Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2025

Wind Advisory 3, NWS Albany, NY

January 29, 20254 states

NWS Albany, NY issued this wind advisory at Jan 29, 2025, 3:12 AM EST for 4 states. It took effect at Jan 29, 2025, 11:00 AM EST. It was in force for 16 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 29, 2025, 3:12 AM EST (08:12 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 29, 2025, 11:00 AM EST
Expired
Jan 30, 2025, 3:13 AM EST
In force
16 hr
Issued by
NWS Albany, NY

Counties Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Berkshire County, MA, Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Washington County, NY, Bennington County, VT, Windham County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 214 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2025-01-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2025-01-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 57 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1998 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
74 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

151 
WWUS71 KALY 290812
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
312 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-084-VTZ013-
014-292200-
/O.NEW.KALY.WI.Y.0003.250129T1600Z-250130T0300Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern
Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern
Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern
Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Southern Washington-
Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Athens, Hancock, Torrington, North
Blenheim, Little Falls, Amsterdam, Cobleskill, Preston Hollow,
Saratoga Springs, Ellenville, Kingston, Troy, Hoosick Falls,
Saratoga Lake, Gilboa, Waterford, Woodford State Park, Dalton,
Eagle Bridge, Woodstock, Stanfordville, Florida, Pittsfield,
Tannersville, Great Barrington, Millbrook, Pine Plains,
Mariaville, Herkimer, Coxsackie, Clifton Park, Arlington, Pownal,
Bennington, Johnstown, Jefferson, Berne, Livingstonville,
Greenwich, Beacon, Sandisfield, New Lebanon, Dover Plains,
Hudson, Stamford, Catskill, Dolgeville, Gaylordsville, Stratton,
Kerhonkson, Windham, Schenectady, West Hurley, Duanesburg,
Rotterdam, North Adams, North Easton, Wingdale, Delanson, Mohawk,
Frankfort, Breakabeen, Fort Edward, Hunter, Amenia, Altamont, New
Milford, Oakville, Stephentown, Ilion, Thomaston, Middle Falls,
West Shokan, Jefferson Heights, Albany, Poughkeepsie,
Middleburgh, Westerlo, Napanoch, Sundown, Gloversville,
Terryville, Londonderry, Hudson Falls, Pawling, Cairo, South
Egremont, Knox, Ballston Spa, Berlin, Burnt Hills, Prattsville,
New Paltz, Cambridge, and Mechanicville
312 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western 
  Massachusetts, east central and eastern New York, and southern 
  Vermont.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KSL
4 follow-up statements
705 
WWUS71 KALY 291533
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1033 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

VTZ015-292345-
/O.EXA.KALY.WI.Y.0003.250129T1600Z-250130T0300Z/
Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Brattleboro, Guilford Center, Bellows
Falls, and West Brattleboro
1033 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Windham County.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-084-VTZ013-
014-292345-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0003.250129T1600Z-250130T0300Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern
Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern
Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern
Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Southern Washington-
Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Stamford, Oakville, North Blenheim,
Coxsackie, Burnt Hills, Dover Plains, Fort Edward, Preston
Hollow, Livingstonville, Rotterdam, Torrington, Delanson,
Arlington, Ellenville, Westerlo, New Lebanon, Hancock, Hudson
Falls, Thomaston, West Shokan, Great Barrington, Poughkeepsie,
Cambridge, Stanfordville, Sandisfield, Cobleskill, Wingdale, Pine
Plains, Millbrook, Troy, Schenectady, Gaylordsville, Eagle
Bridge, Clifton Park, Mariaville, Herkimer, Ilion, West Hurley,
Johnstown, Kingston, New Paltz, Stratton, Windham, Albany,
Stephentown, Frankfort, South Egremont, Gilboa, Jefferson
Heights, Hunter, Middle Falls, Hoosick Falls, Cairo, Saratoga
Springs, Pawling, Berne, Beacon, Napanoch, Woodford State Park,
North Easton, Saratoga Lake, Hudson, Gloversville, Duanesburg,
Mechanicville, Kerhonkson, Altamont, Dalton, Tannersville,
Middleburgh, Woodstock, Greenwich, Bennington, New Milford, Knox,
Londonderry, Terryville, Dolgeville, Amenia, Sundown, Little
Falls, Jefferson, Pownal, Athens, Waterford, Prattsville,
Breakabeen, Florida, Mohawk, Berlin, Catskill, Pittsfield,
Amsterdam, Ballston Spa, and North Adams
1033 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western 
  Massachusetts, east central and eastern New York, and southern 
  Vermont.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MEM
765 
WWUS71 KALY 292037
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
337 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-084-
VTZ013>015-300300-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250130T0300Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern
Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern
Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern
Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Southern Washington-
Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Stamford, Oakville, North Blenheim,
Coxsackie, Burnt Hills, Dover Plains, Fort Edward, Preston
Hollow, West Brattleboro, Livingstonville, Rotterdam, Torrington,
Delanson, Arlington, Ellenville, Westerlo, New Lebanon, Hancock,
Hudson Falls, Thomaston, West Shokan, Great Barrington,
Poughkeepsie, Cambridge, Stanfordville, Sandisfield, Cobleskill,
Wingdale, Pine Plains, Millbrook, Troy, Schenectady,
Gaylordsville, Eagle Bridge, Clifton Park, Mariaville, Herkimer,
Ilion, West Hurley, Johnstown, Kingston, New Paltz, Stratton,
Windham, Albany, Guilford Center, Stephentown, Frankfort, South
Egremont, Gilboa, Jefferson Heights, Hunter, Middle Falls,
Hoosick Falls, Cairo, Saratoga Springs, Brattleboro, Pawling,
Berne, Beacon, Napanoch, Woodford State Park, North Easton,
Saratoga Lake, Hudson, Gloversville, Duanesburg, Mechanicville,
Kerhonkson, Altamont, Dalton, Tannersville, Middleburgh,
Woodstock, Greenwich, Bennington, New Milford, Knox, Londonderry,
Terryville, Dolgeville, Amenia, Sundown, Bellows Falls, Little
Falls, Jefferson, Pownal, Athens, Waterford, Prattsville,
Breakabeen, Florida, Mohawk, Berlin, Catskill, Pittsfield,
Amsterdam, Ballston Spa, and North Adams
337 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western 
  Massachusetts, east central and eastern New York, and southern 
  Vermont.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MEM
196 
WWUS71 KALY 300252
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
952 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

CTZ001-013-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-084-VTZ013>015-300400-
/O.EXP.KALY.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250130T0300Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western
Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western
Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western
Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Southern
Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Schenectady, Troy, North Easton, Bellows
Falls, Hudson, Ilion, Kerhonkson, Dover Plains, Bennington, Fort
Edward, Guilford Center, Middleburgh, West Brattleboro, Little
Falls, Rotterdam, West Shokan, Saratoga Springs, Jefferson
Heights, Mechanicville, Mariaville, Berne, Jefferson, Breakabeen,
Tannersville, Preston Hollow, Cambridge, Coxsackie, Berlin,
Torrington, Amenia, Woodford State Park, New Paltz, Saratoga
Lake, Brattleboro, Arlington, Johnstown, Hoosick Falls, Altamont,
Woodstock, Catskill, Stratton, Cairo, Oakville, Clifton Park,
Middle Falls, Burnt Hills, Gaylordsville, Ellenville, Eagle
Bridge, Kingston, Waterford, Duanesburg, Beacon, Hudson Falls,
Stamford, Dolgeville, Pine Plains, Athens, West Hurley, North
Blenheim, Albany, Greenwich, Poughkeepsie, Stephentown, Mohawk,
New Milford, Stanfordville, Frankfort, Westerlo, Napanoch,
Cobleskill, Amsterdam, Thomaston, New Lebanon, Pownal, Millbrook,
Ballston Spa, Gloversville, Windham, Delanson, Pawling,
Londonderry, Terryville, Livingstonville, Hunter, Herkimer, Knox,
Wingdale, Sundown, Gilboa, and Prattsville
952 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

Winds will continue to gradually subside overnight with a few gusts 
between 30 and 40 mph still possible for a few more hours, 
especially across the Mohawk Valley and Capital District.

$$

MAZ001-025-300900-
/O.EXT.KALY.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250130T0900Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-
Including the cities of Florida, Pittsfield, South Egremont,
North Adams, Great Barrington, Hancock, Dalton, and Sandisfield
952 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Berkshire County in western Massachusetts

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Rathbun
491 
WWUS71 KALY 300813
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
313 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

MAZ001-025-300915-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250130T0900Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-
Including the cities of South Egremont, Pittsfield, Sandisfield,
Hancock, North Adams, Dalton, Great Barrington, and Florida
313 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Although it will remain breezy with some wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph 
possible this morning, the potential for widespread stronger wind 
gusts up to 50 mph has ended.

$$

KSL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Jan 29, 1:02 AM EST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 29, 1:02 AM EST, 2 hours 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
102 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper tonight will bring light to moderate snowfall to the
region with snow outside the higher terrain ending before
sunrise. Then, winds turn gusty again with additional snow
squalls late Wednesday morning into the afternoon resulting in
hazardous travel conditions. Lake effect and upslope snow ends
Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages:

- A period of light to moderate snow tonight will result in
  slippery travel conditions for valley areas from the Capital
  District north and westward for the Wednesday morning commute.

- Winds will turn gusty tomorrow with 30 to 60% confidence for
  wind gusts to exceed 40mph. Gusty winds can result in blowing
  snow leading to reduced visibility. If confidence in wind
  gusts exceeding 45mph increases, a wind advisory may be
  issued.

- Confidence is increasing for snow squalls tomorrow late
  morning into the afternoon (11am to 6pm). Brief whiteout
  conditions and a flash freeze are possible during any snow
  squall as temperatures in the mid to upper 30s quickly fall
  into the upper 20s. Such conditions may occur just before or
  during the P.M commute.

Discussion:

.UPDATE...As of 1230 AM EST, fast moving area of light to
moderate snow has overspread most areas with the exception of
portions of the mid Hudson Valley/southern Litchfield County
close to I-84. Snowfall rates of up to an inch/hour have been
observed. This area of steady snow should decrease from west to
east between 1 and 3 AM, although may linger longer for areas
north of I-90.

Wet bulb cooling has allowed temps to drop into the teens for
most areas where snow is occurring, while remaining between 25
and 30 for extreme southern areas where no snow has occurred.
Temps will rise through daybreak, although may occur at a slower
rate for areas near and north of I-90 due to such cold temps
within the boundary layer.

Previous Discussion:
Late afternoon sun gives way to increasing clouds this evening
as a clipper from the Great Lakes shifts eastward. A surge of
warm air advection ahead of its warm front will result in a
period of snow initially reaching our western Mohawk Valley and
western/southern Adirondack areas this evening (7 - 10pm)
before shifting eastward into the Upper Hudson Valley, Capital
District, northern/eastern Catskills and southern Greens/western
MA regions by 10 - 1am tonight. Temperatures remain cold tonight
falling into the teens so snow will quickly turn any untreated
surfaces slippery. The low and mid-level jet quickly noses into
the Northeast by around Midnight so snow will likely turn
moderate and steady for a brief period as isentropic lift
intensifies overnight. Forecast soundings also show lift
intersecting the DGZ for a brief period. However, the strongest
forcing is rather short-lived and only last for a short-window
on the order to 3 to 6 hours as the warm front lifts to our
north and east. In fact, most of the steadiest snow will end
before sunrise and we only expect 1 to 4 inches of snow for most
areas through 7 AM. The exception is the southern Adirondacks
and to a lesser extent the southern Greens where southerly flow
will upslope the terrain and result in higher snowfall rates and
amounts. The HREF even shows 30 to 60% chance for snowfall
rates to exceed 1 inch from amount 11PM through 5AM. Thus, we
have 5 to 7 inches in the southern Adirondacks with 2 to 5
inches along the spine of the southern Greens.

With the warm front and strongest isentropic lifts exiting into
New England before sunrise, snowfall will quickly decrease in
coverage and intensity (evening stopping all together in valley
areas) by the morning commute. However, motorists should still
allow extra travel time to arrive at their destination given
overnight snowfall and light to moderate snow accumulations.
While most valley areas will be mainly dry Wednesday morning,
upslope snow will continue in the southern Adirondacks and
southern Greens. Despite the dry period, southwesterly wind will
turn gusty by late Wednesday morning as the warm sector
overspreads the region with forecast soundings showing deep
boundary mixing ensuing. With the strong 30-45kts low and mid-
level still overhead, southwesterly winds become sustained 10 -
20mph with gusts reaching up to 30 - 40mph. Up to 45mph in the
hill towns and higher terrain. While probabilistic guidance
shows 30 to 60% chance for gusts to exceed 45mph, we held off on
a wind advisory for now. We may issue one in future updates if
confidence increases. Gusty winds can also lead to blowing snow
and reduced visibility especially for elevations 1000 ft and
higher. The deep mixing within the warm sector will also
support a period of somewhat mild temperatures reaching into the
mid to upper 30s with even some reaching around 40 in the
Hudson Valley by late morning/midday. The mild temperatures will
be short- lived, however, as the associated arctic cold front
quickly sweeps through the Northeast by late morning into the
afternoon.

The incoming arctic cold front raises concerns for snow squalls
late morning through the afternoon (11am to 6pm) as sufficient
sfc buoyancy develops ahead of the front (50 - 80 J/kg) with
some weak sfc convergence and a tight thermal gradient along the
front supporting areas of enhanced FGEN. During any snow squall,
brief whiteout conditions are possible as wind shift to
northwest and gust briefly up to 40-45mph. Given temperatures
warming above freezing late Wed A.M, a flash freeze is also
possible as temperatures rapidly drop into the 20s behind the
front Wed afternoon. With a surge of cold air following the
arctic front, lake effect snow will quickly develop in its wake
late Wed P.M into Wed evening with high res guidance indicating
the lake bands extend far inland reaching the northern and
eastern Catskills and potentially even the Upper Hudson Valley
and western New England. Any lake effect snow band can quickly
product up to 1-2 inches of light/fluffy snow. Upslope snow also
continues in the southern Greens and northern Berkshires and
western Adirondacks Wed evening. Gusty winds will also be
ongoing Wed evening reaching up to 30-35mph so blowing snow
remains possible.

Lake effect and upslope snow continues through Midnight Wed
night but should finally weaken by 06 - 12 UTC as subsidence
builds over the lakes in the wake of the departing trough axis.
Therefore, winter storm warnings and advisories were all set to
expire by 06 UTC Thursday. It will turn cold Wed night as well
with temperatures falling into the teens and even single digits
in the southern Adirondacks/southern Greens.

All in all, expecting storm total snow amounts to reach 1 to 3
inches in valley areas with 3 to 6 inches in the northern/eastern
Catskills, central Mohawk Valley, Upper Hudson Valley,
Rensselaer Plateau, and northern Berkshires. The highest amounts
expected along the spine of the southern Greens and southern/western
Adirondacks with 5 - 8 inches and 6 - 12 inches, respectively.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday will feature a brief break from the busy pattern as
high pressure builds into the Northeast giving us mostly sunny
skies and weaker winds compared to previous days. Temperatures
remain cold under westerly flow maintaining cold air advection.
Daytime high temperatures likely struggle to rise out of the 20s
except in the mid-Hudson Valley which should reach the freezing
mark. Clouds increase Thursday night as warm air advection
increases ahead of our next disturbance. Luckily, most of the
precipitation should hold off until Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - High likelihood of precipitation (50-70%) both on Friday and
again on Sunday night.

 - A lot of uncertainty remains regarding p-types Friday, with
mainly rain or snow expected, but low-end probabilities (under 20%)
for mixed precipitation as well.

Discussion:

As has been advertised for the past several days, the weather
pattern will remain active through the long term period. There
continues to be a large amount of run-to-run inconsistencies in the
models, as well as differences within the ensemble output as well.
While there will be the potential for a few precipitation events,
exact amounts and types remain rather uncertain at this time,
leading to a low confidence forecast.

Model guidance continues to show a progressive shortwave moving from
the Ohio Valley towards the mid Atlantic on Friday, with a surface
low tracking near or close to the forecast areas. After a cold start
to the day, temps (both aloft and at the surface) should be warming,
and areas from the Mohawk Valley on southward will be rather
marginal for wintry weather, as temps rise above freezing.  Just how
far north this warm air gets will depend on the exact storm track.
 The 12z GEFS suggest a variety of p-types will be possible across
the region, with rain, snow and freezing rain all a potential threat
across the region.  For now, will lean the forecast towards rain or
snow based on surface temps, with POPs generally in the 50%-70%
range at this time.

At this point, it appears that the Adirondacks should remain mainly
snow, with the potential of advisory level amounts (4"+) of snowfall
(over 30% chance according to the latest 12z GEFS/Euro ensembles).
Meanwhile, there looks to be a lower potential (under 20%) for
advisory-level snow to the south, but at least a light accumulation
of snow is possible for the rest of the area, especially early on
Friday and again for the tail end of the end as it winds down on
Friday evening into Friday night.  There could be a narrow area
where some sleet or freezing rain occurs in transition zone between
the rain and snow, but the exact location of this is uncertain, as
the 12z GEFS shows a large degree of variability within the members
of the exact placement for where mixed precipitation could occur.

It should brief cool down behind this system, with much colder temps
returning for Saturday into Saturday night.  After daytime temps
below freezing in the 20s, lows look cold on Sat night, with lows
only in the single digits to low teens.   Breezy conditions on
Saturday will make it feel even colder as well.

Another system will be potentially impacting the region for later
Sunday into Sunday night.  This looks to a northern stream system,
although the exact track and how much precip is still in question.
With a colder air mass in place, p-type would more likely be snow
with this system across much of the area, but plenty of uncertainty
regarding exact amounts and timing. Models seems to have shown some
changes regarding the track of the shortwave and just how much
precip makes it into the area, as there could be a better potential
north of the region. Still, there seems to be enough of a potential
for at least some precip for POPs in the 50-70% range for now, but
will continue to monitor trends. Temps will generally be in the 20s
to low 30s through this event.

Some lingering snow showers could continue into early next week
depending on how quick the upper level shortwave moves across the
region. Temps look close to seasonal normals at this time to start
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...LIFR/IFR conditions prevail at
KALB/KGFL/KPSF this morning as stratiform snow continues across
the region. VFR conditions, however, are in place at KPOU where
precipitation has not been reaching the ground. Given the latest
radar and model trends, over the next hour or two, snow could
begin to light up at KALB and KPSF, so TEMPOs were included to
show possible improvement beginning at 07z. However, conditions
will still likely remain in the IFR category. Conversely, trends
indicate that conditions could worsen at KGFL due to heavier
snowfall rates and at KPOU due to snow beginning to reach the
ground so TEMPOs were also input beginning at 07z to account for
the possible worsening of conditions.

Due to the progressive nature of the system producing snow this
morning, stratiform snow should be winding down within the next
several hours. As such, dry conditions are expected to be
reinforced across the terminals by 09-11z. IFR ceilings should
swiftly improve to MVFR and even VFR (KALB/KPOU) through the
morning. However, winds during this time will begin to
significantly increase. Surface winds will prevail out of the
south to southwest to start at speeds generally below 10 kt.
As the morning continues, sustained speeds will increase to 10
to 20 kt with gusts increasing to 40 kt by this afternoon. By
this time, winds will veer more to the west to northwest. Wind
profiles indicate relatively unidirectional flow, which, given
the intensity of winds within the first 1km, could pose
turbulence issues through this afternoon. In addition to low-
level turbulence, another concern late this morning through
this afternoon, generally between 16-21z, is additional snow
showers and possible snow squalls. Any squalls or heavier snow
showers will produce significant wind speeds with gusts possibly
up to 45 kt and heavy snowfall rates, leading to significant
reductions to visibility. Expect IFR conditions within any
showers/squalls that cross through the terminals during this
time period and a quick return to MVFR/VFR at their conclusion.
Included PROB30 groups to account for the greatest temporal
window of these showers and squalls, but uncertainty still
exists in their exact location. Will continue to monitor the
situation closely.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ040>042-
     047-054-058-063-083.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033-
     038-039-082.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MAZ001.
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ013-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...KL/Rathbun/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 28, 3:08 PM EST, 12 hours 4 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
308 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ043-048>053-059>061-064>066-084-VTZ015-291100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-
Northern Washington-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-
Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-
Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Southern Washington-
Eastern Windham-
308 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York and eastern Windham County in southern
Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gust winds tomorrow into tomorrow evening will reach up to 30 to
40mph. If confidence in wind gusts exceeding 45mph increases, a wind
advisory may be issued.

Snow squalls will be possible tomorrow afternoon into the evening
including the Wednesday afternoon commute which can result in brief
whiteout conditions and hazardous travel conditions.

Another storm system could bring snow or wintry mixed precipitation
to the region for Friday into Friday night. Given low confidence on
the storm track, the exact precipitation type remains uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

MAZ001-NYZ040>042-047-054-058-063-083-291100-
Northern Berkshire-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Schoharie-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Western Ulster-
Southeast Warren-
308 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts and
portions of eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Snow squalls will be possible tomorrow afternoon into the evening
including the Wednesday afternoon commute which can result in brief
whiteout conditions and hazardous travel conditions.

Another storm system could bring snow or wintry mixed precipitation
to the region for Friday into Friday night. Given low confidence on
the storm track, the exact precipitation type remains uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

NYZ032-033-038-039-082-291100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Northern Fulton-
308 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Snow squalls will be possible tomorrow afternoon into the evening
which can result in brief whiteout conditions and additional hazardous
travel conditions.

Another storm system could bring snow or wintry mix precipitation to
the region for Friday into Friday night. Given low confidence on the
storm track, the exact precipitation type remains uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

VTZ013-014-291100-
Bennington-Western Windham-
308 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Snow squalls will be possible tomorrow afternoon into the evening
including the Wednesday afternoon commute which can result in brief
whiteout conditions and additional hazardous travel conditions.

Another storm system could bring snow or wintry mix precipitation to
the region for Friday into Friday night. Given low confidence on the
storm track, the exact precipitation type remains uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Albany, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 29, 12:16 PM ESTSnow Squall WarningALYBennington, Windham44 min
Jan 29, 6:26 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYSchenectady49 min
Jan 29, 8:31 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYSaratoga29 min
Jan 29, 10:00 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYAlbany, Schenectady, Schoharie30 min
Jan 29, 10:08 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYFulton, Montgomery, Saratoga37 min
Jan 29, 10:28 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYAlbany, Schenectady, Schoharie32 min
Jan 29, 10:44 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYFulton, Montgomery, Saratoga46 min
Jan 29, 11:03 AM ESTSnow Squall WarningALYMontgomery, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie27 min
Jan 29, 11:07 AM ESTSnow Squall WarningALYAlbany, Columbia, Greene, Rensselaer23 min
Jan 29, 11:29 AM ESTSnow Squall WarningALYAlbany, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie31 min
Jan 29, 11:32 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYColumbia28 min
Jan 29, 11:59 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYAlbany, Rensselaer, Schoharie31 min
Jan 29, 1:43 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYAlbany, Rensselaer, Schenectady, Schoharie62 min
Jan 29, 1:04 PM ESTSnow Squall WarningALYBerkshire26 min
Jan 29, 2:39 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementALYBerkshire51 min

Nearby

Wind Advisories in New York, 2025Wind Advisories in Vermont, 2025Wind Advisories in Connecticut, 2025Every wind advisory in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.