Wind Advisory 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
347 AM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A messy winter storm will continue to impact much of northern
Alaska through Sunday. An abundant moisture plume is overrunning
a stalled arctic boundary over the western Interior. This boundary
will divide heavy snow to the west from a rain or rain/snow mix
further east. The heaviest precipitation shifts further north on
Sunday. Where snow is continuous, totals of 1 to 2 feet will be
possible with rain creating icy travel elsehwere. Colder weather
prevails next week with a chance for a few additional light snow
showers.

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Light Rain continues in the valleys and very warm temperatures
  in the upper 30s will continue to bring hazardous conditions to
  the area through Sunday morning. Winter Weather Advisories are
  still in effect through Sunday morning.

- Rain will transition to snow mainly north and west of
  Fairbanks. Snow level will be around 2000 feet and slowly
  dropping through Monday. Rain will finally exit by mid-day
  Sunday around the Fairbanks area. Snow showers will return
  across the Central Interior on Monday. Light accumulations
  expected.

- Heavy snow will continue across the south slopes of the Alaska
  Range from Cantwell to Trims Camp and across the Denali Highway.
  Additional snowfall of 4 to 8 inches are expected through
  Sunday morning.

- Southerly gap winds will remain strong through Alaska Range
  passes into Saturday. A Wind Advisory has also been added for
  Delta Junction.

- Very cold temperatures (possibly the coldest of the winter so
  far) remain possible late week and into next weekend. Lows may
  reach in the -40s below across portions of the area, depending
  on cloud cover. Where there are clouds could be in the 20s
  below.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-  Heavy snow and mixed precipitation is expected east of
   Marshall to Kaltag through Sunday as an atmospheric river
   brings near record liquid equivalent precipitation amounts.
   Winter Storm Warnings are still in effect.

-  For the western interior, additional snowfall amounts of 8 to
   12 inches expected with locally higher amounts to around 18
   inches possible. For the West Coast, lighter amounts of 1 to 4
   inches are forecast and gusty winds up to 40 mph may reduce
   visibility below 1 mile at times.

-  Significant freezing rain is occurring in the vicinity of
   McGrath with up to 1/2 inch of additional accumulation.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

-  Light snow chances spread across much of the North Slope
   Sunday evening and gradually diminish by Monday night. Total
   snowfall amounts range from 1-4 inches, highest near the Brooks
   Range.

- More seasonable temperatures continue until snow chances taper
  off late on Wednesday when below normal temperatures become more
  likely.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...
An unusually strong atmospheric river event to continue across
southern and central Alaska. Strong winds are continuing to blow
through the eastern Alaska Range passes as well. This has allowed
downsloping effects to bring temperatures up above freezing for
much of the eastern half of interior Alaska, allowing for a sharp
gradient in Interior snowfall amounts and will do much the same
into the weekend. An arctic cold front will push to the west on
Sunday and lie from Y-K Delta to Bettles. West of this boundary
most if not all of the precipitation is snow, which will continue
to be heavy in spots. East of the front either rain or a rain/snow
mixture remains in place resulting in very icy conditions at the
surface, thus making travel very hazardous. For Monday and
Tuesday, the west coast will remain unsettled along with strong
winds through the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...
A deep upper level low will swing southeast from northern Russia,
bringing a very cold airmass that will persist into late next
week. This upper low will slowly track to the east Tuesday into
Wedneday. The coldest temperatures of the year thus far are
certainly possible by next weekend, with deterministic models
consistently hinting at lows near -40 below. This is dependent on
any clear skies. Most of the week, the Interior will be on the
cloudy side, which will keep temps from bottoming out. In
addition, some light snow will remain possible over the central
and eastern interior through the middle of the week. Expect breezy
north/northwest winds across the West Coast to create very cold
wind chills.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-841>845-848-850.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ851.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830-846-852.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812-831-832.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ834.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-816-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&