Alert archive / Alaska / Wind Advisories in 2025
Wind Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK
NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this wind advisory at Jan 5, 2025, 4:50 PM AKST for Denali Borough, Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, Alaska. It took effect at Jan 6, 2025, 3:00 PM AKST. It was in force for 21 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 5, 2025, 4:50 PM AKST (01:50 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 6, 2025, 3:00 PM AKST
- Expired
- Jan 7, 2025, 12:00 PM AKST
- In force
- 21 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Fairbanks, AK
Counties Denali Borough, AK, Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK
The radar
The Fairbanks Faa radar (PAPD), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fairbanks, (PFAI), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 992 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 273 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 297 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
581 WWAK73 PAFG 060150 NPWAFG URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 450 PM AKST Sun Jan 5 2025 AKZ847-061600- /O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.250107T0600Z-250107T2100Z/ Northern Denali Borough- Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, Anderson, and The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288 450 PM AKST Sun Jan 5 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO NOON AKST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...Northern Denali Borough. * WHEN...From 9 PM Monday to noon AKST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ AKZ849-061600- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250107T0000Z/ /O.CON.PAFG.HW.A.0003.250107T1200Z-250109T0000Z/ Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp- Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259 450 PM AKST Sun Jan 5 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST MONDAY... ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, south winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. For the High Wind Watch, south winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph possible. * WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp. * WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 3 PM AKST Monday. For the High Wind Watch, from late Monday night through Wednesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will diminish Monday afternoon and Monday evening before ramping up again late Monday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds. && $$ AKZ837-061600- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250106T2100Z/ Delta Junction- Including the cities of Delta Junction, Fort Greely, and Deltana 450 PM AKST Sun Jan 5 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Delta Junction. * WHEN...Until noon AKST Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
6 follow-up statements
735 WWAK73 PAFG 061322 NPWAFG URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 422 AM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 AKZ849-070100- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250107T0000Z/ /O.CON.PAFG.HW.A.0003.250107T1200Z-250109T0000Z/ Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp- Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259 422 AM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, south winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. For the High Wind Watch, south winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph possible. * WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp. * WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 3 PM AKST Monday. For the High Wind Watch, from late Monday night through Wednesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds. && $$ AKZ837-062100- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250106T2100Z/ Delta Junction- Including the cities of Delta Junction, Fort Greely, and Deltana 422 AM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Delta Junction. * WHEN...Until noon AKST Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ AKZ847-070100- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.250107T0600Z-250107T2100Z/ Northern Denali Borough- Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, Anderson, and The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288 422 AM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...Northern Denali Borough. * WHEN...From 9 PM Monday to noon AKST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
419 WWAK73 PAFG 062058 NPWAFG URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1158 AM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 AKZ837-062200- /O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250106T2100Z/ Delta Junction- Including the cities of Delta Junction, Fort Greely, and Deltana 1158 AM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Winds have weakened across the area. $$ AKZ849-070500- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250107T0000Z/ /O.CON.PAFG.HW.A.0003.250107T1200Z-250109T0000Z/ Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp- Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259 1158 AM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, south winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. For the High Wind Watch, south winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph possible. * WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp. * WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 3 PM AKST Monday. For the High Wind Watch, from late Monday night through Wednesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds. && $$ AKZ847-070500- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.250107T0600Z-250107T2100Z/ Northern Denali Borough- Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, Anderson, and The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288 1158 AM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...Northern Denali Borough. * WHEN...From 9 PM Monday to noon AKST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
952 WWAK73 PAFG 062355 NPWAFG URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 255 PM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 AKZ849-071600- /O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250107T0000Z/ /O.UPG.PAFG.HW.A.0003.250107T1200Z-250109T0000Z/ /O.NEW.PAFG.HW.W.0003.250107T1200Z-250109T0000Z/ Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp- Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259 255 PM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...South winds 40 to 60 mph with gusts up to 80 mph expected. * WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp. * WHEN...From 3 AM Tuesday to 3 PM AKST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ AKZ837-071600- /O.EXB.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.250107T0000Z-250107T2100Z/ Delta Junction- Including the cities of Delta Junction, Fort Greely, and Deltana 255 PM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Delta Junction. * WHEN...Until noon AKST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ AKZ847-071600- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.250107T0600Z-250107T2100Z/ Northern Denali Borough- Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, Anderson, and The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288 255 PM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...Northern Denali Borough. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to noon AKST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
642 WWAK73 PAFG 071344 NPWAFG URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 444 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025 AKZ849-080100- /O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250109T0000Z/ Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp- Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259 444 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 40 to 60 mph with gusts up to 80 mph expected. * WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp. * WHEN...From 3 AM Tuesday to 3 PM AKST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ AKZ837-072100- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250107T2100Z/ Delta Junction- Including the cities of Delta Junction, Fort Greely, and Deltana 444 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Delta Junction. * WHEN...Until noon AKST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ AKZ847-072100- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250107T2100Z/ Northern Denali Borough- Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, Anderson, and The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288 444 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...Northern Denali Borough. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to noon AKST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
347 WWAK73 PAFG 071354 NPWAFG URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 454 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025 AKZ849-080100- /O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250109T0000Z/ Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp- Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259 454 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 40 to 60 mph with gusts up to 80 mph expected. * WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp. * WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ AKZ837-072100- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250107T2100Z/ Delta Junction- Including the cities of Delta Junction, Fort Greely, and Deltana 454 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Delta Junction. * WHEN...Until noon AKST today. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ AKZ847-072100- /O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250107T2100Z/ Northern Denali Borough- Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, Anderson, and The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288 454 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...Northern Denali Borough. * WHEN...Until noon AKST today. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
609 WWAK73 PAFG 072123 NPWAFG URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1223 PM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025 AKZ849-080530- /O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250109T0000Z/ /O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.250107T2123Z-250108T1500Z/ Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp- Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259 1223 PM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp. * WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ AKZ837-847-072230- /O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250107T2100Z/ Delta Junction-Northern Denali Borough- Including the cities of Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Deltana, Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, Anderson, and The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288 1223 PM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... Winds have weakened across the area. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Jan 5, 1:05 PM AKST, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 5, 1:05 PM AKST, 3 hours 45 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
105 PM AKST Sun Jan 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather is making a comeback as a series of low pressure
systems brings a series of fronts across the Alaska Range,
bringing anomalous warm temperatures, snow, and strong winds.
Much of the Interior will see temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above
normal starting Monday morning and persisting through the week.
Strong northerly winds will continue from Point Hope through the
Bering Strait and to St. Lawrence Island, we are expecting gusts
up to 70 mph through tomorrow afternoon. The Alaska Range passes
will see southerly gap winds as the fronts come across the Range.
Isabell pass will see the strongest of the gap winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:
Central and Eastern Interior...
- High temperatures will begin to rise through the week.
- The Fairbanks area will see temperatures in the upper teens to
20s above. There is a slight chance to see 30 above, however confidence
on that is low.
- The Alaska Range will be the warmest spot with temps near
freezing Monday and Tuesday. They will begin to cool down into
the mid 20s, and remain there through the weekend.
- The Upper Tanana Valley and the Yukon Flats will be near 0
Monday, and then slightly warm up to the single digits through
the week.
- A lingering Tanana Valley Jet will persist into Tuesday with
gusts of 40 to 50 mph. The strongest winds will be tonight
through Monday night.
- Light snow showers are beginning to show up on radar in the
Yukon Flats and White Mountains. Snow showers will continue
through much of the Eastern Interior as a series of fronts
comes across the Alaska Range.
- Heavier snowfall will occur in Isabell Pass, and a corridor
from Coldfoot to Allakaket where we could see 7" to 9" of snow
by Wednesday afternoon.
- The Fairbanks area could see up to an inch of snow. With light
snow showers beginning tomorrow afternoon.
- Blizzard Conditions on the southern portions of the Alaska Range
passes are possible as winds will be gusting up to 60 mph, and
have falling snow.
- Visibilities could be reduced to 1/4 mile or less at times
during the heaviest snowfall.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Northeasterly winds will strengthen slightly tonight with winds
up to 25 mph. These winds will slightly taper off tomorrow
around midday, then reinvigorate Wednesday morning to around 35
mph.
- Point Hope and the Western Brooks Range will see strong
northeasterly winds start overnight tonight and last until
Tuesday at midnight. These winds could gust up to 70 mph at
Point Hope and 60 mph in the Western Brooks Range.
- The Beaufort Sea Coastline and the Arctic Plains could see 1" to
3" of snow starting around Monday at 7PM. The Brooks Range
passes is expecting 3" to 5" of snow through Wednesday.
- Portions of Atigun Pass could see some blowing snow as there
are north winds of around 20 to 30 mph expected with the
falling snow. Visibilities should remain above 1/2 mile.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures will warm above normal, with the southern portion
of the Seward Peninsula and the Yukon River Valley reaching into
the low 20s by Tuesday. This warm trend will persist through
Friday.
- The Norton Sound coastline will see northeasterly wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph through Monday night. There will be strong
northerly winds from Point Hope and through the Bering Strait to
St. Lawrence Island, with gusts up to 70 mph. These winds will
continue through Tuesday Evening. The winds at Diomede to St.
Lawrence Island will weaken, but remain gusty the weekend with
gusts up 45 mph.
- Snowfall will begin tonight from the Y-K Delta to the Kobuk
Valley. Accumulations will be around 1" to 2" tonight. Heavier
snowfall will start around 9PM Monday and last until Wednesday.
The Y-K Delta and eastern Seward Peninsula should expect 2" to
4" of snow while the Kobuk Valley could see up to 7".
Analysis and Forecast Confidence...
A 549 decameter high is centered roughly 250 miles west of
Wrangel Island. This will begin to move west towards the
Verkhoyansk Range in Eastern Russia, and then get absorbed into
the longwave pattern as it weakens into the weekend. A broad area
of low pressure of around 505 decameters will be in the southern
Bering Sea for much of the foreseeable future. Much of the
uncertainty in the forecast will be associated with this feature,
as we move into day 4 and on. The models are not having a good
grasp on the continual development and track of surface lows at
the base of the 500 mb trough.
At the surface a 980 mb is beginning to close off in the northern
Gulf of Alaska. This will bring a warm front across the Alaska
Range that will bring snow potential to the southern portions of
the Range, and to the interior parts of the state. Southerly
chinook flow will develop off of this low, and persist through the
week as a 960 mb low develops and then moves onshore in the Kenai
Peninsula. This low will tighten the surface gradient
substantially by Monday afternoon in the Bering Strait causing our
strong northerly winds. This feature will also bring anomalous
warm temperatures and heavy snowfall potential in the southern
portions of the Alaska Range passes and the Kobuk Valley.
Temperatures through much of the interior will see anomalies of
20 to 30 degrees warmer than normal. The ECMWF ensemble is showing
anomalies of 1.5 to 2 sigma at 850 mb throughout much of the
Eastern Interior.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
General low pressure will continue over the Southern Bering.
Models begin to disagree on the speed and location of lows that
will be ejected north through Bristol Bay and into the Y-K Delta.
The GFS remains a much more robust solution with a 960mb low in
Bristol Bay Friday night. The ECMWF is roughly a day behind that
solution with the low coming through Bristol Bay on Saturday
night. The GFS and ECMWF are showing areas of heavy precipitation
along the Y-K Delta sometime this weekend. The GFS takes a more
westerly path, and will bring heavy precipitation to the Seward
Peninsula. Meanwhile, the ECMWF takes the heaviest precipitation
through the Middle Yukon River Valley and into the Kobuk Valley.
The models are not handling our pattern well, so confidence on
exact timing and snowfall amounts are low. However, there are
signals for heavy precipitation from the Seward Peninsula to the
Kobuk Valley.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ801.
Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
High Wind Watch for AKZ849.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ848-850.
High Wind Warning for AKZ820.
High Wind Warning for AKZ827.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803-850-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ804-805-852.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-856.
Gale Warning for PKZ807.
Gale Warning for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ851-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
&&
DENNISThe office that day
Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 3:40 AM AKST | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFG | 35 hr | |
| Jan 6, 3:40 AM AKST | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFG | 48 hr | |
| Jan 6, 3:40 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFG | 35 hr | |
| Jan 6, 3:40 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFG | 35 hr | |
| Jan 6, 2:44 PM AKST | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFG | 24 hr | |
| Jan 6, 2:44 PM AKST | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFG | 37 hr | |
| Jan 6, 2:44 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFG | 24 hr | |
| Jan 6, 2:44 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFG | 24 hr | |
| Jan 6, 2:55 PM AKST | High Wind Warning | AFG | Southeast Fairbanks Census Area | 21 hr |
| Jan 6, 2:58 PM AKST | Winter Storm Warning | AFG | Denali, Southeast Fairbanks Census Area | 28 hr |
| Jan 6, 2:58 PM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFG | Denali, Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area | 21 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.