Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
154 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will occur ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Some
thunderstorms could become strong to severe with damaging winds
and large hail. Some lingering showers may persist for Sunday
into Monday morning with drier conditions in store through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message:

    - Severe Thunderstorm Watch #277 in effect from Schoharie,
      Albany, Rensselaer Counties and southern VT northward for
      large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado until
      8 pm EDT.

	- Monitor severe weather threat into early this evening south
      of the Capital Region and from the Berkshires and NW CT
      southward.

Discussion:

Update as of 113 PM EDT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch #277 is in
effect from the Schoharie Valley, Great Capital Region and
southern VT northward for large hail, damaging winds and an
isolated tornado. The Watch may need to be expanded southward
into the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW
CT if severe weather trends push southward later in time. SPC
RAP mesoscale analysis show the best SBCAPE in the 1500-2000+
J/kg range is from the Capital Region north this hour with
effective bulk shear of 35-45 KT. Some supercells or multicells
may form with damaging winds and large hail the main threats.
PWATs are in the 1-1.3" range, so some locally heavy rain is
possible especially something trains or back builds. The 700 hPa
flow is strong at 30-40 KT from southwest to northeast so
storms may be moving along pretty good. Max temps will be in the
70s to around 80F with with some 60s over the southern Dacks.

Update as of 1220 PM EDT...Some significant updates to the
PoP/WX hourly grids, cloud cover and timing of strong to severe
thunderstorms. We retooled the timing with the greatest shear
and instability lining up from the northern Catskills, Greater
Capital Region and Berkshires north and east. MLCAPEs are in the
1000-1500 J/kg range and effective bulk shear 35-45 KT based on
on the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

Previous near term...

After 8 PM, around sunset, conditions become less favorable for
storms to become strong and scattered rain showers are
supported to continue throughout the overnight hours as a
surface low pressure system moves overhead and a cold front
finishes moving through eastern New York and western New
England. This cold front will help relieve us of these muggy
conditions and bring temperatures to be much cooler in the 50s
and 40s for higher terrain locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As a surface low pressure system heads north and east that brought
the cold front Saturday night, lingering rain showers are in store
for Sunday with light rainfall amounts. Breezy conditions and cooler
temperatures are in store as well for Sunday afternoon. By early
Sunday night, precipitation should become mostly confined to higher
terrain locations through Monday morning when drier conditions are
in store. Dry conditions return for Monday.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday range in the 50s and 60s. Low
temperatures range in the 30s for higher terrain locations while
elsewhere will range in the 40s. Cool and comfortable temperatures
ahead.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term begins with fair and dry weather with high pressure
building in from the Great Lakes Region over the Northeast.  The
subsidence from the ridge will yield partly to mostly sunny skies
with cooler than normal temps with the exiting trough.  Highs will
run below climatological normals by 5 to 10 degrees with lower to
mid 60s in the valleys and mainly 50s over the higher terrain. Mid
and high clouds increase Tue night associated with a mid and upper
level trough moving into the Midwest with lows in the 40s with some
upper 30s over the mountains.

A storm system continues to organize over the Ohio Valley and the
mid Atlantic Region with some showers lifting northward ahead of a
warm front by Wed afternoon. The NBM is aggressive increasing PoPs to
high chance and likely values (55-75%) late Wed afternoon into Wed
night. Periods of rainfall are possible with the low to mid-level
warm advection, as a coastal wave forms potentially near the
Delmarva Region by Thu morning.  With abundant clouds and wet
conditions max temps will run much cooler than normal both Wed and
Thu with widespread 40 and 50s.  The coastal wave and the mid and
upper level trough that sets up over the Northeast may keep numerous
to occasional showers into Friday morning.  Low temps will continue
in the 40s with some upper 30s over the higher terrain. Latest NBM
probabilistic guidance for exceeding 1 inch of rainfall in the 48-hr
period ending 12Z/8am Friday are in the 25-60% range with the
highest probs south and east of Albany. The showers persist during
the day in the cyclonic flow, as the wave moves away and the mid and
upper level trough lingers.  A drying trend may occur by Saturday if
high pressure builds in from southeast Canada.  Temps Fri-Sat will
still run close to 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z/Sun...Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue
to develop and persist through around sunset, with best chances
for multiple rounds of thunderstorms occurring at KGFL and KALB.
Brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys will be possible within
thunderstorms/heavy downpours. Showers/thunderstorms should
decrease from west to east between 23Z/Sat-02Z/Sun. Additional
MVFR Cigs should redevelop toward and after 12Z/Sun with
increasing coverage of lighter rain showers/sprinkles
developing.

South to southeast winds 10-15 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT
possible through this afternoon, shifting into the west after
sunset with the cold frontal passage at 5-10 KT with a few brief
gusts up to 20-25 KT possible. West winds 8-12 KT with some
gusts up to 20-25 KT expected later Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula/Webb
NEAR TERM...Wasula/Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...KL

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
158 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

NYZ039-041-050-082-171830-
Southern Fulton NY-Northern Fulton NY-Southern Saratoga NY-
Northern Saratoga NY-
158 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FULTON AND
NORTHWESTERN SARATOGA COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 158 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hagaman, or near Amsterdam, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Parkis Mills, Shaw Corners, Barkersville, West Milton, Glenwild,
Greenfield Center, Wiley Corners, North Greenfield, Porter Corners,
Corinth, West Galway, Whiteside Corners, North Milton, Fox Hill,
Randall Corner, Mount Pleasant, Frink Corner, Hagedorns Mills, South
Corinth, and Sky Ranch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
eastern and east central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4333 7390 4326 7383 4325 7384 4325 7381
      4317 7374 4298 7398 4295 7409 4298 7410
      4298 7417 4306 7421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 237DEG 27KT 4301 7413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MEM