Gale Warning 414, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 AM AKDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

Another exceptionally beautiful day is about to get underway for
much of Southcentral Alaska. Satellite imagery reveals mostly
clear skies have graced the area overnight with the exception of
some isolated patches of mid-level clouds, as well as a few
upper-level cirrus closer to Yukon. Water vapor imagery shows an
upper-level low across the eastern Gulf of Alaska gradually
drifting farther southeast, thus allowing upper-level ridging to
amplifying as it extends from interior AK southwestward into the
North Pacific. Alas, a summer weather regime.

The main forecast challenge once again lies in the potential for
afternoon/evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. Despite the
ridge building in, the atmosphere will remain moderately unstable
due to residual cold air aloft. Heating along the higher terrain,
particularly that of the Talkeetnas and to a lesser extent
Chugach and Wrangells, will aid in some convection initiating
during the afternoon. In any case, shower or tstorm coverage
looks minimal.

Temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the work
week with temperatures in the 70s expected for many of the valley
/ lower-elevation locations, with 60s anticipated closer to
coastline. Increased onshore flow should bring slightly cooler
weather on Saturday, but sunny and comparatively(to the last
several weeks)-warm weather remains on deck for the weekend.

-Brown

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Dry conditions will continue across Southwest Alaska through the
end of the week, with exceptions along the Kuskokwim Delta coast,
Nunivak Island, and the Western Capes who will see continued rain
showers through at least tonight.

Another separate low pushes out of the North Pacific
towards the Aleutian Chain tonight into Friday morning. Its front
brings a reinvigorated round of precipitation to the Eastern
Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula as well as a swath of
southerly small craft winds with areas of gales through the
Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula. Small craft to
gale force winds will move north, spreading along the Southwest
coast on Friday.

A Special Weather Statement has been issued for prolonged
southerly flow into coastal Kuskokwim Delta. These winds will
push additional water towards the coast, potentially raising water
levels higher than the normal highest tide line. This pattern
will persist into the early weekend, and as the front approaches
the Southwest coastline on Friday, onshore winds may increase,
decreasing by the late weekend.

-KM/CL

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

High pressure will generally continue for the northern half of
the state. Meanwhile, a low will move into the Bering and another
in the eastern Gulf will retrograde westward into next week. A
North Pacific low will drift east along the Aleutians towards the
Gulf. The phasing of these troughs will keep the weather unsettled
across much of the Bering, Aleutians, and towards the
southwestern coast and possibly for the southcentral coasts.
Periods of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds will be likely
along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula given the plentiful
moisture advection associated with this storm.

Some differences appear in the models for the low in the Gulf and
the weather outcome will depend on how it interacts with the
approaching north Pacific low. A slightly northward movement will
lead to higher chances of showers along the southcentral coast,
while a southward movement of the low into the Gulf could mean the
bulk of the precipitation will remain farther offshore. Over the
mainland, easterly waves emanating from the Gulf low could mean
afternoon showers or thunderstorm development. Toward midweek
however, the ridge appears to strengthen inland, suppressing the
trough southward, leaving warmer and drier conditions more likely
across Mainland Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. A light sea
breeze is expected this afternoon.

&&