Blizzard Warning 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
252 AM AKST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Stratus, areas of freezing fog and flurries have once again set up
over the Interior Valleys with snow showers in the higher terrain.
These conditions will continue through the day. Snow will be
around this morning from St. Marys north and east then move to the
Central Interior tonight into tomorrow. Then, there has been a
change with the forecast moving forward. The shortwave moving from
the West Coast to Central Interior has slowed and will bring
steadier snow Thursday night to Friday. Otherwise, the North Slope
is still remaining mostly quiet but there will be light snow
moving east today with temperatures continuing to drop through the
end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Mild weather persists this week with highs in the teens above
  zero and lows around 0 to 10 below.

- Light snow will be around today and tomorrow, but the bulk of
  the accumulating snow has lagged behind and will be arriving
  Thursday night into Friday.
	- Snowfall totals through Friday will be around 2 to 4 inches for
   most spots in the Interior, but snowfall totals will taper off
   towards Tok/Northway.

- After the frontal passage Friday afternoon/evening, temperatures
  will drop into -10 to -20 degree range with -30 degrees possible
  in the Yukon Flats.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light snow currently from the Yukon Delta to Golovin will move
  east through the afternoon.
	- 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected.

- Another front with bring light snow from the Yukon Delta
  northward tomorrow morning, then east to Galena in the
  afternoon. Some rain may mix in at times from Chevak to
  Unalakleet, but it will be short lived and shouldn't
  accumulate.
	- This will bring another 1 to 3 inches with the highest amounts
   along the coast.
	- The snow will be heavier in St. Lawrence Island tomorrow with 3
   to 6 inches expected. Gambell will have wind gusts to 45 mph
   which will result in blowing snow and visibility down to 1/4
   mile at times.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow moving east today with another 1 to 3 inches expected
  from Nuiqsut south/east.

- West winds increase today with gusts to 40 mph, especially in
  Kaktovik where blowing snow is likely and may reduce visibility
  to 1/2 mile at times this afternoon.

- Temperatures drop below normal tomorrow and remain chilly
  through Saturday.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...
There is quite a bit of uncertainty with the ongoing forecast. The
greatest area of uncertainty is in the Interior where there will
be snow around this week, but the trend has been delaying the bulk
of the accumulating snow to Thursday and Friday. This is being
caused by a 500 mb shortwave coming from the Central Bering Sea.
It will be riding over the ridge centered in the Gulf of Alaska
then forced east as a 500mb low in the Arctic pushes southeast.
These two pieces of energy will provide snow to the Interior, but
accumulations are uncertain. As of now, 2 to 4 inches looks
probable with locally higher amounts in the higher terrain of the
Interior. Otherwise, temperatures will drop below normal this
weekend and into the early part of next week.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Dry and chilly to start the extended forecast. But we are not
foreseeing much in the way of precipitation or impactful weather
heading into the beginning of next week as ridging remains in
place. Once we get into the middle and end of next week,
uncertainty remains very high due to the breakdown of the ridge.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-851-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
937 AM AKST Wed Feb 5 2025

AKZ839-841>844-060200-
Tanana Flats-Goldstream Valley and Nenana Hills-
Chatanika River Valley-Two Rivers-Fairbanks Metro Area-
Including Birch Lake,
The Richardson Highway from MP 295 to MP 317, Ester Dome,
Murphy Dome, The Parks Highway from MP 325 to MP 342, Haystack,
The Elliott Highway from MP 1 to MP 32,
The Steese Highway from MP 12 to MP 85, Two Rivers,
Chena Hot Springs Road from MP 12 to MP 34, Fairbanks,
Fort Wainwright, Ester, North Pole, and Fox
937 AM AKST Wed Feb 5 2025

...Mixed Snow and Freezing Drizzle To Continue Through Today...

The mix of light snow and freezing drizzle that is falling this
morning across the Fairbanks area, as well as freezing fog, will
continue through today and likely into tonight before changing
back to light snow. Differences in precipitation types are highly
localized across the area this morning and may make driving
difficult. Significant ice accumulations are not expected.

JC