Flash Flood Warning 151, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
310 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms are expected through early tonight ahead of a
cold front. The front drops south through the area late tonight
into Friday morning, with slightly cooler and drier conditions.
Warmer and drier weather is expected Sunday into Monday with
below normal temperatures returning by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity remain elevated today with max heat
  indices of 95-104F.

- Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible
  across the area today as scattered late afternoon/evening
  storms develop. A Flood Watch is in effect for SE VA and NE
  NC.

A weak cold front extends from New England into the Appalachia
region this afternoon. To our south, a remnant MCV/meso-low is
tracking through portions of SC and NC. This feature is responsible
for the mostly cloudy skies and slightly cooler temps across
southern VA and NE NC. Temperatures are generally in the upper 80s N
of a FVX-PTB-PHF line, with mid 80s to the S. Isolated lighter rain
is currently streaming into NE NC, with the beginnings of developing
convection noted across our northern tier of counties.

Still expecting rather widespread convection to develop later this
afternoon and evening. Northern portions of the area should convect
first as they are in closer proximity to the front. In
addition, there is more of an agitated CU field in these areas,
indicative of an uncapped PBL. Convection could be especially
focused on the MD Eastern Shore where sea breeze boundaries
enhance surface convergence. Further to the south, mesoanalysis
depicts rather stout inhibition in the areas covered with the
mid-level debris cloud from the MCV. Thus, these areas will
likely need more time to destabilize to eventually promote
convective development and timing for storms across the south is
in the later afternoon and especially the evening. The
atmosphere is quite primed from heavy rainfall with PWATs >2"
for most of our CWA. There remains a robust signal in the 12z
guidance (including the HREF) of high rain rates and localized
rain totals of 2-4" in spots. WPC has a slight risk (level 2 out
4) risk for excessive rainfall for SE VA and NE NC with a
marginal risk elsewhere. It is quite difficult to pinpoint
exactly where the heaviest rainfall sets up as there is
dependence on mesoscale and storm-scale boundaries that are
inherently impossible to precisely predict. However, the signal
seems to be particularly amplified across southern VA this
evening as N/NE-moving convection from the remnant feature to
our S interacts with the S/SE-moving convection from the frontal
forcing. It is in these areas where a Flood Watch is in effect
from this afternoon into early tonight. As mentioned before, the
highest threat for flooding is across southern VA (mainly E of
Emporia to Sussex/Isle of Wight Counties and into metro Hampton
Roads). Considered expanding the Flood Watch a few counties N/NW
but am not confident enough at this time to do this. Storms
should generally be sub-severe but cannot rule out an isolated
stronger wind gust given the moist and unstable airmass in
place.

Storms begin tapering off in the late evening but may persist until
around or just after midnight across SE VA and NE NC. In the wake of
the rainfall, patchy fog could develop tonight. Otherwise, low
temperatures in the lower 70s are forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible
  Friday, but coverage should be lower.

- Storm chances decrease on Saturday and especially Sunday as
  the low-level flow becomes onshore.

The front will drop south through the area early Friday, bringing a
wind shift to the NE. Additional showers and isolated storms likely
will develop in the afternoon; however, rising heights and nebulous
upper forcing suggests a lower coverage of precipitation compared to
today. It seems that most of the convection-allowing guidance
develops shower/storm activity either in the lee of the higher
terrain to our W or along westward-moving sea and bay breeze
boundaries in central VA. Showers/storms should moving S/SW through
the day given the low-level NE flow. Reduced NBM PoPs some and
focused the highest (~40%) in the aforementioned areas, shifting
S/SW into the evening. A moist airmass (PWATs around 2") remain in
place so any activity could produce locally heavy rainfall. WPC has
maintained a marginal (level 1 out 4) risk for excessive rainfall
for most of the area. Outside of precip, a seasonably warm day is
expected with highs in the upper 80s. Partly cloudy overnight with
lows again in the lower 70s.

The upcoming weekend should be mainly dry (especially Sunday) as
high pressure builds southward into the area from coastal New
England and the Canadian Maritimes. A weak sfc low likely develops
offshore Saturday but am not expecting any impact from this feature
except for some gustier winds at the coast. Some convergence could
again focus isolated showers or storms well inland Saturday, but
coverage will be even lower than Friday (PoPs 30% or less). Highs
Saturday and Sunday in the mid 80s and upper 80s to around 90 F,
respectively. Lows Saturday will be a bit more refreshing and in the
mid-upper 60s inland and upper 60s-lower 70s nearer to the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm weather continues into early next week.

- Slightly cooler with isolated-scattered showers and storms
  possible by midweek.

- Tropical Cyclone (likely Hurricane Erin) is likely to stay
  well offshore of the local area as it makes its closest
  approach late next week. The main impacts are expected to be
  at area beaches as dangerous swimming conditions develop.

Upper ridging will build near and just west of the area through
early next week. This will help reduce rain chances and allow
temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to near 90 F Monday.
Onshore flow will persist these days, so areas along the coast will
see slightly cooler temperatures. A front will dip down closer to
the area early next week which could allow for increased cloud cover
and keep temperatures in the 80s. Troughing will also amplify to our
north during the midweek period as the ridge retrogrades back
westward. Despite the closer proximity of the front, rain chances
are only forecast to remain in the slight chance to chance category.
The main story for next week is Tropical Cyclone (likely to be
Hurricane) Erin. While the track remains a bit uncertain due to the
closest approach being well into the extended forecast,
ensemble/model consensus continue to show the system recurving well
offshore away from our area. The trough dipping southward into
Northeast CONUS and Mid-Atlantic will be responsible for creating a
weakness in the flow pattern aloft, capturing Erin and swinging her
to the N and then NE out to sea. The main impacts at this time are
the potential wave and rip current impacts to the local area
beaches, but we will continue to monitor any trends in the track and
update the forecast as necessary.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions starts the 18z/14 TAF period with BKN-OVC high clouds
over the SE parts of the FA and SCT CU over the majority of the rest
of the area. Showers and thunderstorms will start to develop this
afternoon as a weak front moves across the region. Have the highest
confidence in ORF/PHF seeing heavier rainfall and storms, so have
included TEMPOs to account for the convection. Elsewhere, PROB30s
are used to narrow down the timeframe. Reduced visibility and gusty
winds are possible with these storms. Winds will remain light and
variable overnight, which may allow some patchy fog to form. SBY
will likely see IFR VIS/CIGs before sunrise.

Outlook: Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms continue through the week. MVFR CIGs will continue to be
possible through the week with potentially IFR CIGs and/or VSBY
(due to fog) possible near sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign, sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected
  through the week.

- Winds and seas will become elevated by the middle of next week as
  likely Hurricane Erin situates offshore.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely on the coastal waters and at the
  mouth of the Ches. Bay due to long period swell and large waves
  from Erin.

Latest wx analysis shows a weak cold front approaching the region
this afternoon and evening with the associated low pressure in the
New England area. Behind the front, high pressure is centered north
of the Great Lakes. A weak low pressure system is over GA/SC and
will likely move offshore and towards the local area this weekend.
With the frontal passage this afternoon/evening, showers and
thunderstorms are likely, especially in the southern Ches. Bay.
Heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds are possible
with these storms. Outside of convection, winds will be light
tonight around 5 kt out of the SE this evening, then becoming
variable. Tomorrow, winds will be out of the NE at 5-10 kt. Winds
will slightly increase Saturday into Saturday night, as the low over
GA/SC moves closer to the FA with sustained 10-15 kt, and gusts up
to 20 kt in the southern coastal waters.

Benign marine conditions will continue for the first half of next
week, while the middle of the week becomes more uncertain. Tropical
Cyclone (likely Hurricane by then) Erin is expected to move into the
southwestern Atlantic. While the cyclone will likely remain well
offshore, depending on how close the center gets to the local area
and the size of the storm, a period of increased gradient winds are
likely. Regardless of the winds, long period swell will likely
arrive by Mon night from Erin. Large seas of 6-8+ ft will likely
build and arrive by late Wed/Thurs.

Low risk of rip currents through Friday at all beaches. Onshore flow
will increase Saturday, causing waves to increase to 3-4 ft, so a
moderate rip current risk is in effect for Saturday. With increasing
swell and long wave periods expected by early to mid next week, the
rip current risk will increase sharply starting Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ087>090-092-093-
     095>098-523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...ERI/KMC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
518 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

NCZ017-102-VAZ098-142200-
Eastern Currituck NC-Western Currituck NC-Virginia Beach VA-
518 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CURRITUCK  AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 518 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moyock, or near Currituck, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Currituck around 525 PM EDT.
  Knotts Island around 535 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Barco, Snowden,
Waterlily, Gregory, Sligo, Maple, and Shawboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 7611 3640 7615 3653 7619 3661 7585
      3638 7577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 259DEG 20KT 3646 7608

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
609 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

VAZ088-089-092-093-142300-
Isle of Wight VA-Surry VA-Sussex VA-Southampton VA-
609 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SOUTHAMPTON...WEST
CENTRAL ISLE OF WIGHT...EAST CENTRAL SUSSEX AND SOUTH CENTRAL SURRY
COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wakefield. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Dendron around 615 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Booth Fork, Ellis
Fork, Pons, Raynor, and Runnymede.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3687 7699 3702 7703 3708 7684 3692 7670
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 245DEG 3KT 3697 7695

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HET