Storm Warning 74, NWS Anchorage, AK

876 
FZAK52 PAFC 161059
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-162330-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low 40 nm north of Cold Bay moves 70 nm south of Goodnews
Bay at 985 mb by Thu morning, then moves over Southwest Alaska 
Thu afternoon. A front moves into the western Bering and Aleutians
Thu morning through Fri morning.

$$

PKZ750-162330-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ751-162330-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ752-162330-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ753-162330-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ754-162330-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ755-162330-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ756-162330-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ757-162330-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ758-162330-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ759-162330-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ770-162330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ772-162330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ771-162330-
Unalaska Bay-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft 
subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 
40 kt early. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ773-162330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ774-162330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ775-162330-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ776-162330-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ777-162330-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ778-162330-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ780-162330-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ781-162330-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ782-162330-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ783-162330-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ784-162330-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ785-162330-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ786-162330-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ787-162330-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ766-162330-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ760-162330-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt early. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ761-162330-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ762-162330-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-162330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
Widespread snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Snow showers.
Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.

$$

PKZ764-162330-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft subsiding to
7 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Snow.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ765-162330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ767-162330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
259 AM AKDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NW 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The forecast remains on track for a high pressure ridge today and
generally quiet weather for Southcentral. The exception will be
for Kodiak Island this afternoon as a front lifts into the Gulf.
Later tonight, that front continues to lift farther north,
increasing precipitation chances for the Kenai Peninsula and
western Prince William Sound. Some cooler air could dam up against
the Kenai mountains leading to the initial onset of precipitation
as snow before warmer air scours out the cooler air Wednesday.
There is ample moisture associated with this system and rain could
become heavy at times. Seward could see 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain
through Thursday morning. The majority of which is expected to
fall in the 24 hour period from Wednesday morning through Thursday
morning. Amounts will depend on the flow through and across the
area as the front progresses in time.

Gusty winds could also become potentially damaging Wednesday.
Winds of 75 mph or greater is looking more likely for the Portage
Valley, through Turnagain Arm, and affecting higher elevations
such as the Anchorage Hillside and Eagle River. Communities that
are easily subjected to southerly and easterly terrain gaps will
also see gusty winds Wednesday. The Matanuska Valley and Copper
River will likely have gusts of 35 to 45 mph with an isolated gust
to 60 mph possible for the Butte and Palmer area. Anchorage Bowl
will also experience gusty winds, though there is less confidence
on the strength of the winds due to the influence of down Inlet
flow that would help to bend the Turnagain Arm jet southward.

General improvement is expected for Thursday as the low pushes
east through through the Gulf. Models slightly differ in the
surface features and embedded troughs, but lingering showers will
be possible along with southerly gusty winds into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...

Key Points...

* A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Eastern Aleutians
  now through 1 AM Thursday. Expect snow and blowing snow with 8
  to 20 inches of accumulation and gusts of 50 to 65 mph.

* A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the southern AK
  Peninsula until 11 AM this morning (Tuesday). Expect snow and
  blowing snow with 2 to 6 inches of accumulation and wind gusts
  up to 45 mph.

* A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from this evening (Tuesday)
  through Wednesday evening for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. 2 to 6
  inches of snow is possible along with winds gusting as high as
  45 mph and visibility as low as one quarter mile.

* A Special Weather Statement issued for the Western Capes
  concerning a period of snow, blowing snow, and reduced
  visibility from this afternoon through this evening before a
  changeover to rain commences.

The forecast remains mostly on track. The well-advertised powerful
North Pacific low will continue to track to the northeast today,
over the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) late tonight, and into
the eastern Bering Wednesday morning. Snow will continue to pick
up in intensity today across Unalaska. The heaviest snow is
expected to fall early this evening through early Wednesday
afternoon before snow rates begin to decrease. Akutan looks to
also see a prolonged period of snow due to the slight jog east in
storm track which will allow cold air to hang on longer.
Elsewhere, Cold Bay, False Pass, and King Cove are all reporting
snow this morning with the worst conditions from King Cove
westward. Warmer air is expected to advance northward and turn
precipitation over to rain/snow mix and eventually to rain by this
afternoon across the southern AKPEN.

The front will continue to advance northward to the mainland
Southwest coast by early afternoon. With cold air initially in
place across the Bristol Bay and the northern AKPEN, a period of
snow is expected late this morning into the afternoon before a
change over to rain occurs this afternoon and evening. Southeast
Kamishak Gap winds will be particularly gusty into Iliamna, New
Stuyahok, and Koliganek this evening into Wednesday before
diminishing Wednesday evening. These winds will provide the warm
air and limit the snow period for the interior. The Western Capes
look to remain colder for longer as opposed to interior Bristol
Bay. As snow arrives there this afternoon in conjunction with
increasing easterly to east-northeast winds, visibility could be
significantly reduced around Goodnews Bay and Platinum. The worst
conditions will be around Cape Newenham before warmer air works in
through tonight and changes precipitation to rain.

The front then makes it into the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim
Delta coast late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The coldest
locations will be Mekoryuk, Toksook Bay, and Mertarvik where they
have the best chance at seeing blizzard conditions Wednesday
morning into Wednesday evening; especially for Mekoryuk where they
look to stay the coldest for the longest time.

Meanwhile, showery conditions continue across Bristol Bay and the
the AKPEN for most of Wednesday and Thursday. Steadier
precipitation will occur in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley as the
front continues to push inland during the day. Cold air wraps
around the storm from the north and through the eastern Bering to
the southern AKPEN on Wednesday as the low center continues to
linger weaken and linger around Cape Newenham. With upper-level
shortwaves continuing to pivot and drop southward around the
storm, the southern AKPEN could see another round of snow showers
with reduced visibility at times Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning.

Finally, this low opens into a trough Thursday afternoon and
evening with showers beginning to diminish across mainland
Southwest Alaska Friday morning. Showery activity will be more
confined to the higher terrain the Kuskokwim Mountains,
Alaska/Aleutian Ranges as westerly upslope flow ensues.

Farther out west, a Kamchatka low will send its front into the
western Bering and Western Aleutians late Wednesday night. This
will be a warm system and one that is not overly strong. Expect
some gusty southeasterly winds and rain to move from the Western
Aleutians Wednesday night to the Eastern Aleutians by Friday
morning. Another weak North Pacific low approaches the Western
Aleutians Friday morning with another round of rain and southeast
winds.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Fri through Mon)...

Low pressure will push into the central Aleutians by midweek,
then move up into the AKPEN for Thursday and into the northern
Gulf by the end of the week. This low will bring a widespread mix
of rain and snow to southcentral for Friday and Saturday, becoming
more showery as the low moves east into the panhandle by Sunday.
Behind this system, high pressure will build north into the Gulf
on Sunday to help dry things out.

In the west, a Bering low will stall out in the central Bering
and begins to weaken as it remains nearly stationary through
Monday. This system will bring periods of rain and windy
conditions to the the Aleutians and coastal western Alaska, but
there remains some uncertainty as to whether this system will
remain strong or stay in place.

- Baker

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected. Winds from Turnagain Arm will
strengthen this afternoon and then weaken tonight. Low level
windshear is possible Wednesday morning if surface winds remain
light at the airport and stronger winds above the surface and
through Turnagain Arm arrive Wednesday morning. Gusts to 30 mph
returns to the terminal by Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is
low whether stronger winds will bend toward the terminal from
Turnagain Arm.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
929 AM AKDT Tue Apr 15 2025

AKZ765-766-161400-
Inland Bristol Bay-Lake Iliamna / Nila Vena / Nanvarpak-
Including the cities of New Stuyahok, Koliganek, Aleknagik,
Iliamna, Kokhanok, Nondalton, and Port Alsworth
929 AM AKDT Tue Apr 15 2025

...STRONG AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

Strong easterly winds and gusts will affect nearly all of the
Inland Bristol Bay and Lake Iliamna regions late this evening
through early Wednesday afternoon. Winds will quickly increase
later this afternoon as a strong frontal system moves into the
Bristol bay region. The peak of the strongest winds and gusts is
expected to occur between 1 AM Wed and 11 AM Wed. Expect wind
gusts of 55 to 70 mph during this time, with the core of the
strongest wind gusts from Iliamna west to Koliganek and New
Stuyahok. Winds are then expected to slowly diminish through
Wednesday afternoon and evening as the front lifts north of the
region.