Wind Advisory 22, NWS Fairbanks, AK

031 
WWAK73 PAFG 212120
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
120 PM AKDT Wed May 21 2025

AKZ849-212230-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-250522T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Donnelly Dome, The Richardson Highway
from MP 224 to MP 259, and Black Rapids
120 PM AKDT Wed May 21 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The strongest winds have diminished. Southerly wind gusts up to 
40mph still possible through this afternoon.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
118 PM AKDT Tue May 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers in the Western and Central Interior. Isolated
thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior. Light snow showers along
the Eastern North Slope. Temperatures warm through the end of the
week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Showers continue this afternoon across the Central Interior.

-Isolated thunderstorms expected in the Eastern Interior,
 particularly over elevated terrain in the Fortymile Country and
 near the Upper Tanana Valley.

-Moderate southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes
 tonight through Wednesday night. Gusts up to 35 mph possible
 through Isabel Pass and gusts up to 30 mph possible through Windy
 Pass.

-A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with
 highs in the mid to upper 60s this weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Northerly Winds 25 mph mph through the Bering Strait and 20 mph
 through the eastern Norton Sound.

-Light showers return to the Western Interior this afternoon and
 remain through Thursday. Mostly scattered today and then becoming
 isolated Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
-Light snow showers persist across the eastern North Slope this
 afternoon. Additional accumulations an inch or less.

-Northeasterly winds increase across the North Slope to 10 to 20
 mph by Wednesday night. Winds get stronger further west.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A stalled front sits over the Central Interior and Brooks Range
between broad troughing along the West Coast and a building ridge
along the Canadian border. Isolated thunderstorms expected today
in the Fortymile Country as the ridge and front interact.
Scattered showers expected across the Interior along the front
this afternoon. A 533 dam low moves through the trough pattern
tonight and causes the trough to dig south into the Gulf of Alaska
by Wednesday afternoon. This weakens the trough along the West
Coast causing the front to fall apart as ridging strengthens in
the Interior. The strengthening ridge will bring a warming and
drying trend through the end of the week. Another 535 dam low
moves through the pattern Thursday and interacts with the previous
low that moved into the Gulf. At this point models begin to have
difficulty determining how these two lows interact with each other
which will change how ridging across the Interior behaves. The
most likely solution is that the second low wraps into the first
one as a shortwave feature, which will strengthen it enough to
potentially break free of the Arctic low pressure at the top of
the trough. Should this occur the ridge will be able to build in
much stronger than previously expected which will strengthen the
warming and drying trend possibly bringing temperatures in the
upper 60s to low 70s to the Interior. A 594 dam high in the north
central Pacific will try to extend a ridge into the Bering Sea
late Friday, but a 521 dam low moving into the Western Bering at
the same time will prevent a ridge from fully forming. These
features will further complicate the mess of lows over southern
Alaska leading to poor forecast confidence on the finer details of
the forecast after Friday. Generally though, ridging will keep the
Interior warmer and drier with afternoon convection possible each
day Friday through the early part of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showery conditions continue for the Central Interior today.
Showers move into the Southeast Interior this afternoon and will
help to moderate the dry conditions of the past several days.
Another area of showers moves into the Western Interior overnight
tonight. This results in decent chances of wetting rain across
much of the Interior through Wednesday. Showery conditions
diminish Wednesday into Thursday as ridging builds into the
Eastern Interior. This will cause a steadily warming and drying
trend through the end of the week with Interior highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s today rising to into the mid 60s by Friday.
Minimum RHs fall from the mid 30s to low 40s today into the mid
20s to 30s Wednesday and remains steady through Friday. Generally
weak flow aloft will limit winds in the Interior, but some weak
southerly gap winds are possible through the Alaska Range passes
tonight through Wednesday night. Elsewhere northerly winds along
the West Coast slowly diminish through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are expected in the Fortymile Country and Upper
Tanana Valley this afternoon. Mostly isolated, but there is
potential for widely scattered Thunderstorms near Northway and
Eagle. Thunderstorms will be generally confined to elevated
terrain, but may drift north after forming. Isolated thunderstorms
are expected Wednesday afternoon as well, generally confined to
elevated terrain in the Fortymile Country, but may reach into the
Yukon Flats later in the evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Degraded ice remains in place at the mouth of the Yukon River.
Breakup has yet to begin along the Porcupine, although some of the
upper tributaries are beginning to respond to snowmelt. Enhanced
snowmelt in the Chena Basin will lead to gradual rises in water
levels, although there are no immediate flooding concerns.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A broad trough extends from the high Arctic through the West Coast
and into the Gulf of Alaska. Models are in good agreement on this
broad pattern. Ridging builds into the Eastern Interior which
will allow for warmer and drier conditions in the Central and
Eastern Interior early next week. Afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible most days under this pattern in the
Central and Eastern Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

Stokes