Gale Warning 37, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
543 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Fairly quiet weather will continue for much of
Northern Alaska. Cold temperatures continue to moderate Saturday
as a big ridge of high pressure builds over the area. Advisories
and warnings for blowing snow followed by light freezing rain
remain in effect for parts of the west coast and western Arctic
coast. A second front late Saturday to Sunday will bring another
round strong southerly winds through the Bering Straits and the
Northwest Coast around Cape Lisburne and Point Hope.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Weather Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures moderate Saturday, especially at elevation, as a
  strong ridge builds over the area from the west. Highs in the
  hills will be back to near 0 or even a bit above on Saturday and
  valley temperatures will warm to near 10 above by Sunday. The
  Yukon Flats will remain 10 to 20 degrees colder than other
  areas.

- Breezy conditions with some blowing snow expected over Eagle
  Summit from Saturday evening through Sunday night.

- 1-2 inches of snow is likely across the area Saturday through Sunday
  as a weak shortwave moves over the top of the ridge.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Temperatures rapidly moderating as a front moves up the west
  coast with a strong upper level ridge moving in behind it.

- Southerly flow is impacting the west coast continuing the snow,
  and blowing snow. Winds gusting as high as 30-40 mph. Freezing
  drizzle is also begin reported near Nome and will continue
  through tonight. . A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for
  Nome, Golovin, and the Bering Strait for snow and blowing snow,
  followed by freezing drizzle.

- Blizzard or near blizzard conditions to Kotzebue through
  Saturday morning as the front passes through the area as it
  moves north. A Blizzard Warning should be ending Saturday
  morning. A Winter Weather Advisory for snow, blowing snow and
  cold wind chills also remains in effect until this morning for
  the Lower Kobuk Valley.

- The band of wind will eventually turn north after it leaves the
  Kotzebue area and Saturday night to Sunday, will begin to bring
  reduced visibilities from blowing snow into the Point Hope
  area. A Winter Weather Advisory as been issued for the Western
  Arctic Coast, though it should impact areas south of Cape
  Lisburne.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Temperatures continue the significant warm up to above 0F
  temperatures once again this weekend. Lows will still be sub
  zero ( 0 to -8 ) from Utqiagvik and east tonight but will warm
  to 5 to 10 above Sunday night.

- winds under 10 mph tonight and Sunday with increasing
  Southwesterly winds 10 to 15 mph for Point Thomson and Barter
  Sunday night. Drifting and localized blowing snow possible
  returning then.

- A front will push across the north slope over the weekend
  bringing snow and blowing snow. Winter Weather Advisories are in
  effect from Point Hope to Utqiagvik for Saturday.

- Another round of the wind from another system moving northward
  along the west coast, will spread strong 30 to 40 mph winds
  through the Bering Strait and then north past Point Hope and
  Cape Lisburne. The strength of the winds and fresh snow should
  result in another period of blowing snow, therefore have issued
  a Winter storm watch for those areas Sunday night into Monday
  evening.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...A front is currently moving
north along the west coast with a strong ridge of high pressure
building in behind it. Expect areas of freezing drizzle from the
Bering Strait south to Golovin as moisture drys out from the top
down. A low will form in the Chukchi Sea just behind the front,
which will restrengthen the winds and precipitation with it as it
moves across the western Arctic Coast through Saturday.

Some moisture will continue to ride over the top of the ridge and
into the Interior on Saturday and Sunday spreading some light
snow through the interior of the state, perhaps an inch or so. As
the ridge builds, expect conditions to dry out. With moisture
trapped beneath the ridge, expect partly cloudy skies and big
inversions in clear areas, with warmer temperatures in the hills
and under cloud cover. Can't rule out isolated areas of freezing
drizzle in the Interior on Sunday and later next week with
moisture trapped in the low levels, but probabilities are low and
impacts are expected to be minimal if this occurs. A system will
move up the west coast on Monday, bringing light snow and Gale
force southerly winds to western capes.

The forecast remains mostly on track with better than normal
confidence and model agreement. We issued Winter Weather
Advisories for blowing snow and low visibility on Saturday for the
northwest Arctic Coast and Utqiagvik. Also issued a Special
Weather Statement for light freezing rain through Saturday for the
Yukon Delta and added both the freezing rain and dense fog to the
forecast.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...

- High pressure persists through the week. Temperature inversions
  likely with warmer hills and cold valleys.

- Some small features will weaken the high pressure slightly while
  bringing clouds and some chances for light precipitation Tuesday
  through Friday.

- Temperatures in valleys while under clouds will be mild
  generally between 0F and freezing. When under clear skies
  temperatures in valleys will be significantly colder.

The strong ridge pattern that sets up this weekend will see
several shortwaves move through the pattern from the west. These
will weaken the ridge, although surface pressure will still be
high. While these move through clouds and increased chances of
light precipitation will move across the state. There is very
little confidence on exactly when or where these conditions will
impact, but impacts are expected to be minimal. There is however a
non-zero chance of some isolated areas of freezing drizzle with
this pattern. Near the end of the next week these shortwaves
decrease with higher pressure once again building across the
region.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-822.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802-803.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ816.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ817.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ821.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ821.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-806-816-817-850-851-853-854-
     857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-808-855-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

Bezenek