Wind Advisory 15, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
656 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and windy end to the work week gives way to a
dry and pleasant, though chilly weekend for most. However, a
quick return to unsettled conditions will bring additional
chances for rain and light, high elevation snow early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - 0.5" to 1.5" of rain is expected across eastern New York and
   western New England today through Friday with locally higher
   amounts of 2" to 2.5" possible across portions of the highest
   elevations of the Southwest Adirondacks, Eastern Catskills,
   and Southern Greens.

 - Gusty winds on the order of 20 to 35 mph will be common
   across much of the region today, increasing to a range of 30
   to 40 mph Friday with maximum gusts up to 45 mph expected
   across areas of higher terrain.

Discussion:
Potent upper-level troughing extending from the Ohio Valley
through the Southeast has begun to take on a slight negative
tilt as its associated surface low deepens over the North
Carolina/Virginia border. Deep, moist southerly flow
intersecting isentropic lift ahead of the low's warm front and
enhanced surface convergence from both this front and off a
secondary low/surface wave has allowed an area of showers to
develop and expand northward into the region already this
morning.

Throughout the day today, the aforementioned upper-level trough
will continue to fill to the northeast, furthering its negative
tilt and allowing the surface cyclone to traverse the
Appalachians. Forcing for ascent will increase across the region
as the divergent left exit region of the strengthening,
southerly upper- level jet moves into the region just ahead of
the strengthening southeasterly LLJ and the axis of enhanced
isentropic lift. Showers will therefore congeal into a
stratiform rain shield with embedded moderate to locally heavy
rainfall rates, especially in upslope regions of the Eastern
Catskills and Southwest Adirondacks. Winds will also become
gusty, especially across the high peaks, courtesy of the 45-55kt
850mb LLJ and deep layer moisture that could lead to
precipitation loading. However, gusts are anticipated to remain
below advisory criteria (46 mph) outside of any isolated
instances of rapid rain-cooling that could lead to a stronger
gust, again especially at highest elevations.

The heaviest (0.1-0.25"/hr with isolated pockets of 0.5"/hr in
the Eastern Catskills), most consistent rainfall will occur this
afternoon into this evening before the system occludes and dry
air entrainment leads to a fairly significant dry slot tonight.
However, as the surface low moves off to our northeast tomorrow
and its upper-level counter part moves overhead, wrap-around and
lake-enhanced showers will spread into the region. Most of the
additional rainfall will occur at higher elevations where now
westerly flow will lead to upslope enhancement, but some
additional showers sneaking into valley areas cannot be ruled
out. Once again, winds will be gusty on Friday and a little
more so than today given the cold advected environment and
persistence of elevated low-level winds on the rear flank of
the system. However, with gusts looking to range from about
30-40 mph as a whole, we held off on any advisories for Friday
as well. It is important to note, however, that higher
elevations of the Eastern Catskills especially could see wind
gusts near wind advisory criteria on Friday. Therefore, we will
monitor the guidance and issue advisories as necessary. Trick or
Treaters- just be sure to hold on to those candy buckets on
Friday evening!

Upslope and lake-enhanced showers linger into Friday night and
possibly early Saturday morning before drier, zonal flow behind
the departing system reinforces dry conditions regionwide.
Upper-levels will then remain zonal as high pressure builds in
at the surface through Saturday night, so temperatures will be
on the chillier side to start the weekend. That said, highs
today will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with lows tonight
in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Friday, highs will drop a few
degrees into the mid 40s to mid/upper 50s with lows falling to
the upper 20s to low 40s. Finally, Saturday will feature highs
in the upper 30s to low 40s across higher terrain with mid 40s
to low/mid 50s elsewhere. Saturday night's lows will be the
coolest of the short term period with values in the upper 20s
to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday remains dry and seasonably chilly as high pressure
remains in place at the surface with zonal flow aloft. High
temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday with
values widely in the low 40s to mid 50s and pockets of upper 30s
at the highest peaks of our elevated terrain regions. Lows
Sunday night, similarly to Saturday night, will then fall to
the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Guidance is still a little varied in their depictions of our
next chances for precipitation, but the general consensus points
to Monday evening/Monday night as the period where regionwide
dry conditions comes to an end. Presently, a low pressure system
and associated upper-level trough sliding eastward through
southeast Canada look to swing a series of fronts through the
region, bringing primarily high-elevation precipitation. Due to
the current timing and placement of showers, precipitation will
likely not be all rain. Most of the showers look to be confined
to areas north of the Capital District Monday night into Tuesday
morning where colder temperatures will support snow showers.
Some of the guidance, however, has showers making it as far
south as the Mid-Hudson Valley, so a mix of rain, snow, and
rain/snow showers was maintained in the forecast as output by
the latest run of the NBM. Snow showers will be light and
confined to the highest elevations of the Southwest Adirondacks,
Eastern Catskills, and Southern Greens with little to no impact
anticipated at this time. Another disturbance could potentially
bring another batch of showers sometime Wednesday, but there is
little consensus on this element of the forecast at this time so
only slight chance to chance PoPs were included in the forecast
at this time.

Highs Monday will be noticeably warmer than Saturday and Sunday
with values in the upper 40s to upper 50s to near 60 in the
lower Mid-Hudson Valley. Lows Monday night will be in the low
30s to low 40s. Highs Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler than
those of Monday with lows Tuesday night in the upper 20s to mid
30s. Temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night will be similar
to those of Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z Friday...Cigs will continue to lower to MVFR levels
from south to north this morning, as a storm system approaches
from the south/west. Intermittent light showers will move across
the TAF sites through early afternoon, so will mention TEMPOs
for occasional MVFR vsby. Steadier/heavier rain moves in from SW
to NE later this afternoon into this evening as low pressure
moves in. This is when IFR conditions will be most favored at
all TAF sites. Will also mention IFR cigs at higher elevation
site KPSF starting after 12z this morning. Winds will be
east/northeast and steadily increasing through the day to 7-12
kt with gusts of 20 kt developing at KPOU/KPSF. Will also
mention LLWS at KPOU/KPSF developing by later this morning, as a
E/SE jet of 40-50 kt moves overhead into tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...07