Gale Warning 889, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKST Fri Dec 26 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Monday morning)...

Key Points:

* Widespread light snow diminish overnight for most of
  Southcentral Alaska. Snowfall may linger in areas south and east
  of Glennallen into early next week.

* A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Western
  Kenai Peninsula through midday Saturday for snow and blowing
  snow. The worst conditions will be areas near Cook Inlet from
  Anchor Point to Nikiski, where heavier snow rates and strong and
  gusty northerly winds will combine to reduce visibilities.

* High Wind Warnings have been issued for the Matanuska Valley and
  Valdez/Thompson Pass. From 3PM Saturday to 9 PM Monday for the
  Matanuska Valley and from 9 PM Saturday to noon Monday for
  Valdez/Thompson Pass.

* As winds strengthen across Southcentral Saturday, the fresh
  snow on the ground will be easily blown around and could cause
  visibility reductions along area roads.

Weak shortwaves rotating in from the Pacific combined with an
upper level Arctic trough digging southeastward is leading to
light snowfall across most of Southcentral Alaska today. A general
1 to 4 inches of total accumulation is expected before
diminishing tomorrow morning. Light snowfall may linger in the
southeastern Copper River Basin (areas south and east of
Glennallen) through early next week as reinforcing waves of low
pressure move into the northeastern Gulf of Alaska. There is
potential for a long duration significant snowfall for the
southeastern Copper River Basin (including McCarthy), but
confidence in location of key features is low.

The Matanuska Valley and Valdez/Thompson Pass will see another
strong and damaging wind event this weekend as strong cold air
advection receives upper level support from a digging Arctic
trough. A High Wind Warning for the Matanuska Valley has been
issued for 3 PM Saturday through 9 PM Monday. The strongest winds
are expected Sunday through Sunday evening with gusts up to 80 mph
possible. A High Wind Warning has also been issued for Valdez and
Thompson Pass from 9 PM Saturday to noon Monday. High winds may
be slow to weaken through Thompson Pass as tight pressure
gradients and cold air will keep winds flowing through the gap.
Any light snow that falls tonight across all of Southcentral will
be easily lofted with increasing winds, reducing visibilities
along area roadways.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

The forecast remains on track, with several Warnings and
Advisories set to be in effect/or are already in effect across the
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska:

* Winter Weather Advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta and Western
  Capes has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning through 11PM
  tonight.

* Blizzard Warnings in effect for the Eastern Aleutians and
  Northern Bristol Bay coast through Saturday afternoon.

* Winter Weather Advisory for Greater Bristol Bay and Northern
  Alaska Peninsula in effect through Saturday afternoon.

* Winter Weather Advisories for Central and Southern Alaska
  Peninsula through Saturday evening.

* Cold Weather Advisory issued for the Kuskokwim Delta and
  Kuskokwim Valley from tonight until Sunday morning. Cold Weather
  Advisories have also been issued for Lime Village and the
  Central Alaska Peninsula from Saturday evening through Monday
  afternoon.

The active pattern continues as a ~997 mb low in the southern
Bering continues to track east along the Alaska Peninsula this
afternoon, becoming absorbed into a larger trough through this
evening. Its front draped across Bristol Bay continues to bring
widespread snowfall across nearly the entirety of Southwest
Alaska, with the Kuskokwim Delta down through the Northern Bristol
Bay coast seeing blizzard conditions. The previously issued
Winter Weather Advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta has been upgraded
to a Blizzard Warning through 11 PM tonight. Even as snow tapers
off from north to south across the Kuskokwim Delta late this
afternoon through this evening, persistent strong winds may
continue to loft snow on the ground to significantly reduce
visibilities. Additionally, a Blizzard Warning remains in effect
for the Bristol Bay coast through noon Saturday, which will
conclude the long duration snow event that has brought impressive
QPF and snow amounts across Bristol Bay. Winds across Southwest
Alaska continue to strengthen through this evening before peaking
during the overnight hours with gusts to 50 mph. Visibilities
improve through Saturday as snow tapers off from northwest to
southeast.

Rain across the eastern Aleutians and AKPen this afternoon has
begun to transition to snow as the digging Arctic trough works to
quickly cool temperatures this evening. Northerly winds along the
AKPen and Eastern Aleutians increase tonight as the upper level
trough digs across the Bering and pinches off a closed upper level
low in the Northern Pacific by Saturday morning. The strongest
winds are expected mid morning Saturday for the Eastern Aleutians
with gusts around 60-70 mph likely. Thus, a Blizzard warning is in
effect for the Eastern Aleutians through Saturday afternoon. Over
the eastern Bering Sea, storm force winds develop overnight.
Elevated winds look to persist through the weekend, only gradually
diminishing, which may continue to loft snow after precipitation
ends on Saturday.

Across interior Southwest Alaska, specifically portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta, Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and along the Alaska
Range, temperatures will be quite cold, with wind chills/apparent
temperatures dropping to 40 to 50 degrees below zero beginning
Friday night and persisting through the weekend. Along the
Southwest coast, the cold air and gale to storm force winds will
combine to produce a heavy to extreme freezing spray hazard that
also lasts through the weekend.

-JH/AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A highly-amplified upper-level pattern is present early next week
with a ridge over the Bering Sea and an elongated trough across
southern mainland Alaska anchored by a closed low in the Gulf of
Alaska. Yet another round of Southcentral Alaska gap winds will be
gradually diminishing as the Gulf low brings southeasterly flow
and warming temperatures into Southcentral, weakening the
pressure and density gradients along the mountains. Synoptically-
forced gap winds to gale force will also be ongoing through the
Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday, to the west of the stacked, complex
low south of Kodiak Island. With the southeasterly flow wrapping
warmer air and moisture north into Southcentral Alaska, light
snow showers look to be possible through much of next week, though
chances for precipitation are overall fairly low.

Out west, a North Pacific low pushes its front into the
western Aleutians on Tuesday. As the front lifts into the Bering
Sea on Wednesday, a moderately strong upper-level low dives into
Southwest Alaska over top the Bering ridge, bringing another brief
blast of cold air to the region. Cold advection across the Western
Alaska Range/Aleutian Range will lead to another potential round
of storm force gap winds across the Alaska Peninsula and into the
western Gulf of Alaska. Most models then seem to bring a return of
relatively warmer conditions, but the GFS continues the plunge of
Arctic Air which would likely bring the coldest temperatures of
the season so far. However, this is, at the moment, considered a
less likely solution. Along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula,
the Bering front lingers through Thursday and Friday, bringing
warmer air with mostly rain, though the leading (north) edge of
the front could start as snow for locations on the Alaska
Peninsula and in the Pribilof Islands.

Throughout the week, temperatures remain below average across
southern mainland Alaska. The coldest temperatures are likely to
be seen in interior Southwest Alaska, where ambient temperatures
reach 20 to 30 below zero on Wednesday. The Copper River Basin, a
favored cold spot, is expected to be warmer than many of the
recent cold spells through much of the week.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Snow will continue to spread north this evening with
ceilings steadily falling with onset of light snow. Conditions
will slowly begin to improve Saturday morning as snow clears out
and as ceilings and visibility slowly shift back towards VFR
levels. However, winds increasing to around 15 to 20 kts could
still cause minor blowing and drifting snow around the terminal
from late tonight through Saturday. Wind gusts could reach 30 to
40 kts overnight Saturday into Sunday.

&&