Storm Warning 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

123 
FZAK51 PAFC 200016
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-201330-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1005 mb low 45 nm south of Seldovia moves to 50 nm east of 
Whittier at 1007 mb by Mon morning, then dissipates. On Tue 
morning, a 989 mb low 125 nm south of Sand Point extends a front 
east, across the central Gulf. The low moves north to 75 nm north 
of Cold Bay at 986mb by Tue afternoon, pushing its front north 
into the northern Gulf. 

$$

PKZ710-201330-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ711-201330-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ712-201330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ715-201330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ716-201330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ714-201330-
Resurrection Bay-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ724-201330-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ725-201330-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ726-201330-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ720-201330-
Port of Valdez-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-201330-
Valdez Narrows-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-201330-
Valdez Arm-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ723-201330-
Passage Canal-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Gusts to 25 kt
near Whittier after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier in the morning. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-201330-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ731-201330-
Barren Islands East-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ733-201330-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ732-201330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ734-201330-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ736-201330-
Chiniak Bay-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ737-201330-
Marmot Bay-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ738-201330-
Shelikof Strait-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ742-201330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ740-201330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ741-201330-
Kachemak Bay-
316 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A fairly strong frontal system now entering the southwestern Gulf
remains the primary driver of impactful weather across
Southcentral Alaska through early Monday. This system is
encountering a sharp and amplified ridge axis extending from the
eastern Gulf into the eastern Mainland, which is gradually
shifting east into Canada. The slower progression of the trough
has allowed for the development of a low-pressure system over the
northern Gulf and southern Prince William Sound, which, combined
with the advancing front, is expected to enhance precipitation and
wind across the region.

Ahead of the main frontal system, light precipitation has
developed along the coastal mountains due to upslope flow from
southeasterly winds. Model guidance has exhibited a wet bias in
areas where precipitation is primarily driven by upsloping flow.
However, stronger forcing and dynamic lift will arrive tonight
into early Sunday as the frontal wave lifts northward, bringing an
increase in precipitation rates particularly around the Prince
William Sound and the surrounding mountain ranges.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Turnagain Pass from 6
PM this evening through midnight Sunday night where 12 to 20
inches of heavy snow are forecasted with snowfall rates of over 1
inch per hour are possible. An advisory is also in effect for
Thompson Pass from midnight tonight through 9 AM Monday where 20
to 30 inches of heavy snow are expected.

A deformation band is expected to develop over the western Kenai
Peninsula, slowly pushing eastward into Anchorage and the Mat-Su
Valley into Sunday night. While the primary energy and moisture
will remain over the Gulf, this band may bring a period of
moderate to heavy precipitation, including the potential for
heavy, wet snow in localized areas. Accumulations in lower
elevations will likely be minor, with surface temperatures near or
above freezing. However, the northern Susitna Valley and Hatcher
Pass could see several inches of snow due to enhanced
precipitation from south to southwesterly upslope flow.
Additionally, snow totals of several inches are expected in Paxson
and Isabel Pass under similar conditions.

Easterly winds will increase late tonight across the Anchorage
Hillside, Turnagain Arm, and Portage Valley as the system
approaches. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 60
mph are forecasted in Portage Valley and Turnagain Arm, with even
stronger gusts of 60 to 80 mph possible along the Upper Anchorage
Hillside, including Bear Valley and Upper Potter Valley. These
winds will peak through mid to late Sunday morning before
gradually tapering off by late Sunday afternoon.

Precipitation and winds across Southcentral will begin to
diminish late Sunday night into Monday morning as the trough exits
eastward into the Copper Basin. A brief shortwave ridge will
follow on Tuesday morning, providing a short-lived break in the
weather. However, another frontal system is expected to approach
the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the potential for
renewed precipitation and wind impacts.

Eovino

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Saturday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon)...

A compact surface low is currently crossing the Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN), aiding in the continuation of winds and precipitation to
Southwest. Moderate to heavy snow will fall at higher elevations
of the Aleutian Range and Wood River mountains, while light rain
more showery in nature is expected for the rest of the region.

A low pressure system moving in from the North Pacific will begin
to impact the Aleutians tomorrow morning as the low center tracks
just south of the Aleutian Chain, enhancing winds and precip as
shortwave troughs spin up into the Bering Sea. This pattern is a
good setup for a potential blowing snow event for the Pribilof
Islands and Nunivak Island Monday into Tuesday. Models are not in
very good agreement as to the exact track, bringing some
uncertainty in timing and intensity. We will continue to monitor
this closely.

The front associated with this system will bring gale-force winds
and moderate precip Monday and Tuesday as it marches eastward up
the AKPEN and into the Bristol Bay Region. Mixed rain and snow is
expected for more inland locations before a transition to all
rain on Tuesday as southerly flow continues to bring in warm air.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The active weather pattern over Alaska will continue as a number
of upper level shortwaves rotate across the region through the
forecast period. Late in the week, additional energy from a
transient North Pacific low will add to the movement.

Some lingering areas of rain moving across the southcentral
coasts Wednesday will have a brief reprieve Thursday. The next low
brings locally heavy rain, or a rain and snow mix spreading
across southwest Alaska, the northern AKPEN and Kodiak Island for
Friday, with rain and snow moving into the Kenai and south central
Alaska for Saturday.

&&

Baker

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light north to northwesterly winds at the surface with
southeasterly winds of 30-40 kt at or above 1500 ft will
contribute to continued low-level wind shear through Sunday
afternoon. Current VFR ceilings of 15-20 kft will begin to lower
to under 10 kft Saturday night and then to low VFR by Sunday
morning. A short period of precipitation is likely to push through
the terminal Sunday afternoon/evening. Visibility and ceilings
may drop as low as IFR for a few hours if precipitation falls as
snow before improving back to VFR in the late evening as a light
southeasterly wind kicks in behind the front.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
939 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

AKZ103-191800-
East Turnagain Arm-
Including the cities of Girdwood and Portage
939 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...STRONG EASTERLY WINDS FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND EAST TURNAGAIN
ARM FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

Easterly winds will increase tonight as a system approaches the
region from the south. Expect winds to begin increasing late
tonight and continuing through mid to late morning Sunday before
gradually decreasing. Portage Valley and along Eastern Turnagain
Arm could see sustained easterly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts
of 45 to 65 mph. Occasional gusts to 70 mph are possible near the
Portage Glacier Visitor Center.