Gale Warning 488, NWS Anchorage, AK

358 
FZAK52 PAFC 021132
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030030-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 mb low 130 nm W of St. Lawrence Island remains nearly 
stationary through tonight and dissipates in the Gulf of Anadyr Wed 
morning. A 1001 mb North Pacific low 270 nm S of Nikolski this 
afternoon moves to 80 nm SW of Cape Newenham at 1000 mb Wed 
afternoon. This low moves inland of the Kuskokwim Delta through Wed 
night. An additional 1000 mb low North Pacific low moves to 260 nm S 
of Shemya at 989 mb by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ750-030030-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ751-030030-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ752-030030-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ753-030030-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ754-030030-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft after
midnight. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ755-030030-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ756-030030-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ757-030030-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ758-030030-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40
kt out of bays and passes in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft building to 10
ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ759-030030-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ770-030030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ772-030030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ771-030030-
Unalaska Bay-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-030030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ774-030030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ775-030030-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ776-030030-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ777-030030-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ778-030030-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ780-030030-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ781-030030-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ782-030030-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ783-030030-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ784-030030-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ785-030030-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ786-030030-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ787-030030-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ766-030030-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ760-030030-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ761-030030-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ762-030030-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-030030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-030030-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-030030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ767-030030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
332 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 AM AKDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Not much has changed with the synoptic pattern over the past 24 hrs.
Still have a ridge of  high pressure settled over the Gulf with
long wave trough and associated upper low over the Bering. A good
fetch of moisture is still being pulled northwards between the
Gulf high and the Bering low. Since yesterday, several shortwave
troughs have moved around the base of the low and lifted north
across western Alaska. Water vapor satellite imagery shows another
shortwave starting to get its act together as it lifts north
towards the southern AKPen from the Northern Pacific later this
morning. As such, another push of light rain will work its way
eastwards from the AKPen and Bristol Bay region up the Cook Inlet
and Susitna Valley. Once again, most of the light rain will be
confined to the western side of the Inlet and Susitna Valley. A
coastal ridge has been building overnight with gradient increasing
over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. By late morning, typical
gap flow areas such as the Turnagain Arm, Knik, and Copper River
will increase in response to the strengthening gradient. Hi-res
guidance is hinting at some downsloping along the western Kenai
Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl, but some showers may be able to
sneak through. Gusty winds are possible for the areas through
Tuesday morning when the gradient is set to relax.

The quasi-stationary front over Bristol Bay and the AKPen will
receive a reinforcing nudge with this next shortwave then another
nudge as the parent low opens into a wave as it moves over Alaska.
This will shift showers eastwards Monday night through Tuesday
morning. Beyond Tuesday, model solutions begin to differ more
significantly, but the NAM and GFS both have a low moving up
towards Bristol Bay by Wednesday.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Monday to Wednesday)...

Labor Day will be a rainy affair for much of Southwest Alaska on
Monday. An upper-level trough remains entrenched over the Bering
while, at the same time, enhanced Pacific moisture is streaming
along a slow-moving front over Southwest Alaska. Widespread
rainfall will continue moving into Bristol Bay and the Western
Alaska Range through this afternoon before a front finally shifts
east and into the Southcentral side of the Alaska Range. Rainfall
will taper off once this occurs, likely later this evening,
setting up a day of drier weather on Tuesday.

Offshore conditions over the Bering on Monday will be breezy as
the aforementioned upper-level trough gradually pivots eastward.
Beneath the trough, small craft winds and gales will clip the
Pribilof Islands later this evening, eventually overspreading
Nunivak Island and the YK Delta through Midnight tonight. Winds
then weaken into Tuesday morning.

The biggest story, aside from an extended period of rainfall
finally coming to an end across Southwest Alaska tonight, will be
the one day of drier conditions forecast on Tuesday. A North
Pacific low and front will lift northward into the Alaska
Peninsula late Tuesday with another round of widespread rainfall
forecast to spill into Southwest Alaska through Wednesday. There
are still some discrepancies, however, between forecast models,
with the ECMWF slower and stronger with the next system, while the
GFS and NAM are a little faster. While not committing to specific
timing and placement of the track of the low, more rainfall is
all but a given. The slower solution of the ECMWF would keep the
heaviest rainfall offshore of the coast. The solution of the GFS
and NAM would favor moisture moving directly into Southwest
Alaska. Areas across Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley could
see anywhere from another half inch to an inch or precipitation
through Wednesday night. Stay tuned to later forecasts as we work
on sorting out the finer details.

BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Wednesday through Sunday)...

While a stubborn ridge remains centered over the Gulf of Alaska, a
fast-transiting North Pacific low will have made its way north and
will be transitioning across the boundary between the East
Aleutian Borough and the West Aleutian Census Area by Wednesday
morning; this low will bring heavy rain with a deep moisture
fetch and gusty gap winds to the Eastern Aleutians and AKPen
Wednesday and the Southwest Coastline, Bristol Bay to the
Kuskokwim Delta, on Thursday. A long- wave ridge will be affecting
areas further west along the Aleutians through this period, while
southcentral will remain relatively quiet with the ridge to the
south, though gusty gap winds along the PWS and Alaska Range will
be prevalent.

Once the aforementioned low breezes towards the north-Interior,
the two ridges of high pressure, which once bookended the low,
will slowly weaken, creating a messy pattern over mainland Alaska
by early Friday.

Turning west, a deep low will move out of the northwest Pacific
and extend into the western Aleutians as early as Thursday
morning, quickly becoming the prevailing driver across the
Southwest, Pribilofs and the Aleutian Chain. Meanwhile, weak
ridging will continue to prevail across Southcentral, with
chances for winds and rain ahead of the barreling low move into
Kodiak and areas north and east over the course of the day Sunday.
There are model differences as to how quickly the low will
transition out of the Pacific, into the Bering and then inland at
the end of this forecast period, which will dictate wind and rain
timing across Southern Alaska, so stay tuned for updates.

AB

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Ceilings of 5,000 feet with a scattered lower deck are
also possible at times during. The most likely time for these
lower VFR ceilings will be late this afternoon to early evening.
Chances for light rain also increase during this evening with
periods of showers lasting into Tuesday morning.

Light and variable winds early this morning become southeasterly
and increase as the day goes on. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds
bend into the terminal today through Tuesday morning. Peak winds
look to occur this afternoon through tonight with gusts reaching
up to 25 kts at times. Southeast winds remain Tuesday morning but
gusts should be below 20 kts before diminishing further Tuesday
afternoon.

&&