Storm Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

909 
FZAK51 PAFG 251123
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-260315-
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 983 mb low has moved into the southern Beaufort just north of 
point Barrow this afternoon. High pressure in the Gulf of Alaska 
has built to 1047 mb this afternoon. High pressure builds east 
over the Arctic coastline through the weekend.

$$

PKZ811-260315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 NM-
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...NW winds 25 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ812-260315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ813-260315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 NM-
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ814-260315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 NM-
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ815-260315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 NM-
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt becoming NW. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ857-260315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 NM-
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

.TODAY...SW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ858-260315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 NM-
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ859-260315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 NM-
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ860-260315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 NM-
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ861-260315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 NM-
223 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt.  

$$

Jan 25

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
254 PM AKST Fri Jan 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A messy winter storm will continue to impact much of northern
Alaska through the upcoming weekend. A surge of deep moisture
continues to stream over much of the Interior producing steady and
sometimes heavy precipitation. A stalled arctic front under the
moisture plume will divide heavy snow to the west from a rain or
rain/snow mix further east. This front will begin to shift
eastwards by late Sunday, as the moist plume moves a bit further
north and begins to get shut off. Where snow is continuous,
totals of 1 to 2 feet will be possible with rain creating icy
travel elsehwere. Colder weather prevails next week with a chance
for a few additional light snow showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Very warm temperatures in the 30s and 40s will continue to
  bring sloppy conditions to the area through Sunday.

- Rain will transition to heavy wet snow mainly north and west of
  Fairbanks this evening. By Friday evening, over a foot of snow
  is expected at higher terrain along the Dalton Highway between
  the Yukon River and Atigun Pass.

- Heavy snow will continue across the south slopes of the Alaska
  Range from Cantwell to Trims Camp and across the Denali Highway.
  Snow amounts of 12-20 inches are expected through Sunday
  morning.

- Ahead of an approaching cold front, southerly gap winds will
  remain strong through Alaska Range passes into Saturday.

- A NE to SW oriented cold front will stall across the interior
  this weekend with heavy snowfall west of the front likely.
  Confidence is the position of the front is increasing, with it
  likely setting up just east of Tanana. Light rain is expected to
  mix with snow along and east of the cold front.

- Behind the cold front, colder temperatures will take over next
  week along with a chance for scattered light snow showers.

- Very cold temperatures (possibly the coldest of the winter so
  far) remain possible late week and into next weekend. Lows may
  reach the -40 to -50 F range across portions of the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Impacts have mostly ended across the West Coast as the fast
  moving storm has moved north.

- Heavy snow and mixed precipitation is expected east of Marshall
  to Kaltag through Sunday as an atmospheric river brings near
  record liquid equivalent precipitation amounts.

- Water is expected to come up through cracks in the sea ice and
  make travel over the sea ice very difficult for much of the West
  Coast through the early part of the weekend.

- More seasonable temperatures return Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Very strong south winds gusting 50 to 60 mph will continue
  through Brooks Range Passes will subside this evening. However
  winds will remain strong enough through the passes to keep a
  blowing snow hazard in place. As such a Winter Weather Advisory
  will replace the High Wind Warning for the Central Brooks
  Range.

- Strong winds along the North Slope will continue to produce near
  blizzard conditions into the early evening hours tonight. These
  winds should subside overnight with improvements to visibility
  by early Saturday.

- More seasonable temperatures return to the area Sunday through early
  next week when a wave of light snow is possible across the
  eastern North Slope.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...
The combination of a strong Siberian trough and an equally strong
northern Pacific ridge has allowed an unusually strong
atmospheric river event to continue across southern and central
Alaska. As of this afternoon moisture laden air continues to
stream north into the interior producing very heavy snowfall as
well as steady rains across portions of the region. Meanwhile a
fast moving low pressure system has moved into the southern
Beaufort Sea and continues to produce very strong winds through
the Brooks Ranges and along the Arctic coastline. This has
resulted in plenty of blowing snow and even blizzard conditions in
spots. As this low track further into the Beaufort, wind speeds
should begin to diminish, but some blowing snow will continue
through the passes and along the eastern Arctic coast into
Saturday morning.

Further south strong winds are continuing to blow through the
eastern Alaska Range passes as well. This has allowed downsloping
effects to bring temperatures up above freezing for much of the
eastern half of interior Alaska, allowing for a sharp gradient in
Interior snowfall amounts today and will do much the same into
the weekend. Currently, an arctic cold front has set up roughly
along a line extending from near Tanana southwest through McGrath
and back to near Sleetmute. West of this boundary most if not all
of the precipitation is snow, which will continue to be heavy in
spots. East of the front either rain or a rain/snow mixture
remains in place resulting in very icy conditions at the surface,
thus making travel very hazardous.

Looking ahead the front will not show much movement Saturday
resulting in near identical conditions as today. By sunday the
front should start making slow progress eastward changing some
areas near the front back over to all snow. But precipitation
should be ending across much of the central Interior as the
moisture plume will be shifting north. This is in response to
the Siberian upper trough shifting east over Alaska.

As for temperatures, colder conditions will set in
Monday (meaning at, or maybe a bit below normal). At the same
time another surface low will track through western Alaska
bringing additional snowfall to portions of western and northern
Alaska.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...
A deep upper level low will swing southeast from northern Russia
early next week, bringing a very cold airmass that will persist
across the area through next week and into the weekend. The
coldest temperatures of the year thus far are certainly possible
by the weekend, with deterministic models consistently hinting at
lows in the -40 to -50 F range. In addition, some light snow will
remain possible over the central and eastern interior through the
middle of the week. Expect breezy north/northwest winds across
the West Coast to create very cold wind chills.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801>803-806-807-814.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830-846-851-852.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812-831-832.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ826.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ834.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-841>845.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ809.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805>807-810-816-817-850>852-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Storm Warning for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814-815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
     Storm Warning for PKZ859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&

Laney