High Wind Warning 15, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1016 PM AKST Fri Dec 12 2025

.UPDATE...update for the 06Z TAF issuance...
Only minor edits to the forecast this evening. Sped up winds
a touch early, especially across the northern inner channels and
out of Cross Sound. Snow still on track to work into the southern
panhandle after midnight and spread north overnight and through
the day Saturday, reaching the northern panhandle by tomorrow
afternoon. Overall snowfall forecast for the weekend remains on
track.

&&

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Cold temperatures continue, with many areas seeing single
   digits to teens for overnight lows. Northern Lynn Canal is
   still expected to dip below zero. Dangerously cold wind chills
   continue along White Pass.

 - A front moves northward through the panhandle this weekend,
   bringing snow to a majority of locations. Confidence is
   increasing that locations south of Sumner Strait will switch
   to rain through the latter half of the weekend.

 - Moderate to heavy snow rates expected for the central panhandle
   on Sunday, with precipitation continuing into early next week

.SHORT TERM.../through Sunday/...
The next round of snow begins to move into the panhandle late
Friday night, mainly after 3AM. The front will track northward
Saturday before fading out near the Sumner Strait to Frederick
Sound area late Saturday night. Along this front will be moderate
to heavy precipitation. And with the cold air in place, snow will
likely be the precip-type at the start of this event. As the front
tracks northward, the snow will transition to rain as warmer air
surges northward.

For now, the thinking is the rain will stay mainly in the far
southern panhandle while a rain/snow mix could reach the
Wrangell/Petersburg area. The snow that is able to fall before the
transition to rain will be a decent amount though. Think now is 3
to 5 inches on southern Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan, and
Metlakatla before the warmer air allows rain to mix in. Once that
mix begins to happen, snowfall potential drops and by Saturday
afternoon, mainly rain is expected with rain lasting into Sunday.

That is the most likely scenario. Other possibilities are
centered around the different timings of when the snow-to-rain
switch will happen. The 'warmest' solution brings the warmer air
in very quickly, around 6am, which would drastically lower
snowfall totals to around 1 to 3 inches. The 'coldest' solution
keeps the cold air in place until Saturday evening, around 9PM. If
this scenario plays out, then snowfall amounts would be higher at
around 6 to 9 inches before the transition to rain begins.

As the front fades out, some light precip will drift northward,
reaching as far north as the Icy Strait Corridor by Saturday
night. From the Juneau area to Wrangell, upwards of 1 to 3 inches
of snow is possible Saturday night. Lighter amounts are likely
along and west of Chatham Strait including: Gustavus, Hoonah,
Angoon, Sitka, Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Tenakee Springs.

While temperatures around SE AK will have a wide spread from
north to south, the overall trend for the entire area is warming
temps. As the warmer air pushes north, temps will warm. Granted,
some areas are so cold now that the 'warmer' temps will still
produce snow, especially the far northern panhandle.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/...
A low jumping into the southern gulf Saturday is expected to send
a high precipitation- producing front into the southern panhandle
this weekend. This front will steadily climb northward through
the weekend before pulling back early next week. Persistent cold
temperatures combined with the ample moisture being carried in
with this system should result in widespread precipitation
spreading up the panhandle through the period.

The biggest change that was made was shifting the timing of the
system up a few hours, which in turn will bring snow to the
southern panhandle in the early hours of Saturday morning. As the
main precipitation band moves north following the coastal
mountains through Saturday morning, the central panhandle will
start to see light snow accumulate followed by parts of the Icy
Strait Corridor, mainly Juneau. Light rates will trickle out
through Saturday night before the front sends a reinforcing wave
of moisture up through the panhandle, bringing the more
anticipated moderate snowfall rates through the central panhandle
and into the Icy Strait Corridor. The main forecast challenge
today was determining where this precipitation would fall as rain
or snow, as the initial frontal band is looking to force a pocket
of warmer air into the southern panhandle earlier than expected.
Models are showing more agreement on the front temporarily pushing
temperatures around 40 degrees up into the far southern panhandle
Saturday afternoon, which has indicated to us that the initial
snow the southern panhandle receives will most likely mix into
rain through the remainder of the weekend. As a result, the winter
storm watch that was issued yesterday has been updated to a
winter weather advisory to better encompass those accumulations. A
winter storm watch was also issued for the extended central
panhandle area on Sunday. This includes all communities from
Juneau and the Icy Strait Corridor down to Wrangell.

Totals still widely vary this far out, though moderate to heavy
rates still remain possible. On Saturday, accumulations between 2
and 5 inches are possible anywhere south of and including
Kupreanof Island. Other locations may see around an inch as the
system attempts to spread north. Sunday, the higher accumulations
move to the central panhandle, with between 5 to 12 inches
possible from Juneau down to Port Alexander. The interior
panhandle closer to the coastal mountain range can expect to see
the higher end of these totals. Due to the vastly different
microclimates around SE AK, isolated locations may receive up to
13 inches of snow in that 24 hour period. Confidence largely
decreases on the front reaching further north, though the
possibility still remains of communities in northern Lynn Canal
receiving light snow accumulations from this system. With the
southern panhandle remaining above freezing during that period,
heavy rainfall between 1 to 2 inches is expected Sunday. Since the
timing of the system was shifted up, precipitation on Monday
begins to pull back out of the northern panhandle through the
afternoon, with rates steadily diminishing overnight. Though final
snowfall totals may widely vary from place to place, the longer
duration of this event, combined with the potential for rain on
snow in some more southern locations, could lead to impactful
conditions by the beginning of next week. Another system looks to
queue up behind this one, and combined with the arctic boundary
shifting back southward, may keep active winter weather in the
forecast through next week.

Hyder is the odd one out with this system, as the location may
allow for cold air to stick around longer. A weak atmospheric
river directed into BC south of the panhandle looks to hook up
along the southern parts of the coastal range, drastically
increasing QPF amounts for Hyder in particular. If they are able
to hold onto their cold temperatures in combination with such
increased moisture making it that far inland, total snow
accumulations between 25 and 30 inches from Saturday through
Monday may be possible.

Strong outflow winds begin picking back up Saturday, persisting
through next week reaching at least gale force through the
northern inner channels and out of Cross Sound. Gaps and drainage
channels along the gulf coast will serve as outlets for strong
winds to funnel through, with pockets of storm force sustained
winds looking probable Sunday into Monday. Freezing spray will
remain an issue in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast
with these elevated winds, which could become heavy at times.
These outflow winds pose a challenge for the forecast, as the
strong northerly flow will attempt to force the front to stay more
south and limit available moisture to produce accumulating snow.

.AVIATION.../through Saturday evening/...
VFR flight conditions with some high clouds this evening. VIS and
CIGS lower from south to north overnight into Saturday a band of
snow lifts north, with flight conditions becoming MVFR to at times
IFR under heavier snowfall. Snow could mix with, or change over to
rain, for PAKT and PAKW late Saturday morning into the afternoon
hours as warm air pushes as southerlies increase. PAYA should
remain VFR and north of the snow push through the period.

Strong winds 25-30G35-40kts remain for PAGY through the period,
with breezy winds around 15g25kts for PAHN. Elsewhere, light winds
tonight will increase to 10-15g20-25kts on Saturday, beginning
first across the southern panhandle during the morning hours, then
the afternoon across the northern panhandle and PAYA. LLWS will
also be a concern as winds 2kft aloft increase and become
30-35kts across the southern and central panhandle, and up to 40
kts near PAYA.

.MARINE...
Outside: Northeasterly outflow wind speeds decrease tonight.
Then, outflow gap winds increase again, up to around 35-45 kt, for
the same areas for the weekend. Some freezing spray is possible
for the northeastern gulf.

Inside: The outflow pattern continues through Friday with an
overall weakening trend. Friday night into Saturday, wind speeds
pick back up to 25 to 35 kts, with near 35 to 40 kts back in Lynn
Canal as a low pressure system tracks northward, tightening the
pressure gradient over SE AK. Wind directions will, more-or-less,
go unchanged through this time frame across the northern
panhandle. Freezing spray continuing for Stephens Passage,
Northern Chatham, Icy Strait Corridor, and Lynn Canal through the
weekend, progressively getting heavier towards early week. A weak
system will push into the southern panhandle through Saturday,
with a swap to southerly winds within Clarence Strait.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday
     night for AKZ320>327-329.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for
     AKZ326-327-329.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Saturday for
     AKZ328-330-332.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM AKST Monday for
     AKZ331.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-022-053-643-644-651-663-664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031-032-034-641-642-652-661-662-
     672.

&&

UPDATE...DJS
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Bezenek/NM

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