Gale Warning 561, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 AM AKDT Sat Sep 27 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

A high amplitude pattern remains in place across Alaska, with a
ridge extending from the north Pacific to the western Bering Sea
and a trough across the remainder of the state. Within the upper
trough, a surface low is developing this morning near Akhiok,
south of Kodiak Island, and moving southeastward toward the
western Gulf. Strong, gusty winds from the northwest direction
continue through bays and terrain gaps across the western Gulf and
near Kodiak Island this morning. While these winds will trend
down gradually throughout the day today, gale force winds will
continue on the back side of the surface low as it continues to
track across the Gulf.

As another surface low in the northern Gulf weakens, waves of
showers will continue to lift northward along the coast then
rotate westward with rain spilling over the Chugach Range into
Anchorage and the western Kenai Peninsula. Chances for these
showers decrease for this afternoon, but another wave is expected
to press farther inland later tonight into Sunday morning, but at
this time it is most likely expected along higher elevations.

As we look toward Sunday and into the week ahead, the general
weather trend is appearing more dry and cooler. With a cooler air
mass settling in, there is an increased chance for freezing
temperatures and for the potential for frost to affect any
vegetation and outdoor plants. This will be heavily dependent on
cloud cover, as a period of clear skies will be necessary for
temperatures to reach freezing. The forecast package this morning
is continuing to point toward Monday morning for the highest
likelihood that temperatures will be the coolest (and Tuesday
morning for the Copper River Basin). The low temperature in many
locations across Southcentral range from the upper 20s to mid 30s,
with the exception being along the Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island
where lows will likely be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Concerns
for lows to be cool enough for frost cannot be ruled out for
Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, an upper trough with its associated surface low has
passed through the Alaska Peninsula. This feature is responsible
for the continued gusty winds in the Eastern Aleutians and the
Alaska Peninsula. Now that the feature has passed, winds speeds
will slowly start to diminish. Cold air advection and a strong
mid level jet will slow the diminishing of winds, so gale force
winds (higher through gaps) will linger through Saturday
afternoon over the Alaska Peninsula. Precipitation on the other
hand, will more quickly dissipate as drier air from the north
moves in. Meanwhile, a ridge is currently over the central
Aleutians which is allowing for lower precipitation chances and
lower wind speeds. There is, however, some lower stratus and fog
with this ridge due to the warmer air accompanying it. Finally,
over the western Aleutians is a front from a low in the
western/central Bering. This front is bringing small craft winds
and a wall of precipitation to the western Aleutians. The front
and ridge will slide eastward over the course of the day. For the
southwest mainland, low temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s
are expected due to the tongue of cold air over it. Skies in the
mainland will gradually clear as the low exits the region. Due to
the clearer skies, Saturday night will see temperatures drop to
the low to mid 20s across the mainland.

Saturday night/Sunday morning brings calmer and clearer
conditions to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as the
ridge moves over. This will be short lived for Eastern Aleutians
as the aforementioned front moves in late Sunday morning. A long
north-south swath of precipitation will stretch from Unalaska,
through the Pribilof Islands and beyond by late Sunday morning.
Near gale force southeasterly winds will also impact the same
areas. However, the front will stall out and then dissipate by
Sunday afternoon before ever making it to the mainland. A quick
and compact low or duo of lows will slide down where the front
dissipates and will bring another quick round of precipitation
and small craft winds to first the Pribilofs and then the Eastern
Aleutians Sunday afternoon/evening. The Mainland will see another
cold night on Sunday with temperatures dropping to the mid 20s as
clearer skies remain in place due to the influence of the ridge.
Monday will see another ridge build into the Bering. This ridge
will be larger and will lead to calmer and clearer weather for the
whole Aleutian chain and will keep the mainland inactive as well
on Monday.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Thursday)...

Broad troughing over the Bering weak high pressure over the Gulf
of Alaska and interior portions of the state will start off the
long term forecast period. Generally, high pressure is expected to
persist over the Gulf of Alaska through Wednesday night of next
week, leading to drier conditions across Southcentral. Moving with
the broader Bering trough will be a pair of shortwaves, one to
the north of the Aleutian Chain and one to the south. Forecast
models have the northern wave lifting through the Bering Strait by
the middle of next week, with the southern wave amplifying into
the southern Bering. Unsettled weather with increased
precipitation chances are forecast for the YK Delta and Kuskokwim
Delta as the region is clipped by both systems. With the
amplification of the southern wave Southwest Alaska will see
increasing shower chances, including potential light snow, as
diffluence aloft overspreads the state and colder air is advected
southward within the mean flow. Conditions begin to change for
Southcentral beyond Wednesday as high pressure breaks down and a
deepening low moves into the northern Gulf. Above normal chances
for precipitation will exist on Thursday as a result.

BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Ceilings down to MVFR range could persist with areas of
stratus hanging out near 2000 to 3000 ft this morning, though
improvement to VFR is likely sometime later this morning or early
afternoon. Multiple weak disturbances moving east from Prince
William Sound could drive some shower activity off of the Chugach
Mountains into the terminal through this evening. However, any
showers that do make it into west Anchorage are not expected to be
very intense. Light northerly winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&