High Wind Watch 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
401 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Less active weather is expected today across Northern Alaska,
with winds largely subsiding across the western coastal waters
and across the Alaska Range. While snowfall is still ongoing
in some areas, it will generally diminish through Thursday
morning, after which additional snowfall will fall over the
Fortymile Country and areas along the Alaska Highway. A series
of lows over the North Pacific will move north on Saturday and
Sunday and will bring the next string of active weather this
weekend and early next week, with widespread precipitation,
northerly winds, and warmer-than-normal conditions in Western
Alaska. Elsewhere in the area will not be as wet, but areas of
snow are still possible, with broadly elevated winds in the
Interior likely, especially over the Alaska Range. Parts of the
Interior may see temperatures rise well into the 30s on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

* Ongoing gusty winds through the Alaska Range will continue to
  weaken through this afternoon and into tonight. Winds will
  pick up again Friday afternoon through

* Temperatures well above average are expected to continue:
 - Widespread high temperatures in the teens and 20s are
   expected. Some areas will see highs in the 30s.
 - The Yukon Flats will be colder than most of the rest of the
   Interior, with temps likely remaining in the single digits.

* Snow diminishes across the Interior:
 - While snow will continue through this evening across the
   Northern Interior and Brooks Range, further accumulations
   will be limited. Most snow should end by late morning
   Thursday.

* Increasing east and northeast winds expected over the Dalton
  highway summits are expected Thursday, likely resulting in
  reduced visibility in blowing snow.

* A wave moving north along the eastern border will result in
  some light snow over the Alaska Highway and the Fortymile
  Country on Thursday. Accumulations could be around an inch.

* Winds will briefly increase in the Alaska Range passes on
  Friday, with max gusts potentially over 50 mph.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

* Winds up to around 35 mph continue across the Chukchi Sea and
  at Point Hope. However these winds will continue to diminish
  through the day today.

* Continuing snow in the Brooks Range and over parts of the
  eastern Arctic Coast will taper off and end this evening. Some
  light snow will be possible over the western Arctic Coast
  Thursday afternoon and evening. Light to moderate snowfall
  will be possible for the Western North Slope Saturday into
  Sunday as a system crosses the Bering Sea, with heavier snow
  possible late Sunday into Monday with another system.

West Coast and Western Interior...

* Ongoing strong north winds through the Chukchi Sea, Bering
  Strait, and Bering Sea will continue to weaken through the day
  today.

* Winds in the Bering Sea will rise and fall multiple times
  over the next several days as a series of lows move through.
  The first will see north winds through the Bering Sea and
  Bering Strait potentially increase back into the 45 to 55 mph
  range Thursday evening into Friday before they briefly decline
  somewhat ahead of a second low on Saturday and a third and
  strongest low on Sunday.

* Widespread snowfall and, in warmer places which may include
  the YK Delta, mixed precipitation or rain, is likely for
  multiple days beginning Friday morning as a low moves into the
  Bering Sea. Heaviest precipitation will be Sunday into early
  next week with a stronger low.

* Above-normal temperatures are expected as temperatures rise
  widely into the teens and 20s. Areas near the northern slopes
  of the Alaska Range in particular, including McGrath, may see
  temperatures rise to near 30 today.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...
A 991 mb low is in place over the Bering Sea, with a weakening
high pressure area over eastern Siberia, with weakening
northerly gradient winds through the Bering and Chukchi Seas.
Southerly winds through the Alaska Range are also generally
weakening and are expected to continue to do so through
tomorrow. Tomorrow, as an upper-level shortwave trough moves
along the eastern border, a quick north-moving burst of snow
will fall across the Alaska Highway and Fortymile Country
through Thursday evening, after which most models agree on
extending snow westward in a lengthy band of snow extending into
the Western Interior which will lift north. Moving into Friday,
a low will move into the Bering Sea and bring the first of
multiple rounds of widespread precipitation to the West Coast
and Western Interior, which will continue into the extended time
frame with a stronger low in the mid 950s mb moving in on
Sunday. There is uncertainty on where precipitation will fall as
mixed precipitation as compared to pure snow, but mixed
precipitation is more likely further south, including over the
YK Delta and the Lower Yukon River Valley.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
General low pressure over Western Alaska and adjacent marine
waters will continue into the extended time frame with yet
another strong low pressure center moving north through the
region Sunday and Monday, bringing more wind and precipitation.
A return of strong north winds over the western marine waters is
possible with this low pressure circulation Sunday. Some areas,
including the Seward Peninsula and parts of the Western
Interior, could see several inches of additional snow (some of
which may be mixed phase), potentially totaling upwards of an
inch of liquid equivalent precipitation in spots. The Central
and Eastern Interior and North Slope will see heightened winds
with this system as well and could also see some snowfall,
although any accumulations are likely to be lower than those in
Western Alaska. With strong Chinooking likely through the Alaska
Range late weekend into early next week, temperatures in the
Interior will increase significantly. Some areas, including the
Fairbanks area, may see temperatures rise well into the 30s to
near 40 on Sunday. Widespread highs in the 30s are possible for
the Western Interior during this same time frame. Winds over the
Alaska Range with the aforementioned Chinook event will likely
be strong Sunday, with the ECMWF ensemble at the McKinley Park
site having numerous members with winds exceeding 70 to 80 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-811-816-817-851-854-856-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
&&

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
718 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2025

AKZ837>845-091500-
Delta Junction-Upper Chena River Valley-Tanana Flats-
Eielson AFB and Salcha-Goldstream Valley and Nenana Hills-
Chatanika River Valley-Two Rivers-Fairbanks Metro Area-Nenana-
Including Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Deltana,
Chena Hot Springs, Chena Hot Springs Road east of MP 34,
Birch Lake, The Richardson Highway from MP 295 to MP 317,
Eielson AFB, Salcha, Moose Creek, Harding Lake,
The Richardson Highway from MP 317 to MP 346, Ester Dome,
Murphy Dome, The Parks Highway from MP 325 to MP 342, Haystack,
The Elliott Highway from MP 1 to MP 32,
The Steese Highway from MP 12 to MP 85, Two Rivers,
Chena Hot Springs Road from MP 12 to MP 34, Fairbanks,
Fort Wainwright, Ester, North Pole, Fox, Nenana,
and The Parks Highway from MP 290 to 325
718 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2025

...Strong Chinook This Weekend...

A low pressure system will bring strong southerly winds across the
Alaska Range. Some of these winds are expected to make it to the
Fairbanks area with gusts of 20 to 35 mph being possible. This
pattern will bring unseasonably warm to near record temperatures
from Fairbanks to Delta Junction on Sunday. On Sunday we are
expecting temperatures in the valley to be up to 40 degrees and
the Fairbanks Hills possibly as high as the mid to upper 40s.

For reference, the daily record maximum temperature on the 12th
is 39 degrees.

Strong winds could cause tree limbs to fall since there remains
snow on trees. Road conditions could be impacted with
temperatures above freezing on Sunday, and then refreezing
overnight Sunday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
718 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2025

AKZ813-819-822-823-825-826-828>830-091500-
South Slopes of the Western Brooks Range-Upper Kobuk Valleys-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-Interior Seward Peninsula-
Yukon Delta Coast-Lower Yukon River-Lower Koyukuk Valley-
Middle Yukon Valley-Lower Yukon and Innoko Valleys-
Including Walker Lake, Ambler, Shungnak, Kobuk, Nome,
White Mountain, Golovin, Serpentine Hot Springs, Council,
Haycock, Pilgrim Springs, Taylor, Mountain Village, Emmonak,
Alakanuk, Kotlik, Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, Nunam Iqua, Chevak,
Russian Mission, St Marys, Pilot Station, Marshall, Huslia,
Hughes, Galena, Nulato, Kaltag, Ruby, Koyukuk, Grayling,
Holy Cross, Shageluk, and Anvik
718 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2025

...Active Weather Will Return This Weekend...

A series of lows will track up the western portions of the state
this weekend. Snow will begin to fall Friday morning and will
persist until Tuesday afternoon. There is the potential to see
heavy snowfall, significant blowing snow, strong winds, and
drifting snow, especially Sunday when the strongest storm is
projected to move across the region. There is a chance to see
mixed precipitation from the Y-K Delta to the southern Seward
Peninsula.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
738 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2025

AKZ813-819-821>830-091500-
South Slopes of the Western Brooks Range-Upper Kobuk Valleys-
Bering Strait Coast-Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Interior Seward Peninsula-Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
Yukon Delta Coast-Lower Yukon River-St Lawrence Island-
Lower Koyukuk Valley-Middle Yukon Valley-
Lower Yukon and Innoko Valleys-
Including Walker Lake, Ambler, Shungnak, Kobuk, Wales,
Brevig Mission, Teller, Nome, White Mountain, Golovin,
Serpentine Hot Springs, Council, Haycock, Pilgrim Springs,
Taylor, Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk,
Shaktoolik, Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik,
Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, Nunam Iqua, Chevak, Russian Mission,
St Marys, Pilot Station, Marshall, Gambell, Savoonga, Huslia,
Hughes, Galena, Nulato, Kaltag, Ruby, Koyukuk, Grayling,
Holy Cross, Shageluk, and Anvik
738 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2025

...Active Weather Will Return This Weekend...

A series of lows will track up the western portions of the state
this weekend. Snow will begin to fall Friday morning and will
persist until Tuesday afternoon. There is the potential to see
heavy snowfall, significant blowing snow, strong winds, and
drifting snow, especially Sunday when the strongest storm is
projected to move across the region. There is a chance to see
mixed precipitation from the Y-K Delta to the southern Seward
Peninsula.