Gale Warning 558, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
550 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

This mornings satellite imagery shows several features of note, the
first being a rapidly deepening low over the southeast Gulf of
Alaska with a weaker low trailing behind moving into the south-
central Gulf. The SE Gulf low will continue to deepen to ~960 mb
later this morning as it lifts up towards the central Alaska
Panhandle. This dangerous storm will bring very strong winds to the
eastern Gulf and portions of the Panhandle today. While this storm
will not directly impact Southcentral Alaska, it will help to nudge
the weakening low off the eastern Kenai Peninsula coast more inland
over the Peninsula. As such, rain showers will shift westwards this
morning with a deformation like band setting up somewhere between
the Anchorage Bowl and the western Kenai to the Susitna Valley and
Cook Inlet. This band will slowly pivot to the south and west as the
midlevel shortwave rotates over western Southcentral. Showers will
start to off in the afternoon as that low weakens.

Another feature of note this morning is a Siberian low that will
start to dive southward across Southwest Alaska towards Bristol Bay
then Kodiak Island by Saturday morning. This feature will bring much
colder air to western Alaska, the AKPEN, and western Gulf. The
Alaska Range will help to block much of the colder air from moving
into Southcentral but some colder air will filter in this weekend. A
new leeside low will develop on off the eastern Kenai Peninsula in
response to the upper low nearing the AKPEN. The surface low will
not linger as it gets dragged southwards then out into the central
Gulf. Precipitation from this system will be focused along the
eastern Kenai with some upsloping along the higher terrain in the
Copper Basin and along the Alaska Range. Elsewhere across
Southcentral, precipitation chances remain low through the weekend.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The main story for Southwest Alaska will be winds once again.
Gusty northwesterly winds continue to blow through the Eastern
Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula regions as an upper level
trough with its associated surface low drops through Southwest
Alaska from the north. Cold air advection is also be present due
to the northwesterly winds. This is steepening lapse rates and is
allowing wind gusts to reach higher speeds (high-end gale force).
Gaps and passes are seeing higher winds speeds and gusts with the
favorable northwesterly winds. The cold air advection from the
north is allowing for below freezing temperatures in much of the
Kuskokwim Delta as of early Friday morning. The low that is
associated with the upper level trough will bring some
precipitation along with it. Bethel and areas south of the city
could see some brief snowfall this (Friday) morning before the
low continues to track southward. Meanwhile, a ridge is building
into the western Aleutians. This means lower chances for
precipitation along with lower wind speeds. Low stratus and fog is
accompanying the ridge as it moves eastward.

Saturday has the ridge moving further eastward, allowing for
calmer winds and less precipitation in the Eastern Aleutians.
Lingering gusty winds in the Bristol Bay waters and the Alaska
Peninsula areas remain until the ridge arrives in the evening.
Clear skies in the mainland will allow temperatures to drop into
the mid to lower 20s as the cold air remains in place. Looking out
west, a Kamchatka low pushes into the Western Aleutians. This low
will bring rain and gusty winds to the Western Aleutians as it
makes its way east. Warmer air is associated with this low due to
the southerly flow associated with it. The low's front will reach
the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern Aleutians by Sunday morning.
Gusty southeasterly winds and rainfall will affect a wide north-
south swath of the eastern Bering. The winds will not be as
strong as the current systems and will be high end small craft to
gale force in strength. It is likely that the mainland will remain
dry as the low takes a southward track by Monday.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

A quieter weather pattern to start off the new workweek is
expected across Southcentral Alaska, the Aleutian Islands and
Bering Sea. The lingering broad low over the Gulf of Alaska will
finally meander southeastward allowing high pressure to build into
the region, clearing skies and calming winds. Southcentral will
see chilly nights with lows at or near freezing with daytime highs
in the 40s to low 50s. In the Aleutians, stronger northerly winds
may linger into Monday but should ease by Tuesday, while the
Bering Sea stays calmer with seasonable temperatures under the
ridge of high pressure.

The main uncertainty is the path extratropical remnants of
Typhoon Neoguri, currently spinning in the Western Pacific. Some
of the models suggest it could bring gusty gale force winds and
rain to the Central Aleutians as early as late Monday, while
others indicate a slower approach with minimal impact until late
in the forecast period. By Wednesday or Thursday, winds and
showers may spread to the Eastern Aleutians if the storm tracks
closer, but the Bering Sea and Southcentral should remain mostly
unaffected. However, stay tuned for updates as the storm's path
and strength could shift, potentially affecting winds in the
Aleutians towards the end of the forecast period.

DD

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...A period of light rain is still expected to move over the
terminal later this morning. Some lingering uncertainty continues
in terms of how conditions will progress after rain begins this
morning. There are still some hints that the added moisture from
rainfall coupled with light winds through most of the profile will
favor development of low stratus, likely in MVFR range or lower.
If low clouds do develop, it could take some time for them to
erode even as rain lets up later this afternoon. Thus, expect some
potential for MVFR or lower ceilings to persist well into this
evening.

&&