Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

959 
WWAK61 PAFC 210011
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 PM AKDT Fri Jun 20 2025

AKZ742>744-749-211615-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.250621T2000Z-250622T0600Z/
411 PM AKDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COPPER RIVER VALLEY...

* Winds...Southerly 12 to 20 mph. Gusts to 25 mph, with locally 
  higher speeds near the Copper River.

* Timing...Noon Saturday through 10 PM AKDT Saturday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 25 percent.

* Temperatures...75 to 82 degrees.

* Location...central and western Copper River Valley, including
  Tonsina, Copper Center, Glennallen, Nelchina, and Tolsona.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

325 
WWAK61 PAFC 211218
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 AM AKDT Sat Jun 21 2025

AKZ742>744-749-220100-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.250621T2000Z-250622T0600Z/
418 AM AKDT Sat Jun 21 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN COPPER RIVER VALLEY...

* Winds...Southerly 12 to 20 mph. Gusts to 25 mph, with locally 
  higher speeds near the Copper River.

* Timing...Noon Saturday through 10 PM AKDT Saturday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 25 percent.

* Temperatures...75 to 82 degrees.

* Location...central and western Copper River Valley, including 
  Tonsina, Copper Center, Glennallen, Nelchina, and Tolsona.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

719 
WWAK61 PAFC 220028
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 PM AKDT Sat Jun 21 2025

AKZ742>744-749-220600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250622T0600Z/
428 PM AKDT Sat Jun 21 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN...

* Winds...Southerly 12 to 20 mph. Gusts to 25 mph, with locally 
  higher speeds near the Copper River.

* Timing...Until 10 PM AKDT this evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 20 percent.

* Temperatures...75 to 82 degrees.

* Location...Central and western Copper River Basin, including 
  Tonsina, Copper Center, Glennallen, Nelchina, and Tolsona.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

424 
WWAK61 PAFC 220559
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
959 PM AKDT Sat Jun 21 2025

AKZ742>744-749-220700-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250622T0600Z/
959 PM AKDT Sat Jun 21 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
COPPER RIVER BASIN...

The conditions around the Copper River Basin have improved to
above Red Flag Warning conditions. The conditions are expected to
continue to improve throughout the night and winds are not
expected to be as strong tomorrow. 

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The upper level ridge will start to shift south and east today with
ridge axis near the ALCAN border by this evening. The thermal ridge
will set-up across the Copper Basin today allowing temperatures to
easily climb back into the upper 70s to lower 80s in the river
valleys. Better availability of midlevel moisture into the valley
will allow for higher thunderstorm chances today. As is typical,
storms will generally initiate along the higher terrain then drift
over the valley. Steep lapse rates in the boundary layer and into
the midlevels will allow for relatively strong updrafts but flow
and shear will remain weak. So another day of pulse-type storms
with brief downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Some of
the stronger storms might be capable of small hail. The Susitna
Valley and Talkeetna Mountains may also see some convection, but
it looks to be more isolated.

A front will lift northwards across the western Gulf towards Kodiak
Island today. Cloud cover will start to increase ahead of this front
and should see rain spread over Kodiak this afternoon and evening.
The aforementioned ridge will prevent the front from making too
much more northward progress and looks to wash out near the Barren
Islands. Showers will move into the Kenai Peninsula, but chances
will quickly decrease for areas to the north. A coastal ridge will
set up today across the coastal mountains resulting in some
breezy downslope winds over the Copper Basin late tonight through
Saturday. With the warmer temperatures, lower relative humidity
values, and breezy conditions...the Copper Basin will see
increasing fire weather concerns for Saturday.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday morning)...

Southwest Alaska remains under high pressure this morning as a
low pressure system continues to spin in the North Pacific just
south of the Aleutian Chain between the Central and Eastern
Aleutians. Gusty southeast winds will continue today across the
southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN); especially through Cold Bay.
These winds peaked last night to very early this morning around
65 mph into Cold Bay and will continue to slowly diminish to
around 40 to 45 mph gusts by this evening; but will persist
through the weekend as the low pressure remains to the west and
the pressure gradient remains somewhat tight.

A pattern change begins today across mainland Southwest Alaska as
the weakening front in the Bering Sea moves inland today through
tonight. This will bring in cooler temperatures, higher minimum
humidities, and showers across the area; especially to coastal
Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta coast. The stable and cooler
airmass moving in will also limit chances for thunderstorm
development across the interior through this weekend. Expect the
cooler and stable flow off the Bering to persist across Southwest
through the weekend.

Further west, cloudy and showery conditions across the Central
and Eastern Aleutians through the weekend as a ridge builds across
the western Bering and Western Aleutians Saturday night. This
ridge will weaken as it moves eastward over the central Bering and
Central Aleutians by Monday. Behind this ridge, a front moves
eastward from Kamchatka into the western Bering and Western
Aleutians for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning bringing
rain and gusty southerly to southeast winds to the area. This
front is poised to move across the rest of the Bering and Aleutian
Chain through mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

An elongated upper level trough stretches from Siberia across the
Bering into the Gulf of Alaska through the forecast period. An
upper level ridge extends from Western Canada across the Northern
two-thirds of Mainland Alaska. A number of shortwaves slip through
the pattern through Thursday. A multi-deterministic model blend
covers the synoptic scale features, with the GFS showing its
muscles with the development of a low just South of the Aleutians
on Tuesday, and lasting through the week. Greatest uncertainty
continues with the smaller details.

Warmer temperatures over Interior Alaska continue through
Thursday, with warmest temperatures in the Eastern portions. This
spurs scattered areas of convection across the state. The highest
possibilities for thunderstorms are are expected in the Eastern
Interior. A weakening front over the Central Aleutians Monday
brings rain and breezy conditions into the Southern Alaska
Peninsula before moving into the North Pacific for Tuesday. A
second low and front spreads locally moderate rain in the Western
Aleutians and Bering Monday, pushing across to Southwest Alaska,
AKPEN and Kodiak Island by late Wednesday into Thursday. A weak
wave causes another round of rain to move over the Western and
Central Aleutians late Tuesday through Thursday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
afternoon. Winds will then become more westerly to southwesterly
with some gusts of 10 to 15 kts by Friday evening. The Turnagain
Arm winds will begin to increase Saturday afternoon and may bend
towards the terminal at times Saturday evening.

&&