Gale Warning 96, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
555 AM AKST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SHORT TERM...Key Messages:
-Active weather returns to round out the work week, with the first
 of a few systems pushing into the panhandle late Wednesday night
 through Thursday afternoon.

-Elevated marine winds up to near Gale for North/South oriented
 expected for inner channels early Thursday morning and returning
 again Thursday night.

-Another strengthening low pressure will bring a active weather
 day for the panhandle Thursday night into Friday.

-Heavy snow is looking like a strong possibility for the highways
 in the farther northern panhandle. See the latest Winter Storm
 Warning for details.

-Strong wind gusts are likely for the southern panhandle Friday
 morning with high wind gusts nearing 60 mph possible for the
 Metlakatla area. See the latest High Wind Watch for details.

Details: The active weather pattern has returned in full force as
as the eastern flank of a mid-level trough moves over SE AK,
steering systems into the panhandle. A front moving over the
panhandle through Thursday morning will depart during the
afternoon hours, and a brief reduction in PoP chances for the
northern half of the panhandle is possible, ahead of frontal bands
moving in from another low racing into the Gulf.

As the fronts track into the panhandle Thursday night onwards,
very strong winds will flow into the panhandle through the
southern panhandle. Gales (35kts) are likely for the southern
inner channels and out in the gulf. For areas along and north of
Fredrick Sound, wind speeds upwards of 25 to 30 knots are likely.

For land areas, wind gusts upwards of 60 mph are possible near
Annette Island. Wind gusts around 35 to 50 mph are more likely for
the rest of the southern panhandle. Some gusts nearing 25 to 40
mph are possible for areas north of Frederick Sound through Friday
as the low tracks north. But the strongest winds are expected in
the far southern panhandle. Support for this is built out of the
latest NBM data and the EFI and CDF data.

For precip, the associated warm front moving up from the south
Thursday night into Friday is expected to bring heavy
precipitation. While most areas can expect mainly rain, the
far northern panhandle will likely see snow. Ahead of the front,
northernly winds look to pull cold air from Canada into the
northern panhandle, which would lower snow levels and temps. But
as the front tracks farther northward, warm, southerly air looks
to increase snow levels to around 1500 ft. Moderate to heavy snow
is likely, before the warmer air moves in and allows rain to mix
in. The trailing cold front will help send a surge of stronger
winds through the far southern panhandle on Friday.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/...Precipitation and
winds along the Panhandle late this week should steadily taper off
during the weekend as low pressure over the Gulf as of early
Saturday weakens. An embedded developing frontal wave that should
reach a position between Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula by
early Monday may focus some heavier precipitation in its vicinity
around Sunday-Monday while lighter totals possibly extend as far
east as the Panhandle. Ensembles keeping broad area of low
pressure over the gulf while large spread in operational models
on position and timing of a series of lows moving in from the
west and south. Moderately below normal temperatures, more likely
for daytime highs, across the state during the weekend and into
early next week. Weak upper trough/low just west of the Panhandle
may keep highs below normal over that region during the early-
middle part of next week. Large spread in models with temperatures
with box and whisker plots upwards of 20 deg difference. Main
change to the forecast was use more NBM/WPC solutions which
increased PoP due to uncertainty in incoming systems.

&&

.AVIATION...Frontal bank finishes moving though the panhandle
with a burst of winds and gusts right along the band. Ceilings
anticipated to be 1500 to 4000 feet and surface visibilities of 4
to 7 miles. Front gusty winds early, expect to see LLWS at the
airports as the front passes through by late morning. Turbulence
near ridge tops and rough terrain in the 'windier' areas should be
expected through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...A brief improvement in winds and waveheights on Thursday
afternoon is brought to a rapid end as a gale force low in the
Gulf swings a front across the panhandle by early Friday morning.
As this low tracks north within the Gulf, strong marine up to
gales are likely for the southern inner channels and out in the
gulf. For areas along and north of Frederick Sound, wind speeds
upwards of 25 to 30 knots (strong breeze to near-gale) are likely
beginning Thursday night and lasting through Friday night, with
gales returning to the outer coastal waters.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 9 PM AKST Friday
     for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ319.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon AKST Friday
     for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ323-327-329.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ330.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-643-644-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053-641-642-
     651-652.

&&

SHORT TERM...GFS/NM/GJS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...Bezenek
MARINE...GFS

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