Gale Warning 69, NWS Anchorage, AK

526 
FZAK51 PAFC 182355
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-191230-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the southwest Gulf of Alaska lifts to the north Gulf 
coast by Sun morning. A 1007 mb low forms along the front 47 nm 
south of Homer by Sun afternoon, then moves to 40 nm west of 
Whittier at 1006 mb by Mon morning. The front then pushes inland 
over Southcentral Alaska by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ710-191230-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ711-191230-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ712-191230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 22 ft subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ715-191230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ716-191230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ714-191230-
Resurrection Bay-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ724-191230-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-191230-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ726-191230-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-191230-
Port of Valdez-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Snow and rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Rain and snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-191230-
Valdez Narrows-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-191230-
Valdez Arm-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ723-191230-
Passage Canal-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-191230-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ731-191230-
Barren Islands East-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ733-191230-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ732-191230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ734-191230-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ736-191230-
Chiniak Bay-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ737-191230-
Marmot Bay-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ738-191230-
Shelikof Strait-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ742-191230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ740-191230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 1 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ741-191230-
Kachemak Bay-
255 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The primary weather focus through the short term remains the slow
progression of the frontal system and a series of shortwave
troughs and the evolution of a potential low development along
this boundary. Model guidance has trended toward slower
progression of the front into Southcentral Alaska, with broad
support for a developing low near Prince William Sound (PWS) or
eastern Kenai Peninsula Sunday into Monday. This slower evolution
increases confidence in prolonged precipitation along the coastal
areas but introduces significant uncertainty in the timing,
intensity, and inland penetration of precipitation and associated
impacts.

Strong easterly to southeasterly winds this afternoon,
particularly along the Anchorage Hillside and Turnagain Arm, are
expected to persist as a coastal ridge remains along the coast.
While the HRRR (and previously the NAM nest) depicts stronger
winds reaching lower further into Anchorage, other guidance (GFS,
NAM) suggests the pressure gradient will reorient down Cook Inlet
as the low forms. Coastal areas, including Seward and Whittier,
will see steady precipitation as the front lingers offshore.
Precipitation rates will likely increase through Sunday as the low
deepens. Inland areas will remain marginally cold enough for
snow, particularly in locations like Portage through Turnagain
Pass, where low-level thicknesses and temperatures support snow
through the event’s early stages. Portage could see several inches
of snow by Sunday evening, though warm air advection will
gradually erode the cold air, introducing the potential for
rain/snow mix or a changeover to rain. However, downslope effects
along the coastal mountains will continue to limit inland
precipitation, with areas like Anchorage and the Mat Valley
remaining largely dry through much of Saturday. Winds will also
strengthen to near storm-force in the northern Gulf as the front
progresses northward by Sunday morning.

As the trough becomes negatively tilted and the low develops,
precipitation will begin to overspread inland areas late Sunday
into Monday in the Mat-Su Valley, and potentially into the
Anchorage Bowl as well. However, timing discrepancies remain
notable among model guidance. For Anchorage, snowfall remains
uncertain as surface temperatures hover near freezing. Minor snow
accumulations are possible late Sunday into Monday. Marginal
temperatures could lead to variability depending on the timing and
intensity of the precipitation. Valdez will see snow early on
Sunday but will warm with increasing south to southeasterly flow,
with significant snowfall expected for Thompson Pass into Monday.

Overall, the exact timing and strength of the developing low in
the Gulf remain variable across models. The extent of inland
precipitation is tied to how quickly the trough progresses and the
intensity of the cross-barrier flow.

Eovino

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Friday to Sunday)...

A trough traversing northward across the Eastern Aleutians this
afternoon will continue the gusty southerly winds present in
Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) bays and passes through tonight.
Locations such Cold Bay and False Pass could see gusts up to 60
mph tonight before a gradual decline through tomorrow. As the low
pressure system moves north, the Southwest coast will see enhanced
southeasterly flow, prompting a Coastal Flood Advisory for the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast through tomorrow afternoon. The highest
threat is especially for the communities of Kwigillingok and
Kongiganak, where the timing of the strongest onshore winds
coincide with high tide.

Moderate to heavy precipitation is likely for the higher
elevations of the AKPEN and Wood River mountains while lighter
more showery precip is possible for much of the rest of Southwest.
Another low crossing the AKPEN tomorrow night will help a
resurgence of weather for the Bristol Bay region.

On Sunday morning a North Pacific low will send its front across
the Western Aleutians. There is some model disagreement about
exact track, but it is looking like multiple shortwaves will
rotate around the low center, bringing enhanced winds and
precipitation to the Aleutian chain as it moves east, making it to
the southern end of the AKPEN sometime Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The high amplitude weather pattern over Alaska for the past few
days will become more energetic as a number of upper level
shortwaves rotate across the region through the forecast period.
Stormy weather continues through Friday across the Southern
portions of Alaska. An elongated Bering trough reorients across
Mainland Alaska, briefly eroding the the downstream ridge before
continuing into Canada. Additional energy from transient North
Pacific low add to the movement. The ridge reestablishes itself
over the Interior as another trough deepens across the Bering for
Thursday, but back-to-back lows continue through the windflow. The
ECMWF and the EC mean solutions are preferred to cover both
synoptic features and the uncertainty with the finer details.

Some lingering areas of rain occur across the Southcentral coasts
with gusty winds over the Gulf of Alaska. The next low brings
locally moderate rains or rain and snow mixed and gusty winds from
the Central Aleutians to Kodiak Island and Kamishak Bay into
Southwest Alaska Tuesday. Locally heavy rain or rain and snow
mixed spreads Eastward along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula into
Prince William Sound Wednesday, and continuing to the Canadian
Border through Thursday before diminishing. In the West, a well
developed low and front bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the
Western Aleutians Tuesday. This system marches over the Aleutians
and Bering, spreading into Southwest Alaska, Northern AKPEN and
Kodiak Island for Friday

&&.AVIATION...

PANC...Light north to northwesterly winds at the surface with
southeasterly winds of 30-40 kt at or above 1500 ft will
contribute to continued low-level wind shear through Saturday.
Ceilings remain VFR with only a low chance for ceilings to lower
below 5000 ft at times.

&&