Storm Warning 141, NWS Anchorage, AK

052 
FZAK52 PAFC 141222
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150130-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 982 mb low 90 nm S of Saint Paul dissipates through this
afternoon. A 975 mb low moves to 180 nm W of Shemya this 
afternoon and then moves to 140 nm N of Shemya at 970 mb Sat 
afternoon. Its front moves across the Bering through Sat night. A 
separate low develops near 250 nm SW of Nikolski at around 970 mb 
Sat evening. 

$$

PKZ750-150130-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ751-150130-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ752-150130-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ753-150130-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ754-150130-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ755-150130-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ756-150130-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ757-150130-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ758-150130-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ759-150130-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ770-150130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 19
ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ772-150130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ771-150130-
Unalaska Bay-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts to
45 kt before midnight. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ773-150130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ774-150130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ775-150130-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 9 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ776-150130-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 10 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ777-150130-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ778-150130-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ780-150130-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ781-150130-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ782-150130-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ783-150130-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ784-150130-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ785-150130-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ786-150130-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ787-150130-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 32 ft.

$$

PKZ766-150130-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ760-150130-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ761-150130-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ762-150130-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ763-150130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ764-150130-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ765-150130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ767-150130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
322 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 35 kt
increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 AM AKST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday Night)...

Cold and mostly dry weather remains in place for much of
Southcentral Alaska today. Radar imagery shows snow/rain showers
across Prince William Sound, and also a few very light snow showers
extending from the Talkeetnas and Susitna Valley south through the
Mat Valley and even into Anchorage. Our office in west Anchorage has
measured approximately 3 snowflakes thus far overnight. Today will
be similar to the last couple days with temperatures near or just a
few degrees below climatological-averages and some sunshine able to
peak through later.

A front begins to push into and across Kodiak Island from the west
late tonight into tomorrow morning. Models have trended a bit wetter
with this front as it moves across Kodiak Island. Can't rule out
some snow at onset, but generally most precipitation will fall as
rain at/near sea level on Friday, including for Kodiak City. Small
craft (>23kts) winds will expand across much of the western Gulf,
while winds strengthen to gale-force (>34kts) across southern
Cook Inlet close to Augustine and perhaps the Barren Islands, as
well as through Shelikof Strait.

The front and preceding onshore flow will bring snow(some low-
elevation rain) to the Gulf coast of the Kenai Peninsula and perhaps
just ever so slightly into the Prince William Sound before
dissipating as the parent low shifts east and south across the Gulf
on Saturday.

Elsewhere/inland locations, cold and generally dry, calm conditions
will prevail through the end of the week with temps very gradually
trending warmer with each day.

-Brown

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A remnant front and trough axis remains situated across Southwest
Alaska coastal areas and extends southward across the Alaska
Peninsula. Some weak radar (snow) returns have been noted this
morning as well as areas of mid level (3000-5000 ft) clouds, which
has helped to negate radiational cooling and has kept
temperatures in the 20s to near 30F for the Alaska Peninsula and
coastal Southwest Alaska locations. Elsewhere across the
Kuskokwim- Delta interior, skies have cleared and winds are light
to calm, which has allowed temperatures to cool well below
guidance this morning. High resolution guidance shows the trough
axis dissipating by mid morning, but expect clouds to linger
across coastal Southwest Alaska for the rest of today with skies
to remain mostly clear for the interior.

Farther west, the setup is more active as a pair of ~990 mb
surface lows can be seen on satellite. One low is centered south
of Nikolski and another is moving across Amchitka and Adak. Upper
level dynamics shows the western-most low has aligned with a
digging trough moving over the Western Aleutians, while the low to
the east is moving underneath a broad upper level ridge with an
embedded subtle shortwave rippling through the upper level mean
flow. The global models show the western surface low deepening and
expanding in size while under the influence of the digging trough
as it travels into the Bering, while the eastern low remains
steady-state as it moves northeastward towards the Alaska
Peninsula. Deterministic models show the smaller low being
absorbed into the larger low's trough axis Thursday evening into
early Friday morning, with the dominant low situated in the
vicinity of the Pribilof Islands.

With a surface high developing well south of the Aleutian Chain
and a relatively strong ~975 mb low near the Pribilof Islands,
pressure gradient induced westerly gales become likely late
Thursday for the Aleutians. With the high shifting eastward in
tandem with the eastward progression of the low to the north,
westerly gales gusting to storm force will likely traverse the
Chain from west to east through Friday evening.

The pattern becomes increasingly active heading into the weekend.
Models are still a bit all over the place with placement and
timing, but the general idea is that another pair of low pressure
systems make their way northward from the North Pacific. Models
have latched on to the idea that one low ventures northwest of
Shemya Saturday morning, while a deeper, yet more compact low
rides northward and west of the aforementioned surface high. The
Canadian and ECMWF are the fastest at bringing the latter low to
the Aleutian Chain, but differ significantly on how the deep the
low becomes. The GFS and NAM agree well on intensity, but still
differ somewhat on location and timing. Please stay tuned to the
forecast as details hopefully become clearer in the next couple of
days as this low has the potential to be impactful to the
Aleutians and points northward.

-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

For Southcentral, the long term forecast reflects the eastward
displacement of the persistent Gulf of Alaska trough into Canada
by early monday morning, allowing a ridge of high pressure to
ridge into the region. This will bring cooing temperatures across
Southcentral through mid-week.

The larger weather concerns are for Pribilofs, Southwest Alaska
and Aleutian Islands. A deepening North Pacific low, embedded with
a broad upper level Bering trough will lift northwestward from
the Central Aleutians, delivering gale-to-storm force winds and
heavy precipitation across the southern Bering Sea, including the
Pribilofs before before weakening early in the week. A second
North Pacific low pressure system is forecasted to cross over the
Aleutians late Monday and into Tuesday. This will bring sustained
southerly to southwesterly flow and elevating precipitation
probabilities across Southwest Alaska. The exact path of the
system is somewhat uncertain as there is very little agreement
between the major global models. A frontal boundary advancing
onshore Tuesday and into Wednesday will reinforce above-normal
temperatures and precipitation with the potential for coastal
rainfall and inland mixed precipitation in the elevated terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Very light
snow showers around the Anchorage bowl will continue to diminish
this morning. Pockets of fog or low stratus are possible again
tonight, but coverage and confidence is too low for TAF inclusion
at this point.

&&