Flash Flood Warning 166, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
929 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front lingers over the area through today,
with an upper trough settling over the Southeast by the weekend.
This will bring more unsettled conditions through the weekend.
Impacts from any tropical development would be late Monday
through Tuesday night if they occur. However, uncertainity
remains high regarding this.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Moderate to heavy showers continue to prevail this morning
  across the area.

- Additional heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms are
  expected this afternoon.

- Flood Watch remains in effect for the eastern half of the area
  as some areas could see between 2-3"+ of rain in a short
  period.

Morning surface analysis depicted an upper level low centered
over the deep south, allowing for favorable isentropic ascent
overtop of a stationary front located near/over southern
portions of the FA. PW values this morning were 1.9-2.1" across
SE VA and NE NC. Given the favorable synoptic ascent, scattered
moderate to heavy showers and some embedded thunderstorms
continue across the moisture axis this morning generally south
of the I-64 corridor. These showers have already prompted one
Flash Flood Warning across Northampton, VA this morning and
still pose the risk of some isolated Flash Flooding especially
along the stationary front where a focal point for convection is
located. Temps as of 920 AM were generally in the lower 70s with
some mid 70s across far SE VA/NE NC. Through the rest of the
morning, the moisture axis should continue to push north and
additional moisture will continue to advect across the area.

Over the course of the day, southerly flow aloft will remain
across the area, continuing to advect moisture. Showers and
storms will be continue across central and southern central VA
in the late morning to early afternoon. While across the east
there will be less coverage of showers and storms. Then by mid
afternoon, widespread showers and storms are expected to develop
across the east. PW values will have climbed throughout the day
across the east and will be between 2-2.2", so locally heavy
rainfall will continue to be the main concern. Areal average
rainfall amounts of ~1-2" are likely with localized amounts of
3-5" possible in spots. In fact, the 00Z HREF continues to hint
on a bullseye of 30% of 3" of rain within an hour across SE VA
this afternoon. However, some newest guidance continues to hint
on a further north solution. With taking these both solutions
into account and knowing the atmosphere will be over all
conducive for instances of flash flooding a Flood Watch has been
issued from the Rappahannock river south towards the NC border
covering the majority of eastern VA. Will note that based on
current radar trends, the Flood Watch may need to be expanded
west a little bit (potentially to Richmond). However, will wait
for the 12z model guidance before making that decision. By late
evening the convection gradually lowers with he loss of daytime
heating. Highs today will only be in the lower- mid 70s NW with
upper 70s-lower 80s SE. With lows in the low to middle 60s
inland and upper 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Shower chances continue on Sunday, but with little additional rain
  and less in the way of thunder chances.

- Shower chances increase again on Monday.

By Sunday the upper trough will be over most of the area. While
LLVL flow becomes more N-NE PW will still remain high. This will
allow for sable conditions for clouds and light to moderate showers.
The best chance for a possible thunderstorm will be across NE NC
where better daytime heating is expected to take place. QPF
continues to decease to ~.1" on Sunday. WPC has maintained Marginal
Excessive Rainfall Risk for the far southern portion of NE NC. Highs
for sunday will be much cooler than the previous days as the cloud
cover persists. Highs will be in the  middle 70s inland and upper
70s across the far southeast. By Sunday night temperatures will drop
into the lower to middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast.
By Monday, a shortwave trough will move over the area helping push
the stalled frontal boundary off the coast and bring rain chances
back into the forecast. Highs Monday will be in the middle to upper
70s. During this time PTC-9 will continue to advance norther through
the Western Bahamas Sunday and should be somewhere off the coast of
Florida by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A unsettled pattern continues next week.

- Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane well offshore and
  PTC-9 is now off the coast of Cuba and south of the Bahamas.

Early next week the closed upper low will remain over the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast. While further north a strong high builds
over Quebec and Ontario. Still a lot of uncertainty remains. The
recent 00z model and ensemble guidance consensus show the high
slowly building south toward the eastern Great Lakes by the middle
to end of next week. PTC-9 will likely move N/NW to a position near
the Southeast CONUS coast. There still remains the question if we
see direct impacts of PTC-9. If there are direct impacts from PTC-9,
they would likely be from late Monday through Tuesday night.
Nevertheless, unsettled weather conditions and rain chances will
continue through early next week. Depending the tack of PTC-9
locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible across parts of the
area which could lead to flooding especially with the rain already
expected this weekend. NE winds are likely Tuesday night bringing
breezy conditions across the area. By Wed/Wed night winds will
increase as cold air is advected into the region as the strong high
building southward. This will also allow for drier weather to
finally return. Mainly dry through Fri with rain chances potentially
returning by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 654 EDT Saturday...

A mix of flight restrictions have been noted across all
terminals this morning. Across SBY some brief IFR and LIFR will
continue as some patchy to dense fog has formed across the
Maryland Eastern Shore this morning. However, latest radar
imagery does show showers slowly approaching the terminal and
these showers could bring additional flight restrictions. Across
RIC VFR conditions are prevailing however scattered showers are
noted around the terminal and these showers could bring brief
flight restrictions. Across the SE VFR conditions have been
noted and showers have pushed off to the north. However, some
low level clouds have started to creep in across the area and
could bring a brief period of MVFR to IFR conditions. Over the
course of the day there will be variable flight restrictions as
the cold front to the west pushes showers east. The highest
confidence in a strong shower and thunderstorm will be across
the SE and Prob-30s have been added to the SE terminals.

Outlook: Precipitation decreases in coverage Saturday night,
but sub-VFR CIGs likely linger across the terminals. A chc of
showers lingers into Sunday and Monday with sub-VFR conditions
possible at times.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 AM EDT Saturday...

- Sub-SCA through the weekend, with scattered showers and
  storms today and Saturday.

- Deteriorating conditions and building NE winds are likely from
  for the first half of next week. Continue to monitor the
  forecast and the latest information from the National
  Hurricane Center regarding the progress of Humberto and
  Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (formerly Invest 94L).

Latest analysis reveals a surface cold front just south of the local
waters early this morning. Weak high pressure remains well offshore,
with a second area of high pressure well off to the NW. Winds remain
light out of the E-NE ~5-10kt. Seas 2ft and waves are 1ft or less.

The front nudges offshore this morning. Additional multiple
waves of showers/thunderstorms are expected today, moving NNE
along the stalled front and lifting it back north as a warm
front. winds veer around to the SSE this afternoon and evening
over the lower bay and central and southern waters. Showers and
storms eventually weaken as the front becomes a bit more diffuse
with time tonight and Sunday, with winds veering back around to
the NNW tomorrow ~10kt. Seas 2-3 ft, waves 1-2 ft.

Attention then turns to the former AL94, now known as Potential
Tropical Cyclone 9, and quite possibly soon to be Tropical
Cyclone Imelda. By any name, there remains a fair amount of
spread amongst the deterministic and multi-model ensembles
regarding the handling of this system. At this time, solutions
range from a landfall over the coastal Carolinas to keeping the
system offshore. If the latter were to occur, it would be
largely due to the influence of powerful Hurricane Humberto out
in the central Atlantic. The latest NHC track for Humberto shows
the system increasing speed NW and remaining well offshore,
though in any scenario, Humberto will send increasingly strong
long- period swell toward the local waters for much of the first
half of next week, which will quickly build seas Monday through
midweek. Strong high pressure building to the north will lock
in a prolonged period of elevated NE winds and high surf across
our area due to the tightening pressure gradient and incoming
strong E-SE swell. NE winds pick up to 15-20kt Monday and Monday
night with seas increasing AOA 4-5ft. Winds and seas increase
further Tues into Wed with increasing potential for gale force
gusts Wed afternoon and evening.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ081>090-092-093-
     095>098-518-520-522>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ERI/HET
NEAR TERM...HET/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/HET
LONG TERM...ERI/HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...MAM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>