Storm Warning 95, NWS Anchorage, AK

516 
FZAK52 PAFC 032333
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041230-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 mb low roughly 290 nm W of Saint Paul moves to 200 nm W of 
Saint Matthew Island at 972 mb Sat afternoon. The low then moves 
to 50 nm SW of Saint Matthew Island at 986 mb by Sun afternoon. A 
N Pacific trough lifts across the Alaska Peninsula into interior 
Bristol Bay Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-041230-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ751-041230-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ752-041230-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ753-041230-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ754-041230-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ755-041230-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ756-041230-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ757-041230-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ758-041230-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ759-041230-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ770-041230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ772-041230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ771-041230-
Unalaska Bay-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-041230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ774-041230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ775-041230-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ776-041230-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ777-041230-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ778-041230-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ780-041230-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ781-041230-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ782-041230-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 19 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ783-041230-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 21 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ784-041230-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ785-041230-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ786-041230-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ787-041230-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ766-041230-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ760-041230-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft after
midnight. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ761-041230-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ762-041230-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ763-041230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ764-041230-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft after
midnight. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ765-041230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ767-041230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
333 PM AKDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...
E 35 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The upper-level wave and strong cold front responsible for the
areas of heavy rain, and heavy wet snow above 3,000 ft AGL and
above, is quickly driving east through the southern Copper River
Basin this afternoon. In its wake, skies are generally clearing,
although some clouds are lingering across mainly along the atop
the Talkeetna and Chugach Mountains.

This was an impressive autumn storm, with around an inch of
precipitation for most locations along the Kenai Peninsula north
to Anchorage and Palmer, over an across the northern Susitna
Valley, half an inch in the Copper River Basin, and 2 to 4 inches
of precipitation from Valdez to Cordova. Snow levels hovered
around 3,000 ft AGL through most of the event, with 6 inches of
snow falling in Thompson Pass, 2 to 5 inches near Tahneta Pass
and along the eastern half of the Denali Highway, and over 6
inches of snow falling at Hatcher Pass Lodge with one SNOTEL site
at Independence Mine (3,450ft) reporting 15 inches of snow.

For Friday, mostly zonal flow will dominate the area as ridging
builds in to the west. A trough moving through the Interior in the
morning may help to bring some rain or rain snow mix to the
Alaska Range and possibly as far south as the Talkeetnas near
Hatcher Pass. Other than maybe Palmer and Sutton, most non-
mountainous areas should remain dry as the airmass dries out off
of the Western Alaska Range.

Moving into the weekend, a stout ridge will develop south of the
Gulf, with a broad trough and deep low pressure system over the
Bering. This will really amplify the flow aloft and place
Southcentral into deep south to southwesterly flow. There is some
uncertainty as to the timing of the first shortwave that will
bring the rain, and to how waves rounding the southern periphery
of the trough will interact with the ridge, but the upper level
set-up is one that could be primed for another round of heavy
rain. Right now the most likely areas for more concentrated
precipitation will be the Susitna Valley, Seward, Valdez and
Cordova. Temperatures aloft will also soar, pushing snow levels up
to the 7000+ ft level later in the weekend.

Southerly gap winds will also increase beginning Saturday with
this system, with strong winds through Turnagain Arm and the
Copper River Valley. Any winds through Turnagain Arm that do move
over Anchorage for Saturday morning should shift away from town
and down Cook Inlet for late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Weak high pressure moves over the Mainland ahead this evening.
Tomorrow afternoon, a storm brings rain and wind to the Mainland
coast causing coastal impacts. This same low brings precipitation
and areas of gale and storm force winds to the Bering Sea and
Aleutians the next few days.

Isolated rain showers and gusty winds in the Kuskokwim Delta will
end this afternoon. Zonal, onshore flow continues for the
Mainland through early overnight. Widespread areas of patchy fog
are also expected overnight through the early morning hours across
the Kuskokwim Delta and Alaska Peninsula as a fast-moving area of
high pressure moves over the area.

A 973mb low moves across the Aleutian Islands west of Adak
and into the Bering Sea tomorrow afternoon. It will cause gale and
storm force winds during this time. As it moves toward the Bering
Strait keeping west of the Pribilof Islands, continued gale to
storm force southwesterly wind gusts tomorrow afternoon and
evening are expected. Areas along the Mainland, from Cape Newenham
to Kipnuk, onshore southerly to southwesterly winds for most of
Friday evening into Saturday evening gust to 45 knots. This
persistent wind flow could result in coastal impacts, including
increased wave heights this weekend, too.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

All of the active weather in the long term period will be
confined to west of the Alaska Range and largely over the Bering.
The one exception will be the potential for areas of heavy rain,
primarily along the Gulf coast, with the remnants of a trough over
the Gulf of Alaska. Southwesterly flow directed into the coastal
mountains will aid in ongoing precipitation to start the new work
week. Models are in generally good agreement with the trough
breaking down on Tuesday and dissipating completely by Wednesday.
This will leave high pressure in place over Southcentral Alaska
and largely benign conditions for the region late Tuesday through
the Thursday.

The main concerns for the long term period involve the
development of a large upper low over the Bering on Tuesday. While
much uncertainty remains, strong southerly flow is likely to
develop downstream of the trough, with gusty conditions forecast
for the Aleutian Chain up into the Pribilof Islands. Something
that will be worth keeping an eye on will be the potential for
persistent onshore flow into the Kuskokwim Delta. Locations near
Kongiganak and Kwigillingok could see coastal flooding,
conditional upon the track of the low and intensity of onshore
flow. Tuesday morning into Tuesday night would be the main time
frame of concern. Low pressure then weakens and lifts northward on
Wednesday followed by the repeat development of yet another large
Bering Sea low Thursday into Friday. For the moment, models are
keeping the 2nd low further west, which will keep the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast in the clear.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The big question is whether there will be any fog and/or
low stratus develop overnight and into Friday morning. The
atmosphere remains quite saturated at low levels and conducive for
low cloud development. The big factor working against this is a
southerly wind up to 10 kt overnight which may help keep the lower
levels of the atmosphere better mixed.

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