Gale Warning 863, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKST Fri Dec 19 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday evening)...

The forecast remains on track with the main update being to
upgrade the High Wind Watches to High Wind Warnings for the
Matanuska Valley and Valdez/Thompson Pass for this weekend.
Therefore, little change to the discussion below.

Key Message:
Winds will increase again this weekend, especially through the
Matanuska Valley, Thompson Pass, and Valdez. Gusty conditions
could also make it into North/West Anchorage.

We are now in the third week of this same cold, dry and windy
pattern which is increasing winds every few days as short waves
drive stronger winds aloft toward the surface. This means that for
the third weekend in a row there will be strong winds in the
Matanuska Valley and Valdez/Thompson Pass where High Wind Watches
have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings for parts of this coming
weekend. The good news for the Matanuska Valley, is that winds do
not appear likely to reach the same magnitude as either of the
past two weekends. At this time, it looks likely that maximum wind
gusts will reach speeds of 60 to 70 mph as opposed to the 90 mph+
that occurred the past two weekends. In addition, the duration
should be shorter with the warning level winds expected from
Saturday evening to Sunday around lunchtime/Noon. Even so, 60 to
70 mph winds are quite strong, so prepare for winds of this
magnitude for this third weekend in a row.

Valdez to Thompson Pass is the other location that is under a High
Wind Warning for this weekend. While the gusty winds have
diminished there somewhat today, this is the reprieve in the high
winds before they increase again Saturday into Sunday.

Another area of interest will be the Copper River Basin for the
potential for a significant drop in temperatures or wind chills
for the early part of next week. For the next two days the ambient
temperature will drop into the 20 to 30 below zero range when the
wind is not blowing and then increase instantly when some wind
mixes out the inversion some. However, the resulting wind chills
will be close to what the ambient temperature was. By Sunday
night, the winds should have diminished as even colder air moves
into the region which may drop temperatures to 40 below which
could even approach 50 below in the colder areas of the Basin for
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

An area of high pressure has remained over the southern Bering Sea
for several days, blocking North Pacific systems approaching the
Alaska Mainland from South of the Aleutians. The prevailing wind
field and low track lift northward along the Kamchatka Peninsula
before crossing eastern Russia before crossing the northern
Bering Sea. The next such system will turn north into Chukchi Sea
Saturday afternoon, with a long trailing front that will reach
Alaska's west coast by Sunday morning. Light snow rates and
totals of less than 2 inches are expected to spread across Nunivak
Island and the western Kuskokwim Delta by Sunday afternoon.
Little to no accumulation is expected east of Kongiganak before
the front shears apart. A cooling trend through Sunday afternoon
is expected.

A second system quickly tracks across the Bering Strait Sunday
night and pushes a gale-force front into western Alaska Monday
morning, with snow reaching as far south as the Alaska Peninsula,
tapering off before reaching Dillingham and Pilot Point. Snow
accumulation of an additional 2 to 3 inches expected along coastal
areas through Tuesday morning. Inland areas along the Kuskokwim
River from Bethel to Kalskag are anticipated to receive up to 1
inch of new snow. Blowing snow could reduce visibilities.

Along the AKPen, gusty northwest gap winds of varying intensity
perpetuate through Monday with likely blowing snow and reduced
visibility. Greater snow totals will be possible across high
terrain.

-ER

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Strong high pressure continues to be situated over the North
Pacific and extend north into the Bering Sea. Influences from weak
low pressure systems may work to keep the Gulf of Alaska
relatively unsettled. There is some potential for high winds
through typical areas, including the Matanuska Valley and the
Valdez area/Thompson Pass into early next workweek with several
waves dropping south across the area. Temperatures remain below
average across Southcentral Alaska, with the coldest area being
the Copper River Basin, where ambient temperatures will hover in
the range of 20 to 40 below zero. Southwest Alaska, however, will
see warmer, somewhat moist air ride up and over the ridge,
bringing increased potential for precipitation. A series of low
pressure systems track up the coast of Far Eastern Russia toward
Western Alaska through mid-week. Precipitation is likely to be
mostly snow, though liquid precipitation is possible along the
coast and is increasingly likely southward along the Alaska
Peninsula. Southcentral Alaska looks to remain mostly dry and
downsloped in northwesterly flow, though chances for some light
snow to make it past the Alaska Range increase for Tuesday night
and Wednesday as low pressure potentially tracks into the Gulf
from Southwest Alaska. By Friday afternoon, troughing continues to
push northward in the Bering and may begin to slowly break the
hold of the strong ridge in place inland.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through
Saturday afternoon. Northerly winds will increase Saturday evening
remaining gusty into Sunday.

&&