Gale Warning 901, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKST Mon Dec 29 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Wednesday Night)...

Key Points:

* Strong and gusty winds continue across much of the region this
  morning, but expect a general weakening trend as we head through
  the day. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Matanuska
  Valley, where wind gusts are still reaching as high as 65 to 75
  mph early this morning.

* Light snow will spread from east to west across Southcentral
  today. Where snow and wind coincide, visibilities will be
  severely reduced. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for
  Cordova, Valdez up through Thompson Pass, and Seward and
  travelers should use caution while traveling in these areas.

* Portions of Kodiak Island, including Kodiak City could also
  experience low visibilities in blowing snow, most likely
  tonight. However, there is low forecast confidence in the track
  of surface lows and associated precipitation in the Gulf, so
  this will be closely monitored.

* Dry air in place across the Mat-Su, Anchorage, and western Kenai
  Peninsula means snow will have a hard time reaching the ground.
  Expect nothing more than a brief period of flurries or very
  light snow this afternoon.

* There will be additional chances of snow across the region
  through Wednesday. However, the bigger story will be another
  surge of cold air and winds Tuesday through Tuesday night.
  This will come in from the northwest, with the strongest winds
  expected across Kodiak Island and the western Gulf.

The Arctic trough which brought another round of cold and winds to
Southcentral is now being pushed back to the north and west as a
series of short-wave troughs track northward from the Pacific and
across the eastern Gulf and toward Southcentral. At the surface,
an elongated surface low and occluded front are lifting toward the
north Gulf coast. Radar imagery shows precipitation spreading from
southeast to northwest across the Copper River Basin, and eastern
Prince William Sound (Cordova and Valdez areas). Dry air,
reinforced by the strong offshore winds across Southcentral, means
it will take a bit of time to saturate the atmosphere and allow
snow to reach the ground.

Winds will generally diminish across the region today as the Gulf
storm system rotates westward across Southcentral and the Gulf,
bringing warm air advection and loosening up the pressure and
thermal gradients that are driving the winds right now. The
aforementioned Arctic trough and associated strong jet will be
pushed all the way into Southwest AK where it will begin to shear
apart. While temperatures will warm, the airmass coming from the
Gulf will not be warm enough to change precipitation to rain for
land areas. Precipitation will generally be light, but the
combination of wind and low density snow means the snow will be
easily blown around and reduce visibilities. Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued for Cordova, Valdez/Thompson Pass,
and Seward where some of the stronger winds will combine with
falling snow to severely reduce visibilities. There may be other
more localized areas of blowing snow, including in portions of the
Copper River Basin.

Most of the upper short-waves will rotate westward along coastal
Southcentral, then back southward toward Kodiak Island and the
western Gulf. As a result, snow will begin to fall apart as it
tries to cross the Kenai and Chugach Mountains into the western
Kenai, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su. As a result, expect only
flurries or a brief period of very light snow at most. Kodiak
Island has a chance to see heavier snow and blowing snow depending
on the track of key features across the western Gulf tonight.
Stay tuned, as this can be a good pattern for blizzard conditions
in Kodiak City if precipitation backs in from the Gulf, with
persistent north to northwest surface winds holding in the cold
air. We will continue to track key features and evaluate this
potential hazard.

A portion of the Arctic trough digging south of Kodiak Island this
morning, will develop into a large closed low today and track
toward Southeast AK on Tuesday. This will pull the larger trough
eastward and upper flow over Southcentral and the western Gulf
will shift once again, with weather features tracking from west to
east. Some weak short-waves will keep a chance of snow in the
forecast tonight through Wednesday, especially over interior
Southcentral. However, any snow accumulation with these features
will be light. More significantly, a potent short-wave and strong
jet streak will dive southeastward across Southwest AK Tuesday
night and into the western Gulf Wednesday. This will bring yet
another surge of Arctic air and strong winds. The strongest winds
will be over the western Gulf and Kodiak Island, with good
potential for Hurricane Force wind gusts (65 kt) along the south
side of the Alaska Peninsula into the western Gulf and for Storm
force gusts (50 kt) for Kodiak Island. Secondarily, all of the
gap winds along the north Gulf coast and Prince William Sound
will restrengthen. Thankfully, this is NOT a favorable pattern for
winds in the Matanuska Valley. In fact, winds will likely be
light there. No surprise, the cold spell will continue across the
region.

-SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

An upper level ridge continues to slowly build over the central
and western Bering this morning, allowing for quiet conditions and
light winds to prevail across the central and western Aleutian
Chain. To the southeast of the ridge, a nearly stalled upper
level trough and attendant surface low are drifting over the
western Gulf. An impressive temperature and pressure gradient
persists in between these synoptic systems, causing very strong
north to northwest flow across the eastern Bering Sea, AKPen and
parts of Southwest. The strongest winds are focused along and
south of the AKPen, where channeled flow through mountain gaps is
further enhancing winds. High-end Gale force winds with Storm
force gusts are ongoing along parts of the Pacific side of the
AKPen, with no break in the winds expected anytime soon. This very
strong north to northwest flow has kicked up areas of dust and
ash built up from old eruptions near a few volcanoes, including
Westdahl and Shishaldin. Trace amounts of ashfall from resuspended
ash will be possible over waters immediately south of namely
Unimak Island until winds begin to subside later this week.
Across Southwest, gusty but not as strong winds continue,
especially across parts of Bristol Bay. The gusty winds coupled
with temperatures in the -0s to -10s are creating frigid wind
chills ranging from -10 to -40 this morning.

In terms of the outlook through midweek, the overarching pattern
is expected to hold for the next couple days. The Bering ridge
will slowly shift east towards the eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs
as the surface low over the Gulf drifts northwest toward Kodiak
Island through Tuesday. This will further enhance the tight
gradient between the two features, driving even stronger winds
through the gaps along the Alaska Peninsula. Prevailing winds will
also shift from north-northeasterly to more northwesterly,
favoring stronger channeling of winds through most of the gaps
and passes along the AKPen. Gale force winds will intensify to
Storm force along and south of the AKpen from late tonight into
Tuesday, with gusts to Hurricane force possible out of the typical
gaps and bays near and northeast of Sand Point, such as Wide Bay.
Winds will begin to relax some by Wednesday as the Bering ridge
starts to weaken and as the Gulf low drifts back to the east.

Across Southwest, temperatures will slowly rebound several degrees
in the next day or two as the very cold northerly flow pulling
down Arctic air from the interior also becomes more northwesterly
with time. From Tuesday night into Wednesday, a fast-moving
shortwave trough and associated low will move into the Seward
Peninsula, sending a trailing cold front into the Kuskokwim Delta.
A line of snow showers moving along the front will bring a very
quick-hitting round of light snow to the Kuskokwim Delta as the
front brushes past late Tuesday night. Limited moisture plus the
short duration of snowfall will cap off snow accumulation to half
an inch or less through early Wednesday.

Across the Bering and Aleutians, conditions will become a bit more
unsettled as a North Pacific low pushes a front across the
Aleutian Chain into the southern Bering from Tuesday into
Wednesday. Temperatures will stay warm enough for purely rain
along the front as it lifts steadily northeast and spreads light
to moderate precipitation into the region. Winds along the front
will be nothing out of the ordinary, barely reaching Gale force
sustained as the front arrives near the central and western
Aleutians from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An amplified upper-level pattern continues mid-next week with a
ridge over the Bering Sea and an elongated trough across
Southcentral Alaska anchored by a closed low in the Gulf of
Alaska. Synoptically-forced gap winds through the Alaska Peninsula
and Kamishak will begin to diminish through the day Thursday as a
complex low in the Gulf weakens. Chances for light snow showers
along the southcentral coast/Copper River Basin continue at the
end of next week as warmer air and moisture wrap northward around
the Gulf low.

Out west, a series of fronts and shortwave troughs lift into the
Bering Sea and track along the Aleutians through the end of the
week. These systems bring warmer air with mostly rain to the
Aleutians, though the leading (north) edge of the front could have
precipitation begin as snow for locations on the Alaska Peninsula
and in the Pribilof Islands. Through the end of the week, the
ridge is eroded by the progression of these features, and the
pattern becomes dominated by broad troughing over mainland Alaska
and the Gulf. Given this pattern, it seems likely that even more
cold air will be drawn southward, especially into Southwest
Alaska. This could bring the lowest temperatures seen thus far
this season for next weekend, with ambient temperatures 30 to 40
below zero in the Kuskokwim Valley. Elsewhere across southern
mainland Alaska, temperatures also remain below average.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and ceilings above 5000 ft expected through
the period. Gusty north winds gradually diminish through today,
with gusts to drop below 30 kt by this afternoon. From around 21Z
to 00Z this afternoon, a trough will bring light snow/flurries,
with any accumulations at the surface expected to be minimal due
to the dry air currently in place.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1128 AM AKST Mon Dec 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Ted Stevens Internation 61.18N 150.01W
12/29/2025  M52 MPH          Anchorage          AK   ASOS

            Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts
            of 30 to 45. Max gust of 52 mph as of 11 AM.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1145 AM AKST Mon Dec 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 WNW Palmer            61.63N 149.20W
12/29/2025  M77 MPH          Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Mesonet

            Max wind gust of 77 mph as of 1130 AM Dec
            29th.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1153 AM AKST Mon Dec 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Wasilla Airport         61.57N 149.54W
12/29/2025  M67 MPH          Matanuska-Susitna  AK   AWOS

            Max wind gust as of 1130 AM of 67 mph
            reported both at 156 AM on Dec 29th and at
            645 PM on the 28th.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1156 AM AKST Mon Dec 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 ESE Wasilla           61.56N 149.33W
12/29/2025  M68 MPH          Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Mesonet

            Max wind gust as of 1145 AM of 68 mph
            measured both at 8 AM on Dec 29th and at
            1015 AM on Dec 28th.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1208 PM AKST Mon Dec 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Talkeetna Airport       62.32N 150.09W
12/29/2025  M52 MPH          Matanuska-Susitna  AK   ASOS

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1211 PM AKST Mon Dec 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Lake Hood Seaplane Base 61.18N 149.97W
12/29/2025  M55 MPH          Anchorage          AK   ASOS

&&

PP