Hurricane Force Wind Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 PM AKDT Thu Sep 25 2025

.SHORT TERM...A very strong hurricane force low is on our doorstep
this evening, bringing high winds, particularly dangerous marine
conditions, and numerous impacts to the panhandle. Currently
visible as a warm air advection leaf in the central gulf,
expecting to see a rapidly developing system move up from the
southwest overnight tonight. For particulars regarding marine
impacts, see the marine section. This low is expected to move
northeast to near Sitka, with the strongest winds expected into
south Kuiu Island, north Prince of Wales Island and extreme south
Baranof Island. Wind gusts in this area have an 80% chance to
exceed 70 mph and a 60% chance to exceed 80 mph. Port Alexander is
somewhat of a question mark, as current expected wind speeds look
to exceed 70 mph, however, given the location of the town, it is
possible that they may be sheltered from extreme winds. Ahead of
the low, a front extending outward is expected to move over Prince
of Wales Island, primarily bringing southeasterly winds, look to
cause the high winds for Ketchikan and Annette Island.

For rainfall, expecting to see a short burst of heavy rain
associated with both the initial front, along with the strong low
making landfall. Fortunately for any hydro concerns, due to the
rapidly developing nature of the low, not expecting any
significant river flooding. There is, however, chances for
isolated thunderstorms embedded in the SWerly winds, enhanced by
terrain. Given the relatively dry air from 700-500 mb and lapse
rates exceeding 7 C/km, it is possible to see some gusty, erratic
winds associated with these cells, however, the chances have
diminished compared to yesterday.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...
Key Messages:
- Hurricane force low diminishes and lifts inland into BC
- Broad multi vortex low sets up over the gulf with near gale force
  winds for north and northeastern coastal waters Saturday night into
  Sunday
- Light to moderate rain with front moving impacting the panhandle
  Saturday to  night into Sunday
- Diminishing rain chances with potential break by early next week

To start the long term forecast period, the hurricane force low
impacting the panhandle Friday will continue moving inland and
should have lifted into British Columbia by early Saturday morning.
Winds across the inner channels will subsequently slacken with its
departure. The pattern over southeast Alaska will remain active
through the weekend however. Moving into the gulf from the west, a
broad low pressure circulation will setup with multiple embedded
vortices. One of the stronger vortices will rotate around and
bring a near gale force front to the outer coastal waters late
Saturday into Sunday. Due to the stalled nature of the overall
circulation, these enhanced winds are expected to largely remain
constrained to gulf coastal waters. With this stronger front, a
band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will also push into the
northeast gulf coast with lighter rain spreading over the rest of
the panhandle.

Through Sunday, the multiple vortices should consolidate into a
single circulation before gradually weakening as the feature becomes
vertically stacked with an upper level trough. At the same time,
high pressure will begin to develop over interior Alaska and the
Yukon Territory. This combined with the weakening low in the gulf
will lead to precipitation retreating away from the northern
panhandle to start next week. For the southern panhandle, some
model discrepancy on the rate of weakening and steering flow for
the low in the gulf could lead to showers lasting into Tuesday.
Looking a bit further ahead, a transient ridge may give the
panhandle a break from any windy and wet weather through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION.../ Through Friday / Thursday and Thursday evening is the break
period.  Onshore flow across the region has continued showers
through Thursday evening.  Ceilings primarily 2000 to 4000 feet. The
Northeast gulf has ceilings from the showers  stacked up along the
coast down to around 700 feet.  The very strong incoming low moves
through the Southeast Gulf and then inland over the south central
panhandle, will see winds moving into the southern half, and strong
LLWS as well.  Flying weather south of Frederick Sound will likely
be not advised while the front and prefrontal winds gusting to 50 to
70 kt, and wind shear.  Northern panhandle will see some wind shear,
but not as strong as the southern panhandle.

&&

.MARINE...An impressive, hurricane force low, currently developing
in the central gulf at time of writing, will move near 56 N 138 W
by 4 AM tonight, traveling NE to southern Baranof Island near
Sitka. This low, minimizing near 964 mb, will take on warm core
characteristics, meaning that the highest wind speeds will be
associated with the southern and eastern quadrants. Currently
expecting hurricane force sustained winds to develop 80 NM SW of
Port Alexander by 10 AM and move into the entrance of southern
Chatham Strait and Sumner Strait by noon Friday. There is some
guidance indicating that hurricane force winds may be shifting
west by up to 20 NM. At this time, the current forecast represents
the most likely track based on current information.

As this low develops and moves northeast, expect to see seas
increase to around 35 ft, particularly at the nexus and just south
of the highest wind speeds.

For the Inner Channels, as the low moves inland, expect to see a
rapid shift in wind direction from northeasterly and easterly, to
southerly and southwesterly storm force winds with up to hurricane
force gusts (exceeding 65 knots) in the afternoon. Along with the
particularly strong storm force winds in Clarence Strait, Sumner
Strait, southern Chatham Strait, and gusts to storm force in
Frederick Sound and Stephens Passage, there is a northerly
component to this system in Lynn Canal. Tight gradients from this
strong system is expected to bring up wind speeds in Lynn Canal to
near gale, with Point Couverden likely to exceed gale force due
to a tip jet in the afternoon.

Please note, while strong winds are common during the fall time in
southeast Alaska, this upcoming system is out of the ordinary.
Mariners should take extreme caution if choosing to venture out on
Friday as it is very much not recommended.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ323.
     High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ326-327-
     329.
     High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ328-330-
     332.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662.
     Storm Warning for PKZ033-035.
     Gale Warning for PKZ031-034-643-644-663-664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032-053-651-652-671-
     672.

&&

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...Bezenek
MARINE...NC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau