Gale Warning 97, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
402 PM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong low in Bristol Bay Wednesday afternoon will weaken
through Thursday morning before moving inland. A new low will
begin to deepen near Norton Sound by Thursday afternoon. A
sprawling warm front will lift north along the West Coast and
Western Interior bringing mixed precipitation and messy
conditions. Across the Interior, strong Chinook flow will bring
southerly gap winds as high as 80 mph through Alaska Range Passes
and at Delta Junction and near Healy. High pressure over the
Beaufort Sea will bring strong easterly winds and blizzard
conditions to the Arctic Coast Thursday and Friday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Strong gap winds Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning with
  gusts of 70 to 80 mph possible through Alaska Range Passes and
  near Delta Junction and Healy. High Wind Warnings are in effect.

- Temperatures warm through the week with highs in the mid 40s to
  mid 50s by Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A Northern Pacific low moves in on Wednesday with widespread
  rain and snow.
	- Higher terrain above 1500 feet will remain mostly all snow.
	- SW Alaska and Western Interior should begin as all snow through
   Wednesday afternoon, then change to rain in the valleys/under
   1500 feet by evening.
	- Coastal areas will be a bit colder and stay snow through the
   evening.
	- Nome and the Seward Peninsula will be right on the changeover
   line. Eastern Seward Peninsula looks to change to rain
   Wednesday night, while the western Seward Peninsula may stay
   all snow.

Snowfall Totals:
- There will be a wide range with the potential for 6 inches or
  more above 1500 feet. 2 to 8 inches along the coast (Heaviest
  along the YK Delta Coast). 1 to 4 in Western Interior Valleys.

- Most precipitation ends Thursday night into Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Blizzard Warnings have been issued for Thursday through Friday
  along the Arctic Coast. Easterly winds will gust as high as 50
  mph. Expect 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation.

- Light snow in the Brooks Range is likely Thursday morning and
  may become heavier in the afternoon.
	- Snow looks to diminish in coverage during the evening and
   overnight.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A broad upper ridge positioned over much of Interior Alaska will
build north and east with time as a nearly stacked low begins to
pivot and lift inland by late Thursday. The upper low will elongate
with the northern end deepening as the southern end weakens into an
open wave. In response, the surface low near Bristol Bay will weaken
with a new surface low beginning to develop to the south of Norton
Bay by late Thursday. At the surface, a warm front, currently
extending from to west to east across Interior Alaska, will continue
to push northwards Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures to
the north of this front are sitting in the teens to near freezing
with temperatures behind the front warming into the 30s and 40s.
Besides the warmer temperatures, this front will also transport
abundant moisture northwards. The combination of warmer temperatures
and moisture will make for a mix of precipitation types across
northern Alaska. A stout area of high pressure north of 80 degrees
latitude will sag south helping to prevent the upper low from making
too much further northward progress...becoming blocked over
northwest Alaska. A tight pressure gradient will develop over the
Arctic Coast as the warm front approaches, albeit somewhat modified,
leading to light snow and strong winds at the surface. Blizzard
Warnings will be in effect for the anticipated reduction in
visibility from blowing snow beginning early Thursday morning and
continuing through Friday night.

Further south near the Alaska Range, a steep pressure gradient has
led to prime Chinook conditions with gusts as high as 80 mph
through the favored gaps and passes. High Wind Warnings remain in
effect for the Alaska Range through Thursday morning. The gradient
will then begin to relax by mid-morning Thursday allowing winds
to decrease.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

A broad trough will reform over Alaska and the storm track looks
to continue to be active tracking into Bristol Bay. Weak ridging
will form over the Interior Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures look
to be near normal with above normal precipitation. Periods of
light rain cannot be ruled out across the Interior next week.
Otherwise, weather related impacts look to be minimal.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ802>805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>805-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-812-854-856>858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-851>853.

&&

PP