Gale Warning 447, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Monday through Wednesday evening)...

Mostly clear skies and temperatures reaching the upper 60s to low
70s this afternoon across much of Southcentral look to continue
through tomorrow as an upper level ridge pushes eastward across
the region. A chance for an isolated shower across higher
elevations surrounding the Copper River Basin remains through this
evening as a weak shortwave tracks across the area. Another weak
trough moving along the Alaska Range for Tuesday will promote
diurnally driven convection in the form of isolated to scattered
showers over the higher terrain of the eastern Copper River Basin.
The mainly clear skies tonight will again allow for the
possibility of low stratus and patchy fog to develop across
coastal and valley locations into Tuesday morning, mainly for Cook
Inlet and lower Susitna Valley locations. The warming trend will
continue over interior Southcentral as the warm and dry conditions
persist into midweek, with daytime highs climbing well into the
70s by Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler along the coast with
gusty afternoon sea breezes.

The next big weather-maker comes on Wednesday when a former
Pacific tropical system combines with a system moving south in the
Bering. The surface low consolidates in the North Pacific, just
south and between the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska
Peninsula, by Wednesday morning. The front will lift into the
Gulf and across Kodiak Island all day Wednesday before reaching
the southern Kenai Peninsula by Wednesday evening. With previous
connections to the tropics, this system looks particularly wet;
especially for Kodiak Island where 2 to 2.5 inches of rain is not
out of the question from Wednesday morning through Thursday
morning. In addition to the steady rainfall, widespread easterly
gales are expected along the front as it lifts north through
Thursday morning. High-end Gale to Storm-force gusts are also
possible across the Barren Islands Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday morning)...

A Bering Sea low is currently sending a front into the Southwest
coast of Alaska, bringing light rain and southeasterly winds. It
will weaken as it moves inland tonight, but gusty southeasterly
winds and showers will linger along the Alaska Peninsula and
Bristol Bay region tomorrow. Conditions will be warmer and drier
farther inland with high temperatures reaching into the 70s in
the Kuskokwim Valley tomorrow.

Remnants of Tropical Storm Krosa are traversing south of the
Aleutian Islands today before merging with the Bering Sea low
tomorrow, drawing up significant tropical moisture and
reamplifying the system. Heavy rain is expected for the Alaska
Peninsula tomorrow evening through Wednesday with the communities
of Perryville and Chignik seeing the potential for rainfall totals
in excess of 3 inches. Gale force winds are also forecast to blow
across the northern Alaska Peninsula into Bristol Bay as the
remnants of Krosa merge with the pre-existing Bering low. The
front then lifts north across Kodiak Island and mainland Southwest
Wednesday evening, pushing lighter rain and gusty winds across
the Bristol Bay and Lake Iliamna region.

Another hazard possible with the remnants of Krosa is increased
instability leading to marine thunderstorms south of, and
potentially moving over the Alaska Peninsula, Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Friday through Monday...

Synoptic situation starts with a a dissipating upper level low
over Kodiak. It gets absorbed into the larger upper
level/deepening trough over the central part of the State as the
weekend starts. The upper level ridge over the Eastern Gulf of
Alaska will continue to migrate eastward. A secondary, positively
tilted, upper level shortwave trough will extend from the Bering
Strait and into the western portion of the Bering Sea.

The upper level trough over the central portions of the State
will deepen and dig down the Alaskan west coast then extend down
into the North Pacific towards the end of the period. The European
and Canadian models keep it as an open trough and are more likely
the reasonable solution. This could allow more tropical moisture
into the developing surface feature and increase the precipitation
chances along the South Central coastal regions.

Model guidance is in lessor agreement with the Bering Sea surface
features with the GFS forming a surface low and fronts in the
central bearing sea with the Canadian and European models allowing
the surface low and fronts to form south of the Central Aleutians
and AKPEN region early next week. The reasonable solution would
favor the latter scenario.

DD

&&.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR and light winds are generally expected to persist
through the TAF period. There is a low but non-zero chance of fog
/ low stratus developing tonight across Cook Inlet and moving
north into Anchorage. Any fog or low stratus that does move across
the area should diminish by mid-morning Tuesday.

&&