Gale Warning 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1250 AM AKST Wed Mar 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
No change to forecast thinking, with blizzard conditions expected
over the Bering Strait today into Thursday as strong storm force
north winds move down the Strait. Snow and blowing snow will
impact the YK Delta to E Norton Sound and into Nome. South winds
through the AK Range will be gusty through Isabel Pass into the
60+ mph range, with 50 mph winds through Delta Junction from the
east. Blizzard conditions are expected to Kaktovik as east winds
ramp up to 50+ mph later today. Chances for snow increase over the
Interior Thu and Fri as the warm south flow ends and temps
moderate back to seasonal norms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a large 507 dam upper trough spanning the entire
Aleutian Chain with a leading shortwave trough moving into Bristol
Bay. There is a high amplitude negative tilt upper ridge over the
Yukon and E Alaska Mainland. There is a closed arctic low over E
Siberia and the Chukchi Sea, with heights around 506 dam. The
surface low moving into Bristol Bay is in the low 980 mb range. An
arctic front persists over the West Coast with snow showers along
it, and some mixed rain over the Lower Yukon Valley.

Forecast Analysis and Discussion...
The Bristol Bay low will move up to the Kuskokwim Delta and
tighten the Bering Strait gradient with storm force winds and
heavy snow, resulting in blizzard conditions later today into Thu
for the Strait and Saint Lawrence. Blowing snow will impact Norton
Sound to the YK Delta. The gradient across the AK Range will
support 50+ mph south winds through the passes and 50 mph winds
from the east through Delta Junction. The leading shortwave trough
will move toward the Arctic and support increasing east winds and
blizzard conditions for Kaktovik later today through Thu. Energy
rotating from a Gulf low moves into the Interior Thu and Fri with
cooling temps and chances for snow. We favored the GFS/ECMWF blend
which does dramatically increase snow chances even for Fairbanks
by Thu.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Another warm day today as temps continue to be well above
seasonal norms. There may be a few 40 degree readings but it will
be a few degrees cooler today overall. Winds near the AK Range
increase today and it will become gusty in the afternoon
throughout the Interior, although the strongest winds and near
Isabel Pass and Delta Junction where wind advisories remain in
effect.

The gradient weakens and temps cool Thu and Fri as chances for
snow increase in conjunction with a closing off low moving into
the Interior from the Gulf. The best chances for snow look to
come Thu and Thu night into early Fri. Right now confidence is
very low with the best chances over the White Mtns and higher
terrain around the Yukon-Tanana Uplands.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Blizzard warnings remain in effect for Saint Lawrence to the
Bering Strait with peak winds and blowing snow expected late this
afternoon through tonight, but continuing into Thursday. North
winds wane Friday with a brief period of drying. Prior to that,
snow will continue over the West Coast with mixed rain over the
Yukon Valley. Winter weather advisories are in effect for snow and
blowing snow for the Seward Pen and E Norton Sound to the YK Delta
today.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
East winds continue to increase over the E Arctic, with gale force
sustained winds bringing blizzard conditions to Kaktovik, and
more minor blowing snow all the way through Prudhoe Bay. Rounds of
light snow will continue over the W Arctic into the weekend.
Winds wane over Kaktovik Thu night but they will keep blowing into
the 25 to 30 mph range through Friday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A strong low is moving into the W Bering Sea and will shift an
occluded front into the N Bering Sea to Bristol Bay Sat night and
Sunday with another round of snow, mixed rain, and blustery
southeast winds. The Interior looks drier again with cooler high
pressure and more normal temps. By the middle of next week there
will be high pressure over the Mainland in firm control.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>805-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-850-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ860.
&&

Ahsenmacher