Gale Warning 860, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKST Fri Dec 19 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message:
Winds will increase again this weekend, especially through the
Matanuska Valley, Thompson Pass, and Valdez. Gusty conditions
could also make it into North/West Anchorage.

We are now in the third week of this same cold, dry and windy
pattern which is increasing winds every few days as short waves
drive stronger winds aloft toward the surface. This means that for
the third weekend in a row there will be strong winds in the
Matanuska Valley and Valdez where there are high wind watches in
effect for parts of this coming weekend. The good news for the
Matanuska Valley, is that winds do not appear likely to reach the
same magnitude as either of the past two weekends. At this time,
it looks likely that maximum wind gusts will reach speeds of 65 to
75 mph as opposed to the 90 mph+ that occurred the past two
weekends. In addition, the duration should be shorter with the
warning level winds expected from Saturday afternoon to Sunday
afternoon. Even so, 65 to 75 mph winds are quite strong, so
prepare for winds of this magnitude for this third weekend in a
row.

Valdez to Thompson Pass is the other location that is under a High
Wind Watch for this weekend. While winds remain gusty there today,
this is the reprieve in the high winds before they increase again
Saturday into Sunday night.

ANother area of interest will be the Copper River Basin for the
potential for a significant drop in temperatures or wind chills
for the early part of next week. For the next two days the ambient
temperature will drop into the 20 to 30 below zero range when the
wind is not blowing and then increase instantly when some wind
mixes out the inversion some. However, the resulting wind chills
will be close to what the ambient temperature was. By Sunday
night, the winds should have diminished as even colder air moves
into the region which may drop temperatures to 40 below which
could even approach 50 below in the colder areas of the Basin for
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

A seemingly unbreakable upper level ridge continues to dominate
the synoptic picture across the Bering Sea this morning. This
strong area of high pressure is helping divert incoming systems
from the North Pacific away from the region, favoring a prevailing
low track well to the north and west of the region. One of such
lows is moving north along the Kamchatka Peninsula, with a
trailing gale force front extending out into the southwest corner
of the Bering. Areas of stratus and fog are continuing to drift
across portions of the Bering and Aleutians as moisture in the
marine layer steadily builds up under the strong inversion and
warm air aloft anchored under the strong blocking ridge. Across
Southwest, northwest flow continues between the ridge to the west
and a trough centered over Northwest Canada. Areas of low cloud
cover and fog have spread from the Bering into parts of the
Kuskokwim Delta overnight, with some pockets of freezing drizzle
also affecting the area. A shortwave trough riding along the
corridor of strong northwesterlies is pushing into Southwest from
the western Interior, helping light snow to spread south into much
of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Along the AKPen, gusty northwest
gap winds of varying intensity perpetuate.

In terms of the outlook through the weekend, not much change is
expected in terms of the large scale pattern. The front currently
entering the western Bering will move northwest and weaken as it
moves across the northern half of the Bering, bringing some
slightly increased winds and rain/snow showers to the Pribilofs as
it brushes past late Saturday into Sunday morning. The front will
later reach the Kuskokwim Delta Coast Sunday afternoon, likely
bringing in a round of light snow to the Kuskokwim Delta before
the front fully shears apart. Otherwise, expect a steady cooling
trend and continued dry conditions across most of Southwest
through Sunday as Arctic air steadily builds in from the Interior.
Along the AKPen, gusty gap winds will continue through the
weekend as strong northwest flow holds firm in place.

By the end of the weekend, a new shortwave and attendant surface
low will round the crest of the upper ridge, spreading southwest
winds up to gale force range across much of the central and
western Bering through Sunday night. This system will have a
good chance to bring more accumulating snow to western parts of
Southwest as heads into the West Coast early next week.

-AS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Strong high pressure continues to be situated over the North
Pacific and extend north into the Bering Sea. Influences from weak
low pressure systems may work to keep the Gulf of Alaska
relatively unsettled. There continues to be good agreement that a
shortwave trough diving south across Southcentral Alaska this
weekend leads to another period of enhanced winds. As a result,
there is some potential for high winds through typical areas,
including the Matanuska Valley and the Valdez area/Thompson Pass
into early next workweek. Temperatures remain below average
across Southcentral Alaska, with the coldest area being the Copper
River Basin, where ambient temperatures will hover in the range
of 20 to 40 below zero. Southwest Alaska, however, will see
warmer, somewhat moist air ride up and over the ridge, bringing
increased potential for precipitation. A series of low pressure
systems track up the coast of Far Eastern Russia toward Western
Alaska through mid-week. This increases chances for precipitation
in Southwest Alaska Sunday onward. Precipitation is likely to be
mostly snow, though liquid precipitation is possible along the
coast and is increasingly likely southward along the Alaska
Peninsula. Southcentral Alaska looks to remain mostly dry and
downsloped in northwesterly flow, though chances for some light
snow to make it past the Alaska Range increase for Tuesday night
and Wednesday as low pressure potentially tracks into the Gulf
from Southwest Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

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