Gale Warning 696, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
409 PM AKST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

A trough over Southcentral lending toward the showery pattern
across the region will continue to promote the unsettled weather
through tonight into Wednesday. Cold temperatures overnight
tonight will dip again, continuing the cooling trend for
Southcentral.

By Wednesday morning, a new low pressure system will enter the
northern Gulf of Alaska, becoming the dominant feature over the
area guiding the shift to a more active weather pattern. With low
pressure building over the Gulf and cold air building over the
interior of Southcentral, gusty northerly winds draining out of
the gaps such as Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and Valdez Arm
are expected to build Wednesday morning. Gusty winds through
Thompson Pass are also expected to similarly build, and given any
transportable snow on or near the roadways, may also lead to
periods of blowing snow through the pass at times of peak wind
gusts. Significant/continued reductions in visibility is not
expected, however periods are possible Wednesday morning through
Thursday morning. Wednesday night, precipitation is expected to
build across Prince William Sound, and eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Areas of the Copper River Basin may also see period of light
snowfall through Wednesday afternoon as far north as Glennallen.

By Thursday morning, snowfall will quickly build across the
eastern Kenai, pushing across the mountains and creating snowfall
near Portage, Turnagain Arm, and Turnagain Pass. Turnagain Pass
will see the quickest rise in snowfall rates, with accumulations
expected along the road system through Thursday. A Special Weather
Statement has been issued for this, please see that product for
more information. Later Thursday morning, the low will push
further north and west, allowing precipitation to persist closer
to the Anchorage Peninsula, with snowfall expected to begin for
the Hillside, with extensions into south and eastern Anchorage
possible, in the later morning. Snow is expected to continue for
these areas of the city through Thursday afternoon, as the low
shifts back into the western Gulf, retreating the snowfall back up
Turnagain Arm. Snowfall is possible to continue for the Turnagain
Pass area through Friday morning.

-CL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

Low stratus and reduced visibilities continue to fester along the
Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Delta Coast, particularly in
Kipnuk. The main culprit for the low stratus is weak/stale flow
between broad ridge in the eastern Bering Sea and a trough axis
stretching across interior Southwest Alaska. While conditions look
to remain the same for the rest of today and tonight, flow picks
up out of the northeast Wednesday morning which should help things
to mix a little more which should help cloud ceilings lift and
visibilities to increase.

The upper low anchoring the trough across interior southwest will
move southward Wednesday evening through Thursday and will bring
snow showers across Nunivak Island, the Interior Kuskokwim Delta,
as well as the western Kuskokwim Valley beginning Wednesday
afternoon. The best chance for snow with this system will along
the Kuskokwim Mountains northward to Aniak. Bethel also looks to
see some very light snow late Wednesday afternoon to evening, but
it will not add up to much. Upslope snow showers continue across
the Kuskokwim Mountains and the Bering Sea side of the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN) through Thursday night. As the shortwave drives
southward across the AKPEN Thursday, gusty northwest winds will
pick up through the favored terrain, gaps, and passes of the AKPEN
and spill into the North Pacific Thursday through Friday morning
before pressure gradients relax and upper-level energy weakens.
The upper energy responsible for the AKPEN wind enhancement will
also interact with shortwaves rotating around a low in the Gulf of
Alaska Thursday evening through Friday with an area of
deformation forming along interior Southwest. The best chance for
a light snow accumulation will be from Iliamna northward to
Sparrevohn and along the Western Alaska Range. Any snow from this
area of deformation tapers off Saturday morning.

Shifting farther out west, the Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea will
remain active through Friday evening. Currently, a gale-force low
is bringing gusty northwest winds to the Western and Central
Aleutians while southeast winds pick up across the Eastern
Aleutians. While Unalaska started off with some snow earlier,
warmer air aloft has moved in and temperatures remain warm at the
surface in the upper 30s which has since changed precipitation
over to rain. Rain continues the Central and Eastern Aleutians
through Wednesday morning before precipitation tapers off
Wednesday afternoon. Cold air also moves back in across the
Eastern Aleutians beginning Wednesday afternoon as a ridge builds
across the central Bering. Any showers that move off the Bering in
the northerly flow ahead of this ridge could allow snow to mix in
with rain across the Eastern Aleutians Wednesday evening and
night. Behind the ridge, a weak front from a Kamchatka low moves
to the western Bering and Western Aleutians Wednesday night and
Thursday bringing another round of rain. This weak system, along
with its light rain, moves to the Central Aleutians by Thursday
afternoon and to the Eastern Aleutians and Pribilof Islands by
Thursday night and Friday morning. This system weakens and shears
apart before it can it to the mainland coast of the southern
AKPEN.

Of more concern will be a strong low pressure system poised to
lift from the North Pacific to the southwestern Bering Sea
between the Western Aleutians and Southern Kamchatka by Friday
evening. This system is trending to be quite a strong and deep
system with some guidance suggesting the storm could be in the
930s mb by Friday evening. Storm-force winds and hurricane force
gusts are in the forecast for the Western Aleutians and western
Bering Sea late Friday morning through Friday evening. There is
the possibility of a little corridor of sustained hurricane-force
winds Friday afternoon along the coastal marine zones of the
Western Aleutians. The progression of this storm will have to be
watched very closely as its front moves across the Bering Sean and
eventually to the mainland coast by late this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Several strong storms will move across the Bering Sea from this
weekend through early next week. Of note is that models are in
much, much better agreement than is typical for this timeframe,
which suggests higher than usual forecast confidence with these
storms.

As mentioned in previous forecast discussions, the first storm
will be a low pressure system sweeping across the Bering
Sea/Aleutian Islands and into Southwest Alaska through at least
Monday. Models are honing in on a very strong low, with
deterministic models showing central pressure below 950 mb (and
as low as about 935 mb if the deterministic Canadian and GFS
models are to be believed). The primary hazard to watch for will
be hurricane-force gusts across the Western Aleutians/Bering.
Though the front will weaken as the low occludes, it may still be
strong enough to increase coastal water levels along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast Sunday morning. For most other areas, expect
widespread gales and moderate to heavy precipitation at times.

Forecast confidence declines from Sunday into Monday regarding the
position of both the occluding low and a triple point low that
forms along the front in the North Pacific. Regardless, expect
localized gales around both lows.

By Monday night, another strong low pushes its front across the
Bering Sea. Confidence is high that this will be gale force front,
with the potential for sustained storm force winds. This second
low won't be as strong as the first low arriving late this week,
but it will be slower to occlude. As such, the front may be
comparable in strength to the first low's front.

-Chen

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected throughout the
TAF period. Light snow showers may pass through the terminal this
evening. VFR is expected to prevail through any snow shower, but
a temporary drop to MVFR will be possible.

&&