Gale Warning 482, NWS Anchorage, AK

178 
FZAK52 PAFC 301149
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-310045-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 mb low 140 nm NE of Shemya moves to 290 nm SW of St. Matthew 
Island at 991 mb Mon morning. Its initial front moves from the 
Eastern Aleutians to the Southern Alaska Peninsula for this afternoon
and inland of Southwest Alaska through Mon morning. Its trailing 
front moves from the Western Aleutians this afternoon to the Central 
Aleutians and Pribilof Islands by Sun afternoon and to the Kuskokwim 
Delta Coast for Mon morning.


$$

PKZ750-310045-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ751-310045-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ752-310045-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ753-310045-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ754-310045-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft in the morning building to 9 ft in
the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-310045-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft in the morning building to 12 ft in
the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ756-310045-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ757-310045-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ758-310045-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ759-310045-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ770-310045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ772-310045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ771-310045-
Unalaska Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ773-310045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ774-310045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ775-310045-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ776-310045-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ777-310045-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ778-310045-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ780-310045-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ781-310045-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ782-310045-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ783-310045-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ784-310045-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ785-310045-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ786-310045-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ787-310045-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ766-310045-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ760-310045-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ761-310045-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ762-310045-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ763-310045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-310045-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-310045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ767-310045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 AM AKDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key messages:

 - An atmospheric river continues to move across the eastern half
   of Southcentral this morning. Flood Watches remain in effect
   for the eastern Kenai Peninsula and the Susitna Valley. A Flood
   Warning remains in effect for the Yentna River above Lake
   Creek. A Flood Advisory is in effect for the Anchorage Bowl and
   Seward and Bear Creek Neighborhoods until 10 AM this morning.

 - Strong gap winds will continue across the Copper Basin through
   this afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will also redevelop over
   Cook Inlet this morning, with gusts to 40 mph expected from
   Homer to Anchorage. A Special Weather Statement is out for
   portions of the Copper River Basin, the Copper River Valley,
   and the Western Kenai Peninsula.

 - Rain and strong winds will end from west to east through this
   evening as quieter conditions return for the start of the
   weekend.

Discussion:

A very active pattern remains in place across Southcentral this
morning as an atmospheric river continues to move east toward
Prince William Sound and a strong frontal system moves over Cook
Inlet. While the heaviest rain is moving east of Cook Inlet, bands
of moderate to heavy showers are developing continue to stream
over Cook Inlet, Anchorage Bowl, Mat-Su, and western Kenai
Peninsula just out ahead of the front. The persistent rainfall has
elevated numerous creeks and rivers across the area.

Overall, the forecast today through the weekend remains on track.
The main upper trough off to the west will amplify and accelerate
northeast into the Copper River Basin by Friday afternoon, while
the main moisture tap and front sweep across Southcentral from
west to east. Cooler, drier air will advect into the region with
the frontal passage. A colder airmass advecting into the region
through Kamishak Gap, along pressure rises behind the front, will
usher strong southwesterly winds up the Cook Inlet this morning,
persisting into much of Friday. Gusts of 30 to 45 mph are not out
of the question from Homer north to Kenai, with the peak expected
around mid- to late-morning Friday. Gusty southwesterly winds
will also develop over at least West Anchorage through Friday
evening. Periods of rain will end from west to east through Friday
evening as the front and upper trough progress steadily northeast
with time. Ahead of the trough passage, cooling air aloft coupled
with daytime heating over the Copper Basin could yield a few
thunderstorms on Friday afternoon as the air mass briefly becomes
more unstable.

Behind this system, expect clearing skies by Friday afternoon and
evening. Low temperatures overnight Friday into early Saturday
morning could dip into the 30s for some sheltered locations if
winds become calm. Saturday again looks to be much calmer and
quieter as the upper level ridge rebounds overhead. Cloud cover
and rain chances will begin to increase somewhat from late
Saturday into Sunday ahead of a strong low pressure and frontal
system moving over Southwest. Right now, it looks like the best
rainfall chances will stay confined to the Alaska Range and
northern Susitna Valley, but this will depend on how far the front
along with a returning moisture axis is able to work into
Southcentral through Sunday evening.

-AS/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Light and scattered rain showers across the Kuskokwim Delta early
this morning have diminished with partially clearing skies and
pockets of low stratus elsewhere across Southwest Alaska as the
longwave trough axis pushes through the region. The clearing skies
along with cold air advection overnight has allowed temperatures
to drop into the upper 30s across much of Southwest Alaska. Drier
conditions and periods of sunshine are expected through today
across the southwest mainland as weak, transient ridging moves
over the region.

Further west, a dynamic 982 mb low enters the western Bering this
morning as its gale-force front tracks across the central Bering
through this morning into this afternoon. Widespread moderate to
heavy rainfall and low end storm-force gusts along the front are
expected across the Central Aleutians today before peak wind gusts
gradually weaken back to gale strength as the front pushes over
the Eastern Aleutians and Pribilof Islands this afternoon. The
front reaches Southwest Alaska by early Saturday morning, bringing
an end to the brief period of quiet weather.

Another potentially prolonged rainfall event is in store for much
of Southwest Alaska as rain initially reaches the Kuskokwim Delta
and Western Capes on Saturday morning before becoming more
widespread across Southwest Alaska through Saturday evening. Deep
southwesterly flow transporting ample moisture out of the North
Pacific and the front stalling near the coast will again allow for
multiple rounds of rainfall across Southwest Alaska and the
southern AKPen through the weekend into early next week.
Persistent southerly flow in the eastern Bering pushing small
craft to gale-force winds into the northern Kuskokwim Bay may
produce areas of increased surf at times, though the chance for
coastal flooding remains low at this time but will continue to be
monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Thursday)...

At the beginning of next week, a broad longwave trough will be
situated over the western and central Bering Sea, while a longwave
ridge extends up from the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska
toward the Alcan Border. This general pattern looks to hold
through mid-to-late week, aiming a stream of tropical moisture in
excess of one inch of precipitable water between these features,
toward the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska. As a result,
several inches of rainfall are forecast along the Pacific side of
the Alaska Peninsula, potentially in excess of 4 inches for some
locations through Thursday. Lower amounts, broadly speaking 1 to 3
inches are possible for mainland Southwest Alaska. While these
regions are likely to be wet for much of the long term forecast
period, there is uncertainty in the exact orientation of the
atmospheric river, so many locations will likely see several
periods of moderate to heavy rain as the moisture plume wobbles
back and forth (west/east). There is some potential that the moist
southerly flow glances parts of Southcentral, with the Cook Inlet
region and southern Kenai Peninsula with the greatest potential
to see another round of lighter rainfall.

Otherwise, gusty southerly winds from a broad, weakening low
tracking into the northern Bering Sea on Sunday will lead to a low
risk of coastal flooding along the northern Kuskokwim Bay
coastline. Winds decrease on Monday as the low lifts into the
Bering Strait or across the far eastern reaches of Chukotka. High
pressure across the Gulf of Alaska keeps winds light and
conditions generally dry across Southcentral for the duration of
the forecast period (with the exception of the aforementioned
potential for glances of moisture intrusion). By Wednesday, the
next North Pacific low approaches the western Aleutians, bringing
gusty winds, potentially to gale force, and light to moderate
rainfall. The track of this low is particularly uncertain, but it
looks to be fairly slow moving and generally tracks along the
periphery of the Aleutian Chain through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Gusty southeast winds early this morning will turn
southerly to south-southwesterly later this morning with gusts
persisting around 35 kts at times. Gusty winds will begin to
diminish this afternoon and evening with southwesterly winds
becoming around 10 kts by this evening and overnight. Southerly
winds at or less than 10 kts will persist into Saturday morning.
Rain showers will continue at times through the morning hours
with dry conditions returning around noon today to early afternoon
and persisting through Saturday morning. Regardless of the rain
showers, VFR conditions are still expected but with a 5,000 foot
cloud deck at times this morning before ceilings rise and remain
above 5,000 feet early this afternoon.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
919 AM AKDT Fri Aug 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     Landslide        16 E Chickaloon         61.80N 147.98W
08/28/2025                   Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Emergency Mngr

            Rockslide by the Glenn Highway past Sutton.
            No injuries or damage.

1128 AM     Flood            1 WNW Anchor Point      59.77N 151.83W
08/28/2025                   Kenai Peninsula    AK   Dept of Highways

            Washout on the Sterling Highway northbound
            shoulder near milepost 157 just before the
            Old Sterling intersection.

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