Gale Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
256 AM AKST Sun Jan 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold weather of the past week is coming to an end with the
arrival of a series of low pressure systems bringing warmer
temperatures, stronger winds, and waves of snow to northern
Alaska for the remainder of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...
-Warmer this morning with highs near 0, except in the Yukon Flats
 and upper Tanana Valley where highs of -10 to -15 are expected.
 Temperatures further increase into the teens above Monday and
 Tuesday with colder spots reaching near 0 Monday and above 0
 Tuesday.

-The Tanana Valley Jet persists through the end of the week, with
 gusts 45 to 55 mph.

-Gusty southerly gap winds ramp up in the Alaska Range Sunday
 night into Monday afternoon with gusts of 50 to 60 mph in the
 Eastern Alaska Range passes. Winds diminish briefly Monday
 evening and Monday night before ramping up once again Tuesday.

-A wave of snow moves across the Interior this morning through
 Tuesday AM. Highest snow amounts from Arctic Village to near
 Stevens Village where 2 to 3 inches of snow are possible and 3 to
 5 inches in the eastern Alaska Range south of Trims Camp.

-Another wave of snow comes Tuesday night through Thursday. Snow
 will be more widespread than the first wave. With the heaviest
 falling from the Dalton Highway Summits through the Kobuk Valley
 with 5 to 8 inches across 2 and a half days expected. The
 Fairbanks Area south to the Alaska Range will see 1 to 2 inches
 with little to no accumulations for the upper Tanana Valley and
 areas from Eagle south. The Yukon Flats will see between 2 and 4
 inches. Another 3 to 5 inches along the southern slopes of the
 eastern Alaska Range south of Trims Camp is expected.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Along the coast strong northeasterly winds with gusts of 30 to 40
 mph this morning from the Seward Peninsula south. These winds
 shift more northerly this evening.

-Northerly winds strengthen overnight tonight through the Bering
 Strait and across St. Lawrence Island. Gusts reach 60 to 65 mph
 by Monday morning.

-The first wave of snowfall Sunday PM through Tuesday AM will
 bring an inch or 2 of snow to the western Interior and Y-K Delta.

-The second wave of snowfall Tuesday PM through Thursday AM will
 bring 3 to 4 inches to the Y-K Delta and Western Interior with
 additional snow of 4 to 8 inches In the Kobuk Valley and southern
 Slopes of the Brooks Range.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
-East to northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph persist through the
 weekend Point Barrow east, while near Point Hope northerly winds
 increase to 20 to 30 mph today to near 40 mph with gusts 60 to
 65 mph by Monday morning.

-Temperatures slowly increase through early next week. Lows in
 the teens along the coast and near 30 below across the Arctic
 Plains.

-Snow chances increase Monday through Tuesday from the eastern
 Beaufort Sea coast to the Central Brooks Range. Snow
 accumulations will be limited north of the Brooks Range with 1 to
 2 inches along the Coast and 3 to 5 inches in the Brooks Range.
 The Southern Slopes of the Brooks Range will see more snow with 5
 to 8 inches possible between Coldfoot and Ambler through
 Wednesday night.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
-A low pressure system moves into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday
 night through Thursday as a near 960 mb low, but weakens rapidly
 overnight Thursday as it nears the Southern Coast of Alaska.

-Additional southerly flow will keep temperatures above normal.

-An additional round of snowfall is expected in the Interior with
 this system. Some accumulation is possible from Fairbanks south
 to the Alaska Range, but most of the accumulation will be north
 and west of Fairbanks where moisture from the system will be less
 obstructed by the Alaska Range.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...
A 970 low south of the Alaskan Peninsula has several less potent
lows moving around it. These lesser lows are rotating into the
Gulf of Alaska Coast bringing waves of snow and strong winds to
the state. By 10pm tonight the more potent low will have moved to
near Unalaska with the first of the notable smaller lows moving
into Kodiak Island as a 977mb low.

This movement is bringing a warm front across the Alaskan
Interior which will increase temperatures and bring snow to the
northern Interior through Monday. Some uncertainty remains with
the exact areas where snow will accumulate from this first wave of
precipitation depending on how quickly the dry air above the
surface fills in with moisture. It is most likely to fall north of
Fairbanks with Fairbanks receiving little, if any, snow from this
first wave.

Afterwards a stronger low with a pressure between 960 and 965 mb
will move into the Gulf of Alaska and make landfall near the Kenai
Peninsula Monday evening through Monday night. There is still
considerably disagreement between several model solutions for the
strength and timing of this low with the 00Z Canadian offering a
solution that splits that feature from a single strong low to 2
weaker lows around 980mb and 985 mbs. For this morning's forecast
we are leaning more towards the GFS/NAM solution of a single low
near 960mb moving near the Kenai Peninsula Monday night to
Tuesday morning bringing heavy snow and strong winds to the Alaska
Range as well as a second round of snow to the Interior.
Widespread snowfall across the Interior is more likely with this
system as the first wave will have significantly diminished the
dry air that would otherwise hinder snowfall. 3 to 5 inches is
generally expected north of Fairbanks with the highest amounts
being along the Dalton Highway Summits through the Kobuk Valley
with total accumulations of 5 to 8 inches.

As this low moves north, it brings warming temperatures and will
bring temperatures near the Alaska Range to near freezing. This
will bring with it a very slight chance for wintry mix Tuesday to
the southern slopes of the Alaska Range. Strong southerly winds
over the Alaska Range will help dry the air from Fairbanks South
to the Alaska Range limiting snowfall amounts. The middle Tanana
Valley will see some light snow from this event likely between 1
and 2 inches. Areas just north of the Alaska Range and in the
Forty Mile Country will remain mostly dry seeing little, if any,
snowfall with accumulations expected under an inch the upper
Tanana Valley and Forty Mile Country.

More lows follow with another near 960 mb low moving into the
Gulf of Alaska Wednesday night into Thursday with a near 970 mb
low moving to near Bristol Bay Friday night. Model spread is
sufficient with these systems to leave details uncertain, but
each of these should bring with them an additional round of
snowfall to the Interior as well as southerly flow and stronger
winds at elevation.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ801.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ820-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803-811-850-853-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-806-807.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805-816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-852-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

Stokes