Brisk Wind Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1256 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Happy New Year! Not much to speak of as we begin 2025. Ongoing dry
and seasonably cold weather continues through the end of the week.
One notable hazard is blowing snow in Point Lay, but conditions
will be improving as we move throughout the day and tonight.
Otherwise, temperatures drop this weekend with temperatures in the
40s, approaching 50 below in the Eastern Interior. 20s and 30s
below zero are expected in the Central and Western Interior. Then
it warms up next week with increasing chances for snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Clear and cold weather continues through the weekend.
	- Temperatures drop this weekend into the -40s in the Eastern
   Interior with near -50F possible in Northway.
	- Expect Central Interior Valleys to drop into the -20s and -30s.

- Easterly winds develop in the valleys on Thursday resulting in
  localized cold wind chills around -40F to -50F in Interior
  Valleys, but any wind will increase the temperature at the
  surface, so extreme wind chills are not expected.
	- Wind gusts in Eagle will be up to 25 mph today into tomorrow
   then weaken this weekend.
	- A Tanana Valley Jet will develop once again tomorrow with gusts
   up to 45 mph likely, then potentially up to 50 mph this
   weekend.
	- The strongest winds will be in the higher terrain Thursday
   through the weekend with gusts up to 45 mph at times.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Seasonably chilly temperatures gradually drop through the
  weekend into the -30s in the Interior valleys and near 0 or in
  the single digits along the coast.

- Easterly winds develop on Thursday resulting in localized cold
  wind chills around -40F in Interior valleys, but any wind will
  increase the temperature at the surface, so extreme wind chills
  are not expected.
	- The strongest wind gusts over land will be in the higher
   terrain Thursday through the weekend with gusts up to 45 mph at
   times.
	- Otherwise wind gusts from 30-40 mph develop along the coast
   from Nome south Friday afternoon and continue through the
   weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Blowing snow with visibility around 1/2 mile in Point Lay has
  improved and will continue to improve through the day.

- Breezy conditions along the coast will keep wind chills around
  -40F to -50F through the weekend.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Cold weather persists through Monday, then temperatures will
increase and be above normal south of the Brooks Range by
Wednesday. It will be around average in the Brooks Range and North
Slope next week. We'll be monitoring chances for light snow on
Monday from a warm front moving over the Alaska Range, then
potentially heavier snow on Tuesday in the Western Interior and
West Coast. These snow chances remain relatively low confidence
but there will be a pattern change, away from the cold weather and
towards warmer/snowier weather.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...
High confidence that the weather remains quiet and cold through
the weekend. A 1050 mb high over the Arctic extends southeast
into the Yukon and Northwest Territories in Canada. This is
keeping the storm track well south of the state. Given that there
is a high over Canada, northeast winds will increase tomorrow with
gusts up to 15 mph in Interior valleys. The strongest winds will
be in the higher terrain with gusts up to 45 mph, especially along
the Dalton Highway Summits. Winds will increase in Delta Junction
on Friday with gusts to 45 mph, then continue increasing this
weekend. Otherwise, there are no significant weather hazards.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-804-852-854-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-808-855-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-809-813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

Bianco