Winter Storm Warning 19, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active pattern continues to be looming for the next several
days. A front continues to push south across the eastern portion
of the state. this will provide the Upper Tanana a chance for snow
showers today. Temperatures are expected to drop behind this front
as cold, drier air follows behind this system. Looking out west, a
front continues to stall across the West Coast. A N-S oriented
front will begin to push over the West Coast this evening,
providing additional snowfall and an increase in southerly winds.
With this, a Winter Storm watch is in effect for the Lisburne
Peninsula and the western Seward Peninsula as the winds are
expected to be stronger there. A couple more systems will
continua to progress across the Bering and over the West Coast
which will continue the active, snowy pattern into the later
parts of the upcoming week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures will remain moderate for a good portion of the
  Interior, today, with the frontal system from the N. Slope
  providing cloud cover. A chance for snow from Delta Junction to
  Northway is possible today as the front approaches the Alaska
  Range.
	- Temperatures are expected to drop this evening as the clouds
   clear. Minimum temperatures between 45 and 55 below zero can be
   expected. Coldest spots will be over the Yukon Flats.

- High pressure will continue to build across the Interior
  throughout the weekend and into early parts of next week. This
  leads up to the first of multiple systems moving westerly from
  the Bering Sea.
	- A chance for snow is possible for the southern portions of the
   Central Interior Monday night into Tuesday. Expected snowfall
   amounts are between 1" and 3" through Tuesday afternoon.

- A bit of uncertainty remains in place for the snowfall potential
  around Christmas. Timing is the greatest uncertainty as models
  are handling the ridge breakdown differently.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A N-S oriented front stalls along the West Coast through Monday
  morning.
    - Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches expected.
	- Gusty southerly winds through the Bering Strait and along the
   Chukchi Sea coast may lead to periods of reduced visibility due
   to blowing snow.
	- A winter storm watch has been issued for possible blizzard
   conditions.

- As the stalled front weakens, another system moves towards the
  West Coast Monday morning. This brings even more snow of 2 to 4
  inches to the West Coast and portions of the Western Interior
  Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Total snow including the
  stalled front of 3 to 7 inches.

- Another weak system brings additional snowfall to areas of the
  West Coast Tuesday night through Thursday. Confidence is too low
  to give a good snowfall estimate.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Winds will diminish rapidly early this morning and conditions
  will improve.

- Southerly winds increase late tonight into Sunday with gusts up
  to 30 mph possible west of Point Barrow and up to 20 mph
  possible east of Point Barrow.
	- The strongest gusts of 30 to 50 mph expected along the
   Lisburne Peninsula and at Point Hope. A winter storm watch has
   been issued for possible blizzard conditions.

- Another system approaches the West Coast Tuesday bringing
  widespread snowfall and some gusty winds to the Western Arctic
  Coast and Brooks Range. Confidence is too low to give a good
  snowfall estimate at this time. Gusty winds could lead to
  periods of reduced visibility due to blowing snow late next
  week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A series of systems will be moving across the state over the next
few days. Starting off, A system continues to push south across
the Eastern Interior. This will continue to provide cloud cover
and keep temperatures moderate, today, and bring a chance for snow
for the upper Tanana Valley. Temperatures will plummet behind
this system as a ridge will begin to build up and colder upper-
level temperatures move across the Interior.

Farther west, a N-S oriented front continues to stall across the
West Coast. This will bring widespread snowfall across much of the
area. Southerly winds are expected to increase over the Bering
Strait and Lisburne Peninsula. With this, a Winter Storm Watch is
in effect for these areas. The system will quickly stall out as
higher pressure will be building over the eastern portion of the
state.

Behind the N-S oriented front that stalls out, another system will
quickly follow behind and bring more snow for much of the state
beginning Monday. The system will continue move SE as it rides
over the ridge that is set up over the Aleutians.

The short-term portion of the forecast period will conclude with
another system pushing westerly, across the Seward Peninsula.
Solutions amongst models are varying with this third system as
some are keeping the ridge more prominent over the eastern portion
of the state, while others do not. This is also resulting in
various timing. That said, this will continue to be monitored
closely as the next several runs will be crucial.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
All of the models are continuing to show the potential for a
storm to bring widespread snowfall across the entire state. Broad
troughing is looking to set up across the state by Tuesday
afternoon. This will be setting up zonal flow across much of the
state. Another system is looking to ride along the trough
Thursday, but some models are handling the solutions differently.
The GFS is currently the most aggressive as it has a more
pronounced energy signature and bringing much more snow widespread
snow across the state through the end of the week. Behind this
system, models are continuing to hint at a familiar blocking
pattern setting up, with a ridge over the Bering. This would
provide northerly flow for much of the state, which would result
in much colder and drier conditions as the next weekend begins.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801-815-820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-808-809-850-853-855-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-854-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
&&

Twombly