Storm Warning 66, NWS Anchorage, AK

974 
FZAK52 PAFC 031138
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040015-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 mb North Pacific low moves to 220 nm SE of Chignik at 976 
mb by Sat morning. A 994 mb South Kamchatka low and its front 
approaches the Western Aleutians and Bering from Fri morning 
through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ750-040015-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ751-040015-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ752-040015-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ753-040015-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ754-040015-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ755-040015-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ756-040015-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ757-040015-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ758-040015-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ759-040015-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ770-040015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ772-040015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ771-040015-
Unalaska Bay-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Areas of blowing snow. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Areas of blowing snow. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ773-040015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ774-040015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ775-040015-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Blowing snow.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ776-040015-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ777-040015-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ778-040015-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ780-040015-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ781-040015-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ782-040015-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ783-040015-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ784-040015-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ785-040015-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ786-040015-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ787-040015-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ766-040015-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Snow. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ760-040015-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ761-040015-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ762-040015-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ763-040015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ764-040015-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Snow. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ765-040015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.  Snow.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt.
.MON...W wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ767-040015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
338 AM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Some warmer than normal temperatures are expected today as upper
level ridging remains in place, allowing for some breaks in the
cloud cover during the day. Dry conditions will continue through
today and most of Thursday for the majority of Southcentral. The
pattern shifts on Thursday as the front extending off a North
Pacific low moves into the southern Gulf of Alaska and the
ridging shifts eastwards. As the high shifts eastwards, flow will
become more southwesterly on Wednesday, putting an end to the
gusty offshore gap winds along parts of the Gulf coast. The
pressure gradient driving these winds will essentially reverse by
Wednesday night as a coastal ridge builds along the north Gulf
Coast and over Prince William Sound. This could help a weak
Turnagain Arm wind develop that could bend into west Anchorage
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning before a down-inlet
gradient pulls the Turnagain Arm jet back away from town later on
Thursday morning.

Precipitation starts as early as Thursday evening for Kodiak
Island, reaching the north Gulf coast early Friday morning. Mostly
rain is expected at the lower elevations with snow possible in the
mountains. Snow levels initially could be low enough for wet,
slushy snow through Turnagain Pass, but warming temperatures
should transition snow over to rain even at pass level by Friday
afternoon. Thompson Pass will have the best chance for seeing
several inches of accumulating snow through the end of the week
where snow levels could stay low enough for all snow for much of
this event. Marine winds will increase to small craft
(widespread) and gale force (along the front) with an area of
storm force gusts through the Barren Islands Thursday night and
Friday. Another area of storm force gusts move along the north
Gulf coast Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

Needless to say, there is much to talk about and discuss in the
short term.

Diving into the details, going from east to west, currently there
is still a weak low located north of Nome and a trough of low
pressure affecting the Coastal Kuskokwim Southwest with elevated
winds, fog, and very light precipitation. Observations have shown
visibilities bouncing around from a half mile to 4 miles
throughout the morning, especially around the Kuskokwim Coast,
Bethel area, and even southward into Dillingham. Sounding data
from Bethel is still showing a sharp inversion, indicating warm
air advection from a persistent onshore flow, and also in turn
preventing the moisture from mixing out into the mid and upper
levels. There is also an elongated front stretching from Nunivak
Island southwestward to Adak Station. MOS and high resolution
guidance is suggesting a brief reprieve from these conditions
today, but will deteriorate once again this evening and tonight as
the remnants of the frontal system will have enough forcing to
bring fog and light precipitation back into the picture.

Elsewhere, arguably more impactful weather is affecting the
Aleutian chain. The upper levels have aligned to form a surface
deformation snow band, enhanced by the aforementioned front that
has slowed down a bit just east of Adak Station. This is in effect
causing conditions to quickly go downhill for the Central and
Eastern Aleutians. At the same time, a deep North Pacific low is
beginning to enter the scene, which will start to supply more QPF
to the Central and Eastern Aleutians and will help to form a
robust late season, moderate to high impact winter storm. Due to
the large pressure gradient difference from a broad high sitting
west of Shemya and the North Pacific low making its way to the
Aleutian islands, northerly gap winds will also become an issue
starting late today into Thursday. Winds could reach storm force
criteria, particularly on the southern side of the Central
Aleutians as the pressure gradient forced and cold air advecting
wind is amplified by the northwest flow on the northwestern flank
of the surface low.

As the heart of the storm fully materializes, the likelihood of a
full fledged blizzard increases for the Central and Eastern
Aleutians and the Kuskokwim Coast beginning midday Thursday and
lasting through Saturday afternoon. This looks to be a rain to
snow changeover setup, with more rain possibly mixing in and
hanging on longer at sea level for the Aleutians, and considerably
more snow along favorable windward slopes of higher terrain and
mountainous regions. The duo of dynamic cooling from the upper low
in the Southern Bering and latent heat of melting cooling the
atmosphere from heavy precipitation rates will most likely change
rain to heavy wet snow for these regions. Snow and blowing snow
with reduced visibility is also possible for communities south
and east of Kipnuk. However, blizzard conditions are less likely
for these locations. There will be a rain/snow line that sets up
somewhere between the Eastern Aleutians and the AK Pen at this
timeframe late Thursday into Friday as warm 40F+ air surges into
the Southwest due to the positioning and track of the low, making
this a rainmaker for places like Dillingham and King Salmon. The
Eastern Aleutians look to be the hardest hit with 10-18" of heavy
snow (localized areas of 20"+), and strong 45-60 mph winds
possible with this system.

Likewise, the Coastal Kuskokwim Delta including Nunivak Island
will see strong winds return and snow along the frontal boundary,
which has the potential to cause blizzard conditions, in part due
to the sea ice still in place along the coast. This has prompted a
Winter Storm Watch for these regions from Thursday morning
through Saturday afternoon, with the possibility of an extension
into late Saturday and early Sunday. The biggest impacts from
heavy snow and wind will be felt Thursday evening through Friday.
Guidance does indicate that there will be some warm air intrusion
from the interior Southwest into southern portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta around this time as well, which may in turn
considerably reduce snow totals as rain mixes in or becomes the
predominant p-type for a period of time. Therefore, forecast snow
amounts for southern regions of the Kuskokwim Delta may need more
fine tuning. Snow and strong, gusty winds will slowly begin to
taper off starting late Friday and early Saturday from southwest
to northeast.

Please stay tuned to the forecast to be aware of any changes and
updates, such as upgrades from the (2) Winter Storm Watches
currently in place as we come closer to this system unfolding.

-AM/CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday to Tuesday)...

Some increasing amplitude comes with the changes on the Alaska
Weather map through the forecast period. The upper level Eastern
Bering trough slips into the Central Alaska Mainland for Tuesday.
An upper level closed low South of Alaska Peninsula moves into the
Southern Gulf of Alaska and consolidates its link with the
Mainland trough by Tuesday. An upper ridge over the Western
Canadian Provinces adjusts to the movement and shortwaves rotating
through the pattern, while a second upper ridge builds over most
of the Bering through the period. A forecast blend of the GFS and
ECMWF maintains good continuity over the features' strength and
movement through the weekend, but the GFS slides to the South with
the Gulf of Alaska low by Tuesday.

A moderately strong surface low South of the AKPEN pushes across
the Southern Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday. Locally heavy rains
and gale force winds span from the AKPEN across Kodiak Island
through Sunday. High end gales are expected through bays and
passes. The Rain and gusty winds spread over the Southcentral
Alaska coasts to the Canadian Border through Tuesday. Locally
heavy snow is expected over higher terrain inland Monday and
Tuesday. Rain and snow extends from this low into Southwest
Alaska, with gusty winds from Nunivak Island into the Eastern
Aleutians. Out West, a well developed low and front approaches the
Western and Central Aleutians, bringing rain and gusty winds
through Monday, with most of more significant weather remaining
offshore through Tuesday.

- Kutz

&&.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist until late
tonight when the Turnagain Arm jet develops and could bend gusty
southeasterly winds towards the terminal.

&&