Gale Warning 838, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKST Fri Dec 12 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday evening)...

Key Messages:

- Winds increase again tonight for most locations, especially in
  Valdez, Seward/Resurrection Bay, as well as the waters around
  Kodiak Island. Northeast winds increase Saturday afternoon
  through Monday across the Matanuska Valley. Confidence is
  increasing that wind gusts approach 60 mph or greater in the
  Matanuska Valley for Sunday night and Monday. Still some
  uncertainty on the duration of how long gusty winds last.

- High Wind Watches were upgraded to Warnings for both Valdez
  (northeast gusts up to 70 mph) and Thompson Pass (northeast
  gusts up to 75 mph) starting early Saturday morning into
  Saturday night. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the
  Matanuska Valley from late Saturday night through Monday
  morning.

- Gusty northerly winds for Anchorage and along the Cook Inlet
  Coast of the Western Kenai Peninsula Saturday through Monday
  morning.

- Cold temperatures and wind chills persist through next week,
  despite a slight warm up for today. The Cold Weather Advisory
  has been extended through next Fri afternoon for the Copper
  River Basin and through the Thompson Pass area. A Cold Weather
  Advisory has been added to the Northern Susitna Valley/Broad
  Pass area to bring awareness to cold wind chills associated with
  gusty northerly winds coming out of Broad Pass.

Preparedness Actions:

- Prepare for the strong winds returning later today and
  persisting through the near future. Be sure to secure anything
  that could blow around by strong winds.

- You can reduce your risk of hypothermia or frost bite by
  protecting your skin from exposure and wearing appropriate
  clothing while outdoors. Keep emergency supplies with you in
  your home and while traveling whenever possible. Consider
  wearing your cold weather gear while you are driving through
  frigid temperatures. Know the signs of hypothermia and check on
  others.

Discussion:

The strong Arctic trough is driving southeastward across
SouthCentral currently with the leading upper-level
shortwave poised to enter the Gulf this evening. The first effect
of this trough is gusty winds in Whittier and Seward, reaching
over 40 mph through Saturday. As a matter of fact, gusts in the
Whittier area have already been observed near 50 mph this
afternoon.

Next, gusty winds return to the Matanuska Valley, mostly picking
up in earnest Saturday afternoon and evening with gusts up to 50
mph, and Valdez, picking up beginning overnight tonight with gusts
60 mph to 70 mph. Higher gusts up to 75 mph are likely across
Thompson Pass. The window of strongest gusts across the Matanuska
Valley looks to be Sunday through Monday morning where northeast
winds could gust between 60 to 80 mph at times.

The strong northeast winds coming out of the Matanuska Valley
also look to come to Anchorage and the Western Kenai Peninsula,
similarly to how the previous high wind event unfolded earlier
this week. The highest northerly wind gusts (40 to 50 mph) look to
occur across West Anchorage, and along the Cook Inlet Coast of
the Western Kenai Peninsula from roughly Anchor Point up to
Nikiski Saturday through Sunday afternoon. Aside from the winds,
snow showers moved across the Copper River Basin earlier today in
association with the trough digging through the area and are
currently moving through Cordova. Snow looks to end in the next
hour or two as precipitation moves fully off shore.

Another round of cold air also arrives on Saturday with this
trough. Apparent temperatures have the potential to be just as
cold or perhaps even colder with this arctic airmass. The Climate
Prediction Center's outlook for the next couple weeks continues to
favor towards colder than normal for most of the state. Cold
temperatures with the overall synoptic pattern persisting also
favors gap winds. Timing and intensity of the cold and winds will
continue to be the primary forecast challenge across Southcentral
through the next week. Perhaps some light snow may try and sneak
into eastern portions of the Copper River Basin by Monday with a
low spinning in the southern Gulf. However, confidence in this is
very low at this point; especially with how dry the air has been
lately as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)...

Key Messages:

-Colder temperatures expected across Southwest Alaska, with several
days below 0F inland and wind chills of -10 to -30. Near-average
temperatures persist for the southern AK Peninsula through the
Aleutians.

-Strong northerly winds likely from Southwest AK through Bristol Bay
into the AK Peninsula with gale- and storm-force winds across the
waters.

-Little to no precipitation for most of the area through early next
week.

Cold, dry weather is expected to prevail for Southwest Alaska, with
a transition to near-normal temperatures farther west- mainly across
the Aleutians. The pattern over the next several days will continue
to be dominated by two primary features: 1) Large, amplifying ridge
across the Bering Sea and 2) troughing across eastern Alaska and
Yukon. These features locked in place will leave little in the way
of day-to-day variation as far as wind/sky/precip is concerned.

GOES water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough digging
across Alaska, with the southwest periphery dropping through
Southwest Alaska. Observations across the Upper Kusko show some
light snow with this precipitation. Otherwise the main change about
the sensible weather with this trough passage is the brief warm up
followed by renewed cold air advection behind the associated front.
Highs across the interior Southwest AK will primarily be in the
single digits on Saturday, with temperatures dropping below 0 after
that and remaining that way for a few days. Coupled with breezy
conditions, wind chill values will generally range from -10 to -30
for much of the SWAK from this weekend through early next week.

The pressure gradient between the Bering ridge and the troughing off
the to the east will be rather impressive throughout much of the
timeframe, resulting in strong northerly flow from Southwest Alaska
through Bristol Bay into the AK Peninsula and out into the Pacific.
Widespread sustained gale-force winds can be expected for many of
these locations across the water, with storm-force gusts and perhaps
even sustained storm-force winds out of some of the AK Peninsula
terrain gaps.

As far as precipitation is concerned, there is little in the way of
precip in the forecast across the entire domain over the next few
days with the ridge in place. Aside from today's upper Kusko snow,
the main threat for precip will come first from a weak trough
dropping across the Bering into the eastern Aleutians Saturday
night. The next comes Monday into Tuesday as the aforementioned
ridge begins to retreat southward, with a shortwave trough digging
across the top of it. There remains some model uncertainty with
regard to placement, but the best chances will be for the Pribilofs
and then the Aleutians as it quickly drops south. At this time, no
amounts look to be significant.

-Brown

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A strong area of high pressure centered over the southern Bering
Sea sinks south of the Aleutian Islands into the North Pacific by
Wednesday. In the Gulf of Alaska, a potentially broad and complex
low drifts east toward Southeast Alaska and weakens gradually
through the week. The resulting pressure gradient drives gale to
storm force winds out of gaps from the eastern Aleutians, through
the Alaska Peninsula, to much of the Gulf as far east as the
Copper River Delta through mid-week. These winds will be aided by
continued cold advection across Alaska, with the coldest
temperatures in the Copper River Basin, where they will range
from 20 to 40 degrees below zero. A series of shortwave troughs
aloft dropping south from the Arctic could lead to periods of
enhanced gap winds and reinforce the colder temperatures. One of
the stronger features models are currently hinting at indicate
potential for a closed upper low to drop across the southern
Alaska mainland on Tuesday or Wednesday, hinting at higher
potential for another round of increased winds in that time frame.
The forecast area remains dry overall. The one exception looks to
be on Friday, as some moisture lifts across the western and
northern Bering Sea with weak low pressure moving over top of the
ridge, which could bring some light snow to portions of Southwest
Alaska.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds and VFR conditions persist through
this afternoon. Northerly winds will begin increasing this
evening and continue into Saturday. Wind gusts 30 to 40 knots are
expected at the terminal by Saturday afternoon.

&&