Storm Warning 77, NWS Anchorage, AK

042 
FZAK51 PAFC 032236
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-041145-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

The front of a 991 mb North Pacific low enters the western Gulf Sun 
morning and lifts across the Gulf to the northern coast through Mon 
morning. The low reaches 90 nm E of Chignik at 980 mb by Sun 
afternoon and loops around chirikof Island through Mon morning at 975
mb. 


$$

PKZ710-041145-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 60
kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ711-041145-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 60
kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ712-041145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 60
kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ715-041145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 55
kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ716-041145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ714-041145-
Resurrection Bay-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ724-041145-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-041145-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 45
kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ726-041145-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 50
kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-041145-
Port of Valdez-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-041145-
Valdez Narrows-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ722-041145-
Valdez Arm-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ723-041145-
Passage Canal-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-041145-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ731-041145-
Barren Islands East-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 65
kt E of the Barren Islands in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft building to 
21 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 22 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ733-041145-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ732-041145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt except E 40 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 13
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ734-041145-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt except E 35 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 11
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ736-041145-
Chiniak Bay-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ737-041145-
Marmot Bay-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-041145-
Shelikof Strait-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ742-041145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ740-041145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ741-041145-
Kachemak Bay-
236 PM AKDT Sat May 3 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40
kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 PM AKDT Fri May 2 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

As of this afternoon, a broad, occluded ~990 mb surface low is
centered 130 miles east of Kodiak Island. Its front has moved
across the immediate Southcentral coast, spreading rainfall inland
as precipitation rates are being enhanced by orographic lift from
Seward to the Eastern Kenai Mountains to the south facing slopes
of the Chugach Front Range and eastward. Elsewhere, an AL/CAN low
is on its way out of the forecast zone, but light precipitation is
still lingering across the upper Copper River Basin. Winds are
gusty this afternoon, particularly in favorable gap regions such
as the Turnagain Arm and Passage Canal.

Breaks in the clouds this afternoon have allowed for some warming
for lower elevations and the valleys to help initiate isolated
areas of weak thunderstorms, especially in the lower Mat-Su
Valleys, where warmer temperatures near the surface are
contrasting with cool air aloft near the upper level trough in
place. Elsewhere, despite favorably steep mid to upper level
lapse rates, the limiting factor today has been daytime heating. A
few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out for Cordova and
surrounding areas as a persistent onshore flow in a relatively
unstable airmass behind the front. Aloft, an upper level wave
rotating along in a deep longwave trough to the west has aligned
well with the front as it has moved inland.

The Turnagain Arm wind, along with other gap winds, will diminish
tonight as the low near Kodiak opens into a trough and pushes
eastward. Also, precipitation chances will similarly diminish as
the low falls apart, leaving lingering showers through Saturday
as a weak ridge builds in.

For Sunday, a front from a low over the AK PEN drives into the
Southcentral coast, forcing heavy precipitation and a barrier jet
along the coastline. Inland areas will be sheltered from most
precipitation due to downsloping and will see lower precipitation
chances. Once again, higher elevations generally above 2500 ft
could see snowfall, especially at night. Winds will be enhanced as
well from this front. By Sunday afternoon, gap winds will
increase to storm force near the Barren Islands with high end gale
force winds in the other gap regions. Wind speeds are more certain
as models have come into closer agreement, especially with the
aforementioned barrier jet. Most guidance now has wind gusts meeting
storm-force criteria.

-AM/TM/JAR

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS(Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Starting off the forecast is a col that is currently over the
southwest Alaska mainland. This has allowed precipitation chances
to drop off and wind speeds to remain on the low side as well.
However, winds remain breezy and northerly off the coast and down
to the Alaska Peninsula as the persistent tongue of cold air
remains in place. The Lower Kuskokwim Valley in contrast is
receiving convective showers with the potential for lightning as
storms flow in from the northwest. For the Bering, a couple of
weak lows are moving slowly eastward, allowing for showers and
small craft winds in the central Aleutians.

On Saturday, much of the same will occur in the mainland with the
col slowly moving eastward and slight ridging building in.
Lingering showers will occur in the Lower Kuskokwim Delta, but
precipitation chances will continue to decrease in the mainland.
The Bering will also be similar with the main region of rain and
winds moving into the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
regions by Saturday afternoon.

Things finally change on Sunday when the easternmost low in the
Bering grows in size and intensifies as it moves south of the
Alaska Peninsula. The second weaker low drops south of Adak and
dissipates. The now bigger low will drive precipitation chances up
in the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay regions. The Kuskokwim
Delta region could see some showery precipitation as the low tries
to advect some moist air up there. However, the mountains south of
Bethel will limit how much precipitation can fall. Aided by this
low and the aforementioned tongue of colder air, gap winds will
increase to gale force in the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula regions. The Kamishak Gap will similarly see an increase
of wind speeds to gale force as the low passes. This pattern
remains on Monday as the low becomes quasi-stationary near Kodiak
Island. Out west in the western Bering, a ridge moves in and
switches winds southerly and drives down precipitation chances.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...

At the start of the extended period on Tuesday, a deep vertically
stacked low will be positioned in the southern Gulf with a
dissipating occluded front wrapped around the Gulf coast. With a
high amplitude ridge sitting downstream, the upper level low will
linger over the southern Gulf through at least Friday. Short-waves
rotating around the low center will likely lead to development of
multiple additional surface lows, but all of them will ultimately
end up tracking to the position of the upper center. The bulk of
impacts will will be along the Gulf coast and Kodiak Island, with
occasional rain or rain showers. At this point, none of the
surface lows look particularly strong, so winds for the Gulf
coastal waters look to remain at Small Craft Advisory levels or
lower. For Southcentral and Southwest AK, this pattern will bring
a mix of sun and clouds, with some weak ridging at times but also
the likelihood of upper level short-waves rotating through with
some clouds and showers. This type of pattern is typical for
spring and the details of amount of sunshine (or clouds) and
specific temperatures for each day will have to be worked out as
we get closer and time.

Meanwhile, out west, a deep low will track into the far western
Bering Sea Monday night through Tuesday, with a leading frontal
system progressing eastward across the Bering and Aleutians. This
storm system will rapidly weaken Tuesday night through Wednesday
as the downstream ridge gets flattened out and upper jet support
weakens. A remnant weak low will exit to the Pacific late
Thursday. Bottom line, expect low impact weather for the Bering
and Aleutians next week.

-SEB

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions winds will persist. The strong southeasterly
Turnagain Arm winds will persist through most of the night.
However the strongest wind gusts to near 35 kt should mainly be in
the late afternoon through early evening.

&&