Gale Warning 841, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Winds increase for most locations, especially in Valdez,
  Seward/Resurrection Bay, as well as the waters around Kodiak
  Island. Northeast winds increase Saturday afternoon through
  Monday across the Matanuska Valley. Confidence is increasing
  that wind gusts approach 60 mph or greater in the Matanuska
  Valley for Sunday night and Monday. Still some uncertainty on
  the duration of how long gusty winds last.

- High Wind Warnings for both Valdez (northeast gusts up to 70
  mph) and Thompson Pass (northeast gusts up to 75 mph) starting
  early Saturday morning into Saturday night. A High Wind Watch
  has been issued for the Matanuska Valley from late tonight
  through Monday morning.

- Gusty northerly winds for Anchorage and along the Cook Inlet
  Coast of the Western Kenai Peninsula up to 40 mph is likely
  through Monday morning. Gusts to 50 mph cannot be ruled out.

- Cold temperatures and wind chills persist through next week. The
  Cold Weather Advisory has been extended through next Fri
  afternoon for the Copper River Basin, the Northern Susitna
  Valley/Broad Pass area, and through the Thompson Pass area.

Preparedness Actions:

- Prepare for the strong winds returning later today and
  persisting through the near future. Be sure to secure anything
  that could blow around by strong winds.

- You can reduce your risk of hypothermia or frost bite by
  protecting your skin from exposure and wearing appropriate
  clothing while outdoors. Keep emergency supplies with you in
  your home and while traveling whenever possible. Consider
  wearing your cold weather gear while you are driving through
  frigid temperatures. Know the signs of hypothermia and check on
  others.

Discussion:

Strong northerly flow returns across Southcentral with a blocking
ridge over the Bering Sea and a trough that is digging across the
AlCan into the Gulf of Alaska this morning. Several locations are
starting to see their winds increase. Later this afternoon
though, gusty winds return to the Matanuska Valley, mostly picking
up in earnest with gusts 40 to 50 mph. The window of strongest
gusts across the Matanuska Valley looks to be Sunday through
Monday morning where northeast winds could gust between 60 to 80
mph at times. For Valdez, winds gusts this morning of 40 to 50 mph
are expected to increase to 60 mph to 70 mph this afternoon.
Higher gusts up to 75 mph are likely across Thompson Pass.

The strong northeast winds coming out of the Matanuska Valley
also look to come to Anchorage and the Western Kenai Peninsula,
similarly to how the previous high wind event unfolded earlier
this week. The highest northerly wind gusts (40 to 50 mph) look to
occur across West Anchorage, and along the Cook Inlet Coast of
the Western Kenai Peninsula from roughly Anchor Point up to
Nikiski through Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures are expected to trend a little colder and remain
cold through next week. Apparent temperatures have the potential
to be just as cold or perhaps even colder with this arctic
airmass. The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for the next
couple weeks continues to favor towards colder than normal for
most of the state. Cold temperatures with the overall synoptic
pattern persisting also favors gap winds. Timing and intensity of
the cold and winds will continue to be the primary forecast
challenge across Southcentral through the next week. Perhaps some
light snow may try and sneak into eastern portions of the Copper
River Basin by Monday with a low spinning in the southern Gulf.
However, confidence in this is very low at this point; especially
with how dry the air has been lately as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Key Messages:

-Colder temperatures expected across Southwest Alaska, with several
days below 0F inland and wind chills of -10 to -30. Near-average
temperatures persist for the southern AK Peninsula through the
Aleutians.

-Strong northerly winds likely from Southwest AK through Bristol Bay
into the AK Peninsula with gale- and storm-force winds across the
waters.

-Little to no precipitation for most of the area through early
 next week.

Discussion:

The key messages and big picture from yesterday's forecast remain
the same this morning. An amplified ridge over the Bering and
trough over the Gulf of Alaska will remain in place through the
weekend into early next week. Persistent northerly flow between
the two features will keep gustier winds in the forecast, mainly
south and east of the Kuskokwim Mountains. Winds will be strongest
from the Kuskokwim Valley down into Bristol Bay, from a line
extending from Lime Village to Koliganek/New Stuyahok to Levelock.
Gusts from 25 to 35 mph are forecast to expand in coverage later
this afternoon across the region with gusts to 40+ mph from
Koliganek, southward to the coast and into Kvichak Bay. The
communities of Naknek and King Salmon will likely be clipped by
some of the stronger winds. Already this morning multiple
locations are observing winds gusting to 30+ mph, including
Koliganek, Naknek, and King Salmon.

With colder temperatures already in place, ranging from the
single digits to upper teens, wind chills will begin to drop below
zero degrees Fahrenheit. Sunday into Monday many locations will
likely see wind chills approaching -30 degrees.

Precipitation chances will remain low for most areas the next few
days. Though models are showing better agreement in a trough
digging southward through the Eastern Aleutians next week on
Monday. Cold air advection and the passage of the trough will
result in elevated winds somewhere from Dutch Harbor through
Unimak Pass, with increasing snow showers.

BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A strong area of high pressure centered over the southern Bering
Sea sinks south of the Aleutian Islands into the North Pacific by
Wednesday. In the Gulf of Alaska, a potentially broad and complex
low drifts east toward Southeast Alaska and weakens gradually
through the week. The resulting pressure gradient drives gale to
storm force winds out of gaps from the eastern Aleutians, through
the Alaska Peninsula, to much of the Gulf as far east as the
Copper River Delta through mid-week. These winds will be aided by
continued cold advection across Alaska, with the coldest
temperatures in the Copper River Basin, where they will range
from 20 to 40 degrees below zero. A series of shortwave troughs
aloft dropping south from the Arctic could lead to periods of
enhanced gap winds and reinforce the colder temperatures. One of
the stronger features models are currently hinting at indicate
potential for a closed upper low to drop across the southern
Alaska mainland on Tuesday or Wednesday, hinting at higher
potential for another round of increased winds in that time frame.
The forecast area remains dry overall. The one exception looks to
be on Friday, as some moisture lifts across the western and
northern Bering Sea with weak low pressure moving over top of the
ridge, which could bring some light snow to portions of Southwest
Alaska.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Northerly winds will continue increasing through this
morning, with gusts to 40 knots expected at the terminal by this
afternoon. Northerly winds look to remain elevated through Sunday.

&&

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