Gale Warning 678, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 AM AKDT Thu Oct 30 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The powerful low that was in the Gulf yesterday has moved into the inland
Bristol bay region early this morning. The still warm sea surface
temperatures combined with very cold air aloft has brought some
impressive lapse rates and the resulting instability has kept
areas of thunderstorms around all night for the north Gulf coast
and into southern Prince William Sound. These thunderstorms are
expected to end this morning as the cold low center and associated
upper level wave moves over the colder landmass. This will bring
in a very brief break as the next strong low approaches the Gulf.
At first glance at the satellite, the prominent low in the
strongly occluded one near 48N 155W this morning. However, the low
that will bring the storm force winds to the Gulf by this
afternoon is east of this low and rapidly developing and
strengthening as it moves quickly northward. While the prominent
low on satellite will trail it into the Gulf, the one developing
to the east will be the main and stronger low by this afternoon.
Upper level temperatures with this new low will not be nearly as
cold as the current low so there is much lower potential for
thunderstorms after this morning for the area.

Winds will ramp up again this afternoon across the region,
especially along the Gulf coast and down Cook Inlet as the new
lows move into the Gulf and then remain there into the weekend.
This will keep warm, southeast flow aloft moving into the eastern
Kenai with persistent rain and rain showers at lower elevations.
While there was a considerable amount of snow that fell in
turnagain Pass yesterday, the precipitation type is expected to
be mostly rain into the weekend there. Thompson Pass has a better
chance to remain snow, though it is possible for some rain to mix
in at times with the warmer temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 2: Today through Friday)...

A strong low, previously to the southwest of Kodiak Island, has
since lifted northward into Southwest Alaska this morning. Its
associated surface low sits between King Salmon and New Stuyahok.
This feature will gradually dissipate while tracking northwestward
along the coast through this afternoon. At the same time, one or
two upper level waves are progged to slide over the Kuskokwim
Delta from east-to-west over the course of the day, with
additional disturbances during the overnight hours into Friday.
While no wave in particular looks overly strong, the mere presence
of each passing wave will maintain a chance for light snow
showers across much of Southwest Alaska on Thursday, Thursday
night, and Friday.

Winds across Southwest Alaska continue to gust this morning over
much of the region, but will gradually taper off as the
aforementioned surface low also steadily weakens. Temperatures for
the most part are warmer than on Wednesday, a combination of
increasing moisture and the track of the upper low from south to
north. A brief period of decreased sky cover may develop during
the late morning hours on Thursday, but the expectation is for
ceilings to steadily lower later this afternoon into the overnight
hours as a new North Pacific low wraps into the Gulf and a trough
moves over the Western Alaska Range through Friday.

Offshore of the coast, a large area of small craft winds and
gales will persist from between Nunivak Island and Saint Matthew
Island down through Unimak Pass on Thursday. The axis of these
winds will expand in width substantially later this evening with
gusts to 50 knots possible east of the Pribilof Islands down
through Unimak Pass. Strong gusts will be felt as far west as
Dutch Harbor, and as far east as Cold Bay and King Cove by early
Friday morning. The low over the Gulf of Alaska remains mostly
stationary into the weekend. Thus, strong northerly flow over the
eastern Bering will also persist with continued gales over open
waters, and gap winds through the Alaska Peninsula.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The Long Term forecast looks to be less active compared to this
week, particularly in Southcentral. A gale force low looks to
enter the Bering on Sunday, bringing gusty wind and precipitation
to the Western and Central Aleutians. This low will quickly move
out to the North Pacific without causing much trouble. Tuesday
seems relatively quiet for both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska.
Trouble brews on Tuesday as a potentially strong low moves into
the Bering from the west. However, its strength is highly
uncertain with some guidance showing storm force winds for the
Western and Central Aleutians, while others show winds only
reaching small craft in strength. The situation will be clarified
in the coming days. Moderate to heavy precipitation should
accompany this low as well. Wednesday, depending on the solution,
has the low moving southeast, allowing for conditions to improve.
Meanwhile, Southcentral Alaska is relatively uneventful with weak
waves bringing precipitation and breezy winds mostly to the
coastal regions throughout the week.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Winds will be likely remain challenging today with
northeasterly surface winds with wind shear above them for the
early morning that give way to gusty Turnagain Arm winds sometime
this morning. The timing of the transition is uncertain, but once
the southeasterly winds kick in they should remain until
approximately late afternoon when they will shift to the north
again. In addition to the wind shear there will be rain showers
around this morning. While the rain shower activity should lessen
as the day progresses, another bout is expected this evening.
Precipitation type at the airport will remain all rain for today
into Friday. Even with the showers, VFR conditions are expected to
persist into Friday, though there could be some periods of
ceilings below 5000 ft.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1146 AM AKDT Thu Oct 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Rain             1 NW Anchorage (Glen Al 61.10N 149.72W
10/29/2025  E0.10 Inch       Anchorage          AK   Public

            Icy road surfaces from rain freezing
            overnight.

&&

TK