Gale Warning 64, NWS Anchorage, AK

637 
FZAK61 PAFC 170004
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
304 PM AKST THU JAN 16 2025

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-171345-
304 PM AKST THU JAN 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A CENTRAL GULF RIDGE EXISTS IN THE SE GULF FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE W GULF BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-171345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
304 PM AKST THU JAN 16 2025

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-171345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
304 PM AKST THU JAN 16 2025

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

372 
FZAK61 PAFC 171218
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 AM AKST Fri Jan 17 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-180130-
318 AM AKST Fri Jan 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front in the southwestern Gulf of Alaska pushes to the north Gulf 
coast by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ351-180130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
318 AM AKST Fri Jan 17 2025

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-180130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
318 AM AKST Fri Jan 17 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

417 
FZAK61 PAFC 180016
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
316 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-181430-
316 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front over the Gulf through Sun afternoon. A 1005 mb low forms 
on the front at 59N 146W for Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-181430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
316 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2025

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-181430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
316 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2025

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

374 
FZAK61 PAFC 181255
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-190145-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front in the southwestern Gulf of Alaska lifts to the north Gulf
coast by Sun morning. A 1006 mb low forms on the front at 59N 
149W for Sun afternoon, pushes inland over Southcentral Alaska, 
and dissipates by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ351-190145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-190145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

375 
FZAK61 PAFC 182350
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
250 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-191430-
250 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front in the southwest Gulf of Alaska lifts to the north Gulf 
coast by Sun morning. A 1007 mb low forms along the front at 59N 
152W by Sun afternoon, moving to 61N 127W at 1006 mb by Mon 
morning. The front then pushes inland over Southcentral Alaska by 
Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-191430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
250 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-191430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
250 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

694 
FZAK61 PAFC 191232
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 AM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-200145-
332 AM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1007 mb low forms along the front at 59N 152W by Sun 
afternoon,and moves to 61N 127W Mon evening then dissipates. A 
front then pushes across the northern Gulf through Tue evening. 

$$

PKZ351-200145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
332 AM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-200145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
332 AM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 PM AKST Wed Jan 15 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An elongated upper level trough and associated surface low
continue to weaken over the western Kenai Peninsula, with a
lingering band of light to locally moderate snow near Nikiski
through Kenai and Soldotna this afternoon. Precipitation will
quickly diminish through this evening. Gusty northerly gap winds
peaking around or shortly after midnight, before diminishing
through the day on Thursday.

An upper level ridge begins to build over Southcentral from the
southwest by Thursday morning. This should bring clearing skies
for tonight and Thursday for inland areas. However, this ridge
will amplify as it moves to the AlCan border on Friday which will
bring in southerly flow aloft and warming temperatures for Friday
and into the weekend. Light precipitation will begin to overspread
Kodiak Island early Friday morning and the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and western Prince William sound by late Friday
afternoon. At least initially on Friday, the antecedent cold air
mass will lead to light snow for the coastal mountains before
heavier precipitation moves in with warmer, southerly flow late
into the weekend. Snow levels are expected to raise to near 1000
ft by Friday afternoon, reaching as high as 1500 ft this weekend.
Inland areas, including Anchorage, should remained downsloped and
dry through at least Saturday.

A North Pacific low moves into the Gulf for Saturday night into
Sunday bringing another round of relatively heavier precipitation
and elevated winds to the coast.

-ME

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...

Generally stormy weather persists as two lows and their front
move across the region from now through the weekend. Two new
advisories are in effect for Kuskokwim Delta:
* Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow for Nunivak Island and
  most of Kuskokwim Delta, from Thursday afternoon through Friday
  morning
* Coastal Flood Advisory for Kwigillingok and Kongiganak, from
  Thursday night through Saturday afternoon

A broad low moving from the North Pacific into the Bering Sea will
push its front east and north across the Bering Sea and into
Southwest Alaska. Expect gales along the front, with gusts as high
as 40-50 mph, and light to moderate precipitation. There is some
uncertainty with how quickly temperatures will warm above
freezing and, therefore, how much precipitation will fall as snow.
Generally, snow amounts will top out at around 4 inches, with
greater snow amounts along Kuskokwim Delta, where colder
temperatures are expected to hold out for longer. This is also
where the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect, as gusty winds and
falling snow could lead to significant visibility reductions
before warmer air turns precipitation into rain/snow mix or all
rain by Friday morning. There is a chance for parts of Bristol
Bay, especially from Togiak/Twin Hills to the Western Capes, to
see visibility reductions and blowing snow with this storm, but
confidence is lower.

Aside from the Winter Weather Advisory, a Coastal Flood Advisory
is also in effect for parts of Kuskokwim Delta, specifically
Kwigillingok and Kongiganak. Onshore, southeasterly flow, similar
to past flood events, could bring a return of floodwaters. The
minor upside is that the moon is beginning to wane, so tides
shouldn't be as high as they were for the flood events earlier
this week. Still, all this warmer air will likely lead to melting
sea ice, which may leave the coastline more exposed. The Coastal
Flood Advisory encompasses both the first storm (Thursday evening
through Friday morning) as well as a second storm that looks to
arrive some time between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon.
This second storm has a lot more timing uncertainty associated
with it. Models generally agree with the strength and general
track of the feature (~975 mb low with gale force winds), but the
timing varies as much as 6-12 hours. Generally, this forecast
package leaned towards a faster solution with stronger winds. If
the alternate scenarios play out, we could see the timing of
strong winds and any coastal flooding delayed by 6-12 hours, or
weaker wind speeds and less severe coastal flooding. Overall, stay
tuned as we continue to assess these differences and refine the
forecast.

-Chen

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

On the Alaska Weather map, an elongated upper level trough
extends from Siberia across the Bering and Aleutians. Several
moderately strong shortwaves out of Russia and the North Pacific
rotate through the active high amplitude pattern, and flattens the
downstream ridge over Interior Alaska on Monday. The shortwave
effects from the North Pacific forms closed lows over the
Aleutians through Tuesday. The ridge regains its footing from
Southeast Alaska across the Mainland by midweek. Even with all the
flexing of the windflow pattern, significant surface weather
features affect the Southcentral and Alaska Peninsula in sustained
onshore flow through most of the forecast period.

The weekend closes out with areas of rain mixed with snow or snow
leading across Southwest Alaska through Monday. A decaying
surface low spreading locally heavy rains over parts of Kodiak
Island, Kamishak Bay and the Kenai Peninsula. These heavy rains
diminish as the low progresses Northeastward over Prince William
Sound late Monday. Right on its heels, a series of weak North
Pacific lows and fronts marches across the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula Tuesday. Gusty winds push over the Western Aleutians
through Monday, while gale force winds approach the AKPEN coasts
and Kodiak Island Tuesday. Gale force winds develop ahead of
another front approaching the Western Aleutians late Tuesday into
Wednesday. A third low follows suit with widespread rain and gusty
winds from the Eastern Aleutians to Prince William Sound through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Cloud cover is
likely to stick around through tomorrow. Some lower clouds may
move in late tonight but conditions should stay VFR. Winds switch
around to south-southeasterly tonight and will shift back to
northerly by Thursday morning.

&&