Storm Warning 46, NWS Anchorage, AK

168 
FZAK52 PAFC 111234
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-120100-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 947 mb low 250 nm northwest of Shemya this morning continues to
exit northwest toward Kamchatka. Its front lingers along the 
Southwest Alaska coastline through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-120100-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ751-120100-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ752-120100-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ753-120100-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ754-120100-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ755-120100-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ756-120100-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ757-120100-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ758-120100-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ759-120100-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ770-120100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ772-120100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ771-120100-
Unalaska Bay-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-120100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ774-120100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ775-120100-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ776-120100-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ777-120100-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ778-120100-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ780-120100-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ781-120100-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ782-120100-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ783-120100-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ784-120100-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ785-120100-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ786-120100-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ787-120100-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ766-120100-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ760-120100-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ761-120100-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ762-120100-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-120100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ764-120100-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-120100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ767-120100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE wind 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Ridging persists across much of Southcentral over the next couple
of days and keeping most areas dry. There has been and will
continue to be a very gradual easterly shift of the ridge as a
frontal boundary skids northwards across the southern Gulf of
Alaska. However, the ridge will remain strong enough to keep the
front nearly stationary over Kodiak Island/southern Kenai
Peninsula.

For Kodiak Island, rain and low clouds will continue through at
least Tuesday night bringing rainfall totals of 1.00" to 2.00".
Winds will be east/southeasterly with gusts to 45 mph possible
across Kodiak Island (especially over Afognak Island) and up to 60
mph near the Barren Islands. Temperatures will hover near 40F
today and tomorrow, keeping precipitation as all rain at the
surface. Snow levels ranging 2000' to 2500' will allow for snow
along the higher elevations. Similar conditions are expected along
portions of the southern Kenai Peninsula with rain and high
elevation snow fall. The strongest will will remain just to the
south through the Barren Islands, though gusts to 30 mph are
possible near Seldovia.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Overall, the forecast remains on track; only minor updates have
been made to the previous forecast. Generally expect strong winds
to persist through Tuesday as a ~940 mb low and its front extend
across the Bering Sea and into coastal Southwest Alaska. Most
areas will see periods of light rain; the exception to this will
be the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula, where persistent
onshore flow will lead to upwards of an inch of rain. By
Wednesday, winds diminish and temperatures begin to drop as the
storm system exits the region.

Diving into the details... it's been a windy evening and night
for the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, and Southwest Alaska. For
the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, the low and its front have
brought 70+ mph gusts to Adak and Nikolski, and 60+ mph gusts to
Dutch Harbor, Cold Bay, and King Cove. For Southwest Alaska, a
robust shortwave moving north along the coast has been the primary
weather maker: a gust of 71 mph was reported at Platinum near
Goodnews Bay, while gusts of 60+ mph were reported at King Salmon
and Koliganek.

Confidence is high that strong winds will continue through about
Tuesday morning, though there have been some minor updates since
yesterday afternoon's forecast package. Most notably, the coverage
and duration of storm force winds over marine areas have been
lowered as models trend towards sub-storm force winds. Over land,
wind speeds have been bumped up as observations have over-
performed in favored gap locations like Cold Bay and King Salmon.

Looking ahead to early Tuesday morning, one aspect of the forecast
that we're less confident in is the evolution of an upper level
shortwave and its attendant surface low. Some models are hinting
at a stronger surface low and, therefore, increased chances of
storm force winds early Tuesday morning from Bristol Bay north to
the Kuskokwim Delta coast. However, should the surface low lean
weaker, winds will likely remain at gale force. As a middle
ground, have trended winds towards high-end gales in the forecast.
The uncertainty associated with this surface low will also affect
rain chances along the Southwest coastline, although any
precipitation that falls should remain light.

By Wednesday, conditions improve as the strong storm system
weakens and exits the region. Still, weaker shortwave troughs
moving through the area will keep the weather unsettled.

-Chen

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Predictability in the extended forecast looks about as high
confidence as you can get in the field of medium-range
meteorology. The feature most responsible is a large sprawling
dome of high pressure that extends well into the upper atmosphere
over the Arctic, stretching southward over the Great Land. The
closed high pressure, a blocking high, is keeping the prevailing
storm track south of the Aleutians which looks to continue through
at least the weekend. As far as impactful weather, there looks to
be a front impacting the western Aleutians on Friday, and another
low pressure system south of the Gulf of Alaska that swings a
front northward toward the Gulf Coast over the weekend.

One feature to keep an eye on will be a disturbance associated
with an upper- level trough over northern Canada. That upper-level
shortwave looks to have implications on our sensible weather,
perhaps the next chance at precipitation for many locations across
the southern Mainland. As it currently looks in the models, that
wave will bring a return of Arctic air across Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska, Friday into the weekend. More uncertain with
this scenario will be how that disturbance interacts with the
prevailing storm track, namely whatever energy is left over in the
Gulf of Alaska. Currently, the GFS/ECMWF are showing moisture and
energy being pulled from the Gulf being pulled over the Mainland,
as snow. However, lots can change in a week but that looks like
the next real chance for active weather. Until then enjoy clear
and colder for Southcentral Alaska, with dry and mild(for winter)
for Southwest Alaska.

MTL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected to continue through much of the
period, though, there is a chance for fog and/or low clouds to develop
over Cook Inlet by early Monday morning as high pressure starts to
push eastwards. Otherwise, calm winds and high clouds beginning to
work in from the south and east through Monday night.

&&