Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

923 
WWAK41 PAFC 262331
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
231 PM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

AKZ132-271500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250128T0200Z/
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
231 PM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulation 
  of 12 to 20 inches for Thompson Pass. Additional snow 
  accumulation of 6 to 12 inches for Valdez to Keystone Canyon. 
  Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Northeast Prince William Sound.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may mix with or change over to rain 
  at times this afternoon for Valdez and parts of Keystone Canyon 
  before changing back to all snow this evening. Snow will persist
  for Thompson Pass with heavy snow early Sunday afternoon 
  through early Monday afternoon, with snowfall rates of up to 2 
  inches per hour possible. Southeasterly winds will also increase
  this afternoon and turn southerly tonight. Visibilities may 
  fall to one half mile or less at times due to the combination of
  snow and wind.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ126-270600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-250127T0600Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, and Moose Pass
231 PM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Turnagain Pass to Summit Lake.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Periods of moderate to heavy wet snow are
  possible from Turnagain Pass to Summit Lake through this 
  evening. Rain may mix in with the snow or changeover to rain 
  this afternoon before changing back to snow this evening. 
  Snowfall rates of up to an inch per hour are possible in heavier
  snow. Any rain that does fall on snow may lead to slippery 
  conditions and ponding of water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ142-270600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-250127T0600Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
231 PM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and rain. Rain freezing on top of cold, snow-
  covered roads. Heavy snow closer to Thompson Pass and snow along
  the Richardson Highway corridor near Paxson. Additional snow
  accumulation of 1 to 3 inches near Paxson. Rain from south of
  Tonsina to around mile marker 46 and additional snow
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches from mile marker 46 to Thompson
  Pass.

* WHERE...Copper River Basin.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Travel could be 
  very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A wintry mix of snow and rain will 
  continue along the Richardson Highway south of the Edgerton 
  Highway to Thompson Pass. Precipitation will be heavy at 
  times, with snow the predominant precipitation type near 
  Thompson Pass. For areas north of the pass to Tonsina and 
  along the Edgerton Highway, rain or a mix of rain and snow on 
  cold roadways could lead to slippery conditions. For the 
  Paxson area, expect the heaviest snow amounts north of Paxson, 
  toward Isabel Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ145-270600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-250127T0600Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna and Willow
231 PM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Susitna Valley, from Talkeetna north and west.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Travel could be 
  very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will continue today from Talkeetna 
  north and west. The snow may mix with or change to rain 
  briefly this afternoon around Talkeetna. The heaviest snow 
  amounts will be north of Talkeetna, including Broad Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

643 
WWAK41 PAFC 270608
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
908 PM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

AKZ126-270715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-250127T0600Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, and Moose Pass
908 PM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

Snow showers may continue through Monday morning. However, the 
front is continuing to lift out of the area and snow intensity and
winds are expected to improve.


$$

AKZ142-270715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-250127T0600Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
908 PM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

Snow showers may continue through Monday morning. However, the 
front is continuing to lift out of the area and snow intensity is 
expected to improve.

$$

AKZ145-270715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-250127T0600Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna and Willow
908 PM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

Snow showers may continue through Monday morning. However, the 
front is continuing to lift out of the area and snow intensity is 
expected to improve.

$$

AKZ132-272000-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250128T0200Z/
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
908 PM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulation
  of 12 to 20 inches for Thompson Pass. Additional snow
  accumulation of 6 to 12 inches for Valdez to Keystone Canyon.
  Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Northeast Prince William Sound.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow will persist for Thompson Pass
  through early Monday afternoon, with snowfall rates of up to 2
  inches per hour possible. Gusty southerly winds with snow will
  reduce visibilities to one half mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

477 
WWAK41 PAFC 271327
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 AM AKST Mon Jan 27 2025

AKZ132-280200-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250128T0200Z/
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
427 AM AKST Mon Jan 27 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THOMPSON PASS...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow 
  accumulation of 6 to 12 inches for Thompson Pass. Additional 
  snow accumulation of 2 to 6 inches from Valdez to Keystone 
  Canyon. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph for Thompson Pass.

* WHERE...Thompson Pass.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Bands of heavy snow showers will persist
  for Thompson Pass through early Monday afternoon, with snowfall
  rates of up to 2 inches per hour possible. Gusty southerly winds
  with snow will reduce visibilities to one half mile or less at
  times. Rain in Valdez early this morning will change back to
  snow with up to 3 inches of additional snow accumulation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

421 
WWAK41 PAFC 280141
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKST Mon Jan 27 2025

AKZ132-280245-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250128T0200Z/
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
441 PM AKST Mon Jan 27 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

Snow showers will continue through Tuesday morning, however, the
heaviest shower activity has passed. An additional 3 to 6 inches
will be possible with these continued showers. 

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
602 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Today through Monday Night)...

Key Points:

* Flood Advisories continue for many of the road and population
  corridors of Southcentral Alaska. A long duration rainfall,
  heavy at times, will fall on a frozen ground, limiting
  absorption of water into the ground. There is a high likelihood
  for widespread areas of ponding/standing water, especially for
  low lying or poor drainage areas and along smaller streams and
  creeks.

* Flood Watches remain in effect for the larger area outside where
  Flood Advisories are in effect including Chignik and the south
  end of Kodiak Island.

* The forecast for Storm Total Rainfall Amounts through Monday
  Morning remains on track:

  -Western Kenai/Anchorage Area/Matanuska Valley/Kodiak Island:
   1 to 2.5" - lower in western and northern Anchorage

  -Susitna Valley/Eastern Kenai/Prince William Sound: 2 to 6"

* A High Wind Warning continues for Anchorage. The combination of
  wind and rain (and resulting standing water or wet ground)
  could bring down trees, particularly in areas where the ground
  is not frozen or where trees are already weakened from the
  recent windstorm. While wind strength will vary over the next
  couple days, with multiple ups and downs in speed, southeasterly
  wind gusts will reach around 70 mph on the Hillside and 30 to
  50 mph for lower elevations of Anchorage and Eagle River.

* Winds will also be quite strong and gusty along the Knik River
  Valley into Palmer/Wasilla (peaking at 40 to 55 mph) and along
  the Copper River (peaking at 50 to 60 mph).

* Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Turnagain pass to
  Summit Lake as well as Thompson Pass.

* Forecast confidence is now much higher for colder air moving
  across Southcentral Sunday night into Monday, changing any
  remaining precipitation to snow. The week ahead looks much
  colder with potential for snow accumulation.

The mean longwave trough slowly advances eastward as it lay draped
across the Bering and Western Aleutians. A north Pacific High
remains parked off of the coast of Washington allowing a deeply
tapped tropical moisture plume from Hawaii to take aim at Alaska.
A surface low south of Cold Bay has an occluded front which
continues to be the boundary between the warm and moisture rich
air flowing into southcentral and the colder air out to the west.

While the ongoing forecast hasn't changed and remains on track,
some small nuances can explain why rain seems to be under-performing
for parts of Anchorage and over-performing for others. Strong
winds in Turnagain Arm are significantly warming and drying the
atmosphere on the lee (western) side of the Chugach. The event,
currently, is being forced by orographic lift despite record
precipitable water. Sources of dynamic lifting (shortwaves) are
limited. They are noticed as they rotate across the area as the
'dry' areas of west and north anchorage see periods of relatively
heavy rain. Rainfall totals as the early afternoon range widely
from PANC to the Hillside. Western Kenai has seen more than the
road from Sterling through the Chugach. As the evening wears on,
winds should start to weaken some and rain should be a bit more
uniform from the city through the Hillside overnight.

-- previous discussion --

A short-wave trough will dig across the North Pacific saturday
night, develop into a closed low and track northward up the west
side of the ridge on Sunday - bringing the surface low with it. As
the low reaches interior Southwest AK, cold air will wrap around
the south side of the low and into Southcentral Sunday night. A
leading short-wave trough will approach Southcentral during the
day Sunday, helping to intensify precipitation. The flow will back
a bit toward the south to southeast ahead of this trough, which
looks like it will produce downslope drying for much of the
western Kenai, Anchorage, and the southern Mat-Su beginning midday
Sunday. Thus, the heaviest precipitation will be in the Prince
William Sound region and the west side of Cook Inlet up to the
Susitna Valley. This trough will help drive the ridge eastward
Sunday through Sunday night.

The cold air will move in behind the trough with precipitation
becoming showery Sunday night through Monday. Strong gusty
southerly winds will spread inland and limit the ability of
surface temperatures to fall very far. Still, most of the region
can expect temperatures down around freezing by early Monday,
leading to some refreezing of standing water. The windy conditions
will likely cause temperatures to rise back above freezing during
the day Monday before dropping more significantly Monday night as
winds begin to diminish. The forecast beyond this point becomes
much more uncertain, with large model spread with storms tracking
into the Gulf. What can be said with some confidence is it will
be a return to more normal winter-time weather, with colder
temperatures and chances for snow.

-SEB/TM/SS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday)...

Key messages:

 - A very active pattern will continue to affect much of the
   outlook area with impacts ranging from heavy snow, heavy
   rainfall, blowing snow, rapidly falling temperatures and heavy
   freezing spray through early next week.

 - Multiple winter headlines remain in effect for the eastern
   Aleutians, Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and the Kuskokwim Delta.

 - Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the southern
   coastline of Bristol Bay down to the southern end of the AKPen
   from Sunday evening to Monday evening due to potential for
   strong winds, snow and blowing snow.

A historic pattern that has not been observed in modern records
across parts of Alaska during the latter half of January continues
to impact much of the outlook area this afternoon. A very strong
frontal zone still separates an Arctic air mass building over the
northwestern Bering and a much warmer air mass moving up from the
Pacific Ocean. An atmospheric river continues to ride up along a
zone of very strong southwesterly flow into the Alaska Peninsula
and across Southwest, where some of the more inclement conditions
are occurring. Near whiteout conditions in heavy snowfall have
persisted much of the day across the Kuskokwim Delta, and
conditions here will deteriorate further overnight as winds pick
up and begin to cause blizzard conditions to develop. Similar
conditions are occurring across the eastern Aleutians, where
strong and gusty north winds are combining with heavy, wet snow to
cause very poor visibility. Snow is worsening in intensity as a
deformation band develops northwest of a low beginning to move up
along the front from the North Pacific.

The forecast thinking overall for the next day or two remains
largely unchanged, with the overall progression of the low still
looking on par with expectations. The low will steadily deepen as
it crosses into the Bering Sea on Sunday, then move into
Southwest on Monday. Two new Winter Weather Advisories have been
added to the list for the southern coastline of Bristol Bay as
well as the northern coastline of the Alaska Peninsula, but these
are not set to go into effect until later on Sunday. As the low
begins to move up into Southwest, it will pull much colder air
spreading across the Bering Sea up into Bristol Bay between Sunday
and Monday. Temperatures will very quickly fall from the 40s to
10s to 20s as rain also changes over to snow, leading to a
potential flash freeze. Snow and blowing snow is expected mainly
along the coast from King Salmon down to Cold Bay as gusty west
winds quickly develop Sunday afternoon and persist into Monday.

Between Monday and Tuesday, conditions should improve across the
board as the low heads up into the Interior and leaves behind a
cold pattern along with scattered snow showers across much of the
region. Heavy to extreme freezing spray rates already developing
along and just south of the ice edge and near the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast should also improve as gusty north winds slowly begin to
subside.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday - Saturday)...

A series of lows move through the northern Gulf of Alaska mid-
week through the end of this week causing coastal rain and
mountain snow to Prince William Sound inland to Copper River
Basin. Cooler air will filter from the Interior to the Kenai
Peninsula, Kodiak Island, Anchorage and Mat-Su Valleys bringing
the return of more seasonable late January temperatures.
Precipitation during this time is favoring a rain/snow mix later
this week with the chance for snow for the weekend.

Northwest winds bring cooler air into the Southwest and AK Pen
through the end of this week as a trough moves across the Bering.
Winds on the Pacific side of the Eastern Aleutians and AK Pen
could be strong mid-week. Locations in the Southwest turn warm
this weekend as a front moves across the region reaching the
Southwest by the weekend. This will push cooler end-of-week air
eastward.

-DJ

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

*** Flood Advisories and Flood Watches in Southcentral remain in
 effect into Sunday evening. ***

A deep and persistent plume of moisture will continue to flow
northward from the Pacific Ocean into Southcentral this weekend.
This moisture plume, referred to as an Atmospheric River,
will continue to bring copious amounts of rainfall in multiple
waves to Southcentral through tomorrow evening. Rainfall across
most of the region falling onto frozen ground is resulting in
ponding on roadways slow drainage/low lying areas and
rising/overflowing of creeks and streams.   QPF amounts the next
24-36 hours range from 1.5" to 5" across Southcentral with the
highest amounts along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak
Island. The final wave of moisture moves through Sunday evening.
The three day rainfall event from January 18-21, 1961 of 1.34" is
the most rain over three days in a meteorological winter (Dec-
Feb) in Anchorage. Only a trace of snow fell during these three
days combined.

-DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A prolonged event of rain and gusty winds will allow for
periods of decreased visibilities through Sunday. Visibilities may
vary between VFR down to IFR with rain intensity. Southerly to
southeasterly winds are expected with gusts up to 45 kts through
Sunday evening. Rain will begin to wind down Sunday afternoon
through evening with winds gradually decreasing but remaining
south-southeasterly.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
235 AM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 AM     Snow             8 SW Trapper Creek      62.32N 150.23W
01/26/2025  M10.9 Inch       Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Trained Spotter

            UPDATE: 5.6 additional inches of snowfall
            since 7PM 1/25/25. Total snowfall in the
            past 12 hours is 10.9 inches. Total
            precipitation in the past 18 hours is 2.23
            inches. SWE for the past 6 hours is 0.79
            inches with a snow of about 7.1 to 1. Temp
            nearly constant at 30.9 degrees.

&&

DAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
506 AM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

AKZ112-270200-
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
506 AM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

...STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY...

Strong east to southeasterly winds will continue across the
the Matanuska Valley through Sunday afternoon as a potent storm
system moves through the region. Winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts to
60 mph are possible for the Knik River Valley and Palmer. For
areas west of the Parks and Glenn Highway Interchange, including
Wasilla, winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.

There will likely be multiple peaks and lulls in the overall
strength of the winds through Sunday, but they will largely
remain gusty the entire time.

Winds will then shift to the south late Sunday night through
Monday. Any decrease in winds prior to this shift will be brief,
with southerly wind gusts up to 40 mph expected through the day
Monday.

AKZ102-270200-
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian,
and Eklutna
506 AM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

...GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE UPPER HILLSIDE OF
ANCHORAGE AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAGLE RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

Strong southeasterly wind gusts and periods of moderate snow will
continue for elevations above 1800 feet through this evening. This
includes the Glen Alps area of the Anchorage Hillside and the
Arctic Valley and Upper Hiland Road areas of Eagle River. Several
inches of snow have already fallen through the day Saturday, with
an additional 2 to 8 inches of snow possible. Winds may gust as
high as 85 mph at times today. The combination of snow and wind
will lead to significant drifting and blowing snow with
significantly reduced visibility. There is the potential that snow
levels rise briefly this afternoon before dropping back down.
This may lead to a mix or rain and snow at times before changing
back to snow by evening.

AKZ121-270200-
Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
and Cooper Landing
506 AM AKST Sun Jan 26 2025

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND KACHEMAK BAY MONDAY...

A frontal system moving into Prince William Sound Monday early
Monday morning will result in an increase in south to
southwesterly winds and colder air moving up Cook Inlet on Monday.
Sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 60 mph are
possible from Homer north to Nikiski early Monday morning through
late Monday night. Wave heights will also build across Kachemak
Bay through the day Monday, leading to rough surf around Homer
Spit.

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of
power outages. Use caution if you must drive.