Storm Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

574 
FZAK61 PAFC 101242
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-110215-
342 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

Several troughs move across the Gulf through Sat afternoon. 
A 975 mb low moves to 55N 153W Sat morning and then over the 
Kenai Peninsula Sat afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-110215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
342 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2025

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft subsiding 
to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt 
after midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft building 
to 23 to 31 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-110215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
342 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2025

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt 
after midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 15 to 30 ft 
after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 21 to 35 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 30 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 23 to 32 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

443 
FZAK61 PAFC 110049
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-111330-
349 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 971 mb N Pacific low moves 120 nm SE of Homer at 985 mb Sat 
morning before lifting into the Eastern Kenai Peninsula Sat 
afternoon. A front moves over the North Gulf Coast and extends into 
the Eastern Gulf by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-111330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
349 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 31 ft building to 26 to 32
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 35 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 24 to 29 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-111330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
349 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2025

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 18 to 29 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 23 to 36 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 30 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 23 to 32 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 24 to 31 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

781 
FZAK61 PAFC 111218
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 AM AKST Sat Jan 11 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-120300-
318 AM AKST Sat Jan 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 980 mb low at 55N 153W moves into Prince William Sound and 
dissipates this afternoon. A separate front moves into the 
southern Gulf tonight. 

$$

PKZ351-120300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
318 AM AKST Sat Jan 11 2025

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft building to 
27 to 34 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 35 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 21 to 28 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 25 to 34 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-120300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
318 AM AKST Sat Jan 11 2025

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 22 to 37 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 23 to 36 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 25 to 36 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

163 
FZAK61 PAFC 120054
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 PM AKST Sat Jan 11 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-121345-
354 PM AKST Sat Jan 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front entering the Southwestern Gulf moves over the North Gulf 
Coast for Mon morning. Its 992 mb North Pacific low moves to 55N 
149W at 987 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-121345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
354 PM AKST Sat Jan 11 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 35 kt becoming SE 35 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 21 to 28 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 28 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt becoming SW 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 25 to 34 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-121345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
354 PM AKST Sat Jan 11 2025

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 28 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 24 to 34 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 25 to 36 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

271 
FZAK61 PAFC 121244
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-130230-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A strong front moves across the Gulf and reaches the North Gulf
Coast by Sun afternoon. A North Pacific low moves to 56N 147W at
990 mb Mon afternoon and then moves to 59N 143W by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ351-130230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2025

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 25 to 32 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 22 to 27 ft subsiding to 16 to 21 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-130230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2025

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 33 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt 
after midnight. Seas 25 to 34 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 20 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

434 
FZAK61 PAFC 130043
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-131345-
343 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A North Pacific low moves to 56N 146W at 990 mb Mon afternoon. It 
then lifts to 59N 143W by Tue morning before moving inland of the 
coast Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-131345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
343 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt becoming SW 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 24 to 32 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 22 to
26 ft subsiding to 16 to 21 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming W 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-131345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
343 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 25 to 34 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
529 AM AKST Thu Jan 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Saturday night)...

Satellite imagery this morning shows a large complex storm tracking
into the Gulf and toward Southcentral. The original low center is
tracking north-northeast toward the central Gulf. A leading warm
front wraps around the northern to western Gulf, with widespread
gale to storm force winds being observed ahead of it. A secondary
low has formed along the front to the southeast of Kodiak Island.
What is most notable is that the bulk of deep moisture (and
implied upward vertical moisture) is all moving over southern
Alaska, with a much more compact area of deeper moisture (and
precipitation) with the low centers. This is because the upper jet
helped drive an upper short-wave well out ahead of the low
center. Precipitation is in fact spreading onshore of
Southcentral, with low elevation rain and high elevation snow
along the coast. Snow is also spreading northward into the Copper
River Basin this morning. Precipitation is attempting to cross
the Kenai and western Chugach Mountains. However, a layer of
northerly winds from the Mat Valley to Anchorage and down Cook
Inlet and portions of the western Kenai Peninsula is maintaining
dry low levels (as seen in the 12Z Anchorage sounding). Thus,
precipitation is not reaching the ground in these areas.

Today's forecast remains quite challenging. Model guidance is
split into two camps with placement of a deformation band which
forms in Cook Inlet today. The global models generally favor a
more south and west location (from the southwestern Susitna Valley
to Kenai/Soldotna and down the Inlet to Kachemak Bay/Homer) while
the hi-res models favor a more north and east location (from
Talkeetna south to Fire Island/west Anchorage and across inland
areas of the western Kenai). With steering flow favoring a general
south to north motion, the portion of the warm front over the
northern Gulf will push onshore while the portion over the western
Gulf will largely remain stationary until it is pushed north and
eastward later today by a short-wave trough moving in from the
Bering Sea. Based on this simple logic, the latest forecast favors
the hi-res guidance location of the deformation band.

The other big forecast challenge is precipitation type. An above
freezing warm nose remains in the Anchorage sounding. However, the
wet bulb temperature is at or below freezing. Thus, if you were to
saturate the atmosphere and there was no significant temperature
advection, the resultant precipitation type would be snow. The
northerly winds and dry air advection will rapidly diminish
midday into the afternoon hours which should allow the atmosphere
to gradually become saturated. In these borderline case,
precipitation type often comes down to precipitation intensity,
which is why the location of the band of heavier precipitation is
so critical to the forecast.

No matter where the band sets up, the upper level short-wave
coming in from the west will cause it to move north and east
across the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su tonight
before weakening/dissipating as it continues across the remainder
of Southcentral. Have trended toward more snow for these areas,
with a band of 2 to 4 inches from Talkeetna southward to Willow,
Big Lake, Anchorage, and the interior western Kenai. Any shift in
the band will affect precipitation type and total snow
accumulation.

The upper level flow will remain progressive as we head through
Friday and into the weekend. An upper level short-wave extending
from a storm moving into the Bering Sea tonight, will cross
Southcentral Friday bringing a quick shot of very light
precipitation to most areas. With little change in airmass,
expect mostly rain along the coast and snow inland. A much
stronger storm system will then track from the north Pacific to
the western Gulf/Kodiak Island Friday night. The ultimate track
of this low is very much in question, with some solutions
bringing it up Cook Inlet Saturday (very warm and windy) and
others bringing it further east (less warm and windy). In either
case, expect another round of moderate to heavy precipitation and
strong winds across the Gulf waters and coastal Southcentral with
a period of mixed precipitation likely inland. An even larger and
stronger storm system will follow late Saturday into Sunday. With
a track up across Southwest AK, this could bring high winds and
very warm temperatures to Southcentral, though it looks like much
colder air will wrap back around the south side of the low and
into Southcentral. Stay tuned to forecast the next several days,
as the weather pattern remains fast paced.

-SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday night)...

A very unsettled pattern is quickly taking shape across the
outlook area this morning as two strong low pressure systems begin
to impact parts of the region. The first of these lows is a
Hurricane force North Pacific low currently moving a ways south of
Amchitka, with a gale force front now extending north and east
from the low into the Aleutian Chain. Predominantly wet snow is
being observed as the frontal precipitation reaches Adak and Atka
early this morning, where surface temperatures are still hovering
at or just above freezing. However, snow should soon change over
to rain later this morning into the early afternoon as the front
continues north and as warmer air continues to stream in with the
approaching storm system. Looking out towards Southwest, another
low moving over the Gulf is spreading gusty north winds into
Bristol Bay and the northern AKPen. A band of rain and snow has
slowly been developing over Bristol Bay near a zone of deformation
and lift northwest of the low center, but it has taken time to
begin reaching the surface due to dry air feeding into the region
from the Kuskokwim Valley with the gusty north winds.

In terms of the forecast, most of the issues and impacts going
into the next day or so will stem from the currently Hurricane
force low moving south of the Aleutians. This low will weaken as
it crosses the Chain into the southern Bering, but it looks even
more likely to retain a more intense wind field compared to
earlier . Storm force winds will move south of the low near and
just south of the eastern Aleutians late this evening into
tonight. Gusts as high as 55 to 65 mph will be possible across
parts of Unalaska as the low passes to the north late tonight into
early Friday morning, particularly with winds funneling through
terrain out of Captain's Bay. Meanwhile, the low's front will
continue to lift northeast, spreading gusty winds and snow
changing over to rain into the Pribilof Islands this evening, then
into parts of Southwest late tonight into Friday morning.

As the low lifts north towards Nunivak Island during the
day on Friday, the wind field will weaken to gale force, but will
still stay strong enough to cause possible impacts to the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Onshore winds could gust up to 40 mph as
the low approaches to the west from Friday afternoon into Friday
night. While there is more sea ice in place along the coast
compared to what we had for the last coastal flood event, there
may still not be enough stronger, shore-fast ice to protect
coastal communities from a possible storm surge with this low.
Even where stronger ice exists, water could pool up through cracks
and cause localized flooding for communities along the immediate
coast near high on Friday evening. Confidence on the degree of
flooding is low, but concern is high enough to justify issuing a
Coastal Flood Advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, which is now
in effect starting midday Friday.

Attention from there quickly shifts to the next strong low setting
up along the active storm track continuing into the weekend. By
late Friday night, another potentially Hurricane force low will
approach Kodiak Island. The center could briefly head up into
Bristol Bay before it veers more northeast towards Southcentral on
Saturday. The main impact across Southwest will be another round
of gusty southwest winds moving in behind the low passage,
especially over southern parts of the region close to Bristol Bay
and the AKPen. Moderate rain and snow will also move north with
the low Friday night into Saturday morning, though temperatures
appear likely to remain too warm for significant snow
accumulation.

If all that wasn't enough to handle, an even stronger, larger low
pressure system will begin to move up into the eastern Bering Sea
from the Pacific from Saturday into Saturday night. Very strong
southeast winds will spread into Southwest along with locally
heavy rain/snow moving back across much of the region as well.
Strong north winds up to Storm force could also move into the
eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs west of the low, where
temperatures could remain cold enough for mostly snow to fall,
especially up towards the Pribilof Islands. There is still some
uncertainty for the track and intensity of this next bigger
system, so stay tuned for updates as we continue to monitor this
very active pattern.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Most of Southern Alaska will continue under a very active weather
pattern through the forecast period. The upper air longwave over
the Bering will be weakening, with the low centers moving into the
Arctic. A couple of significant shortwaves will support a
strengthening surface low in the Eastern Bering bringing heavy
precipitation and strong winds from the Central Aleutians to the
Canadian Border, and into most of Interior and Southwestern
Alaska. This low will push over Western Alaska as it tracks North.

Model guidance with the GFS and ECMWF hold decent synoptic scale
agreement through midweek, but some timing issues complicate the
locations and precipitation types expected due to strong warming
and the advection with the winds. Areas of moderate rains or rain
mixed with snow with gusty outflow winds are expected across
Southwest Alaska, and over Pribilofs and the Central Aleutians
Sunday. Most areas of rain are expected to change to snow by
Wednesday across Western Alaska. Heavy rains and high end gale
force winds are expected from the Eastern Aleutians over the
Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island Sunday. Higher elevations
across the Southcentral coasts will see heavy snow. These
conditions spread over the Kenai Peninsula into Prince William
Sound Sunday night before diminishing across the Southcentral
coasts and the Gulf of Alaska Monday afternoon. Another weak low
and front pushes over the Western and Central Aleutians Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The precipitation forecast is quite difficult for today, so
forecast confidence in ceiling/vis forecast is low. Radar imagery
shows precipitation spreading toward the terminal early this
morning ahead of a complex storm system in the Gulf. However,
northerly winds in the low levels are maintaining a dry layer.
Expect this will remain the case as long as the northerly flow
continues. Thus expect some lowering of ceilings as precipitation
falls aloft this morning, but remaining VFR.

A band of precipitation will form somewhere in northern Cook Inlet
by early this afternoon, along an inverted trough extending
northward from the Gulf. Some models form this well west of the
terminal while some show the eastern edge of this setting up over
the terminal. The forecast leans toward precipitation developing
over the terminal. Winds will quickly diminish midday, so this
should allow saturation of the airmass, which should lead to snow
and ceiling/vis dropping to MVFR - or possibly IFR depending on
precipitation intensity.

No matter where the band of precipitation forms, it will move
north and east this evening, so confidence is higher in
precipitation over the terminal after 03Z with lower ceiling/vis.
If precipitation type ends up as rain or a rain/snow mix, then
ceiling/vis will not get as low.

&&