Gale Warning 501, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 PM AKDT Sun Sep 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

It will remain breezy throughout most of Southcentral into the
early overnight hours before subsiding. This includes the Copper
River, Knik and Turnagain Arm winds through west and south
Anchorage. Scattered showers will taper to isolated ones quickly
this evening for most of Interior Southcentral. Moderate to heavy
rain and widespread fog will prevail in Prince William Sound
through late tomorrow morning. Forty-eight hour total rainfall
amounts ranging from 1 to 2 inches. Rainfall totals from this
afternoon through tomorrow morning will be highest from Cordova
eastward. Scattered showers will continue through the day
tomorrow across much of Prince William Sound.  Rainfall will
continue to slowly diminish in the Susitna Valley this evening but
widespread showers will remain through tomorrow afternoon.
Additional runoff into the Yentna and Skwentna Rivers will
continue despite those rivers' levels decreasing. Widespread
cloudy and showery conditions are expected tomorrow across
Southcentral Alaska.

Another storm, currently moving eastward south of the Aleutians, arrives
Tuesday to Southcentral including Kodiak Island. Its front brings
rain and wind to Kodiak Island Tuesday morning with small craft
and gale warning winds through the day; especially through the
Barren Islands. These conditions arrive in the Kenai Peninsula and
the Southcentral Mainland Tuesday afternoon then into Prince
William Sound Tuesday night. A barrier jet along the Prince
William Sound coastline is highly likely Tuesday as the front
approaches. Gap winds across Southcentral will become gusty
Tuesday and Wednesday, too. Moderate to heavy rainfall is also
expected Tuesday and Wednesday across Southcentral as this front
moves across the Gulf of Alaska. The greatest rainfall amounts are
expected along coast from the Eastern Kenai Peninsula
northeastward into Prince William Sound.

-DJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

Former typhoon Peipah has successfully made the journey from the
West Pacific up into the North Pacific, and is now entering the
Aleutian Chain as an extratropical cyclone. It is currently a
deep 988 mb, near- storm force low roughly 290 nautical miles SSE
of Shemya. The low will continue its journey eastward and clip or
track immediately south of the Central Aleutians early Monday
morning with heavy rain and gusty winds. Beginning tonight and
closer to midnight, the front will lift across Adak and Atka with
gale to storm force easterly winds. The front then continues east
and across the Eastern Aleutians throughout the day tomorrow.
Southeasterly gales are expected to push as far east as Cold Bay
before the front begins to diminish in intensity late Monday. On
the backside of the low, gale to storm force winds will become
north to northwesterly across the Central Aleutians tomorrow
afternoon. Gales become more prominent thereafter as the low and
northerly winds spread across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula through Tuesday afternoon.

Storm total rainfall amounts for the Central Aleutians should
reach or exceed 2 inches over the next 24 to 36 hours, with
widespread showers persisting along the front as it pushes through
the Aleutians.

Southwest Alaska remains largely socked in with cloud cover and
scattered showers this evening, thanks to an upper low inland of
the YK Delta. Rain activity and clouds should taper off through
the morning hours tomorrow as the low lifts into the Brooks Range.
High pressure will briefly set in across the region in advance of
Peipah's arrival on Tuesday when widespread shower chances return
to the region. There will be a period where the pressure gradient
across Southwest Alaska favors strong easterly winds through the
Kamishak Gap Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon. Gusty
conditions should be anticipated from New Stuyahok to Iliamna, and
even for Dillingham later Tuesday evening, with potential wind
gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph. Gusty northerly gap winds across
the Alaska Peninsula may persist into the middle of next week as
high pressure builds into the western Bering and the remnants of
Peipah shift eastward into the Gulf of Alaska.

BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...

Weakening system moves from south of the Alaska Peninsula into the
Gulf on Thursday. The associated front nudges against the north
Gulf coast through the end of the week, bringing prolonged
rainfall to the area, heavy at times. Inland precipitation is
expected to be lighter and primarily confined to higher
elevations. Valleys and the lee side of the mountain ranges will
remain mostly dry. Additionally, there may be a period of gusty
winds on the backside of the low through the Barren Islands as
the low center pushes north Thursday evening/night.

Out west and over the Bering and the Aleutian Chain, zonal flow
is forecast to persist, resulting in milder conditions through the
end of the week.

Models are hinting at the development of a North Pacific low south
of the Western Aleutians on Friday. There is poor agreement on
whether the low will track across the Aleutians, bringing another
round of winds and rain, or track well south brining little to no
impacts to the Aleutians through the weekend. There is better
agreement for said low to push towards or into the southern Gulf
but exact track remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Strong Turnagain winds should diminish late this afternoon
as the front in the Sound moves to the east. There are some MVFR
cigs in Cook Inlet so it's possible that cigs go down to MVFR
after the winds diminish and go southerly this evening, but
overall conditions are expected to be VFR.

&&