Gale Warning 411, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

Skies will continue to clear as a low pressure system in the Gulf
of Alaska pushes south and a high pressure ridge continues to
push into Southcentral. Temperatures will also steadily rise over
the next couple days with highs in the mid 60's to mid 70's for
Thursday and Friday.

The big uncertainty to the forecast will be the extent of
afternoon and evening showers and potential thunderstorms today
and tomorrow, and to a lesser extent, Friday. The atmosphere is
rather unstable with residual cool air aloft, even with the ridge
building in. Mountains will provide some elevated heating to help
initiate this afternoon and evening convection, though it should
mostly remain over the mountains. Another interesting factor that
could weigh in is that there has been some recent snowfall of
many of the Southcentral Mountains with the very cold system over
the past week. This could then inhibit some of that elevated
heating just mentioned. As always, there is a balance of opposing
forces! So while there should be a good bit of sunny weather
upcoming, there does remain the possibility for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms over the Talkeetna and Chugach
Mountains and into the Copper River Basin today and tomorrow.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

A low in the Western Aleutians continues to bring light rain
showers and cloudy skies to the area. Most of Southwest Alaska
will continue to see drier conditions with mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies today. Cloud cover will continue to spill eastward to
cover more of Southwest Alaska over the next couple of days.
Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta coast will continue to see
periods of rain over that same time.

Another separate low pushes out of the North Pacific
towards the Aleutian Chain Thursday night into Friday morning. Its
front brings a reinvigorated round of precipitation to the
Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula as well as a
swath of southerly small craft winds with areas of gales through
the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula.

A Special Weather Statement has been issued for prolonged
southerly flow into coastal Kuskokwim Delta late this week. These
winds will push additional water towards the coast, potentially
raising water levels higher than the normal highest tide line.
This pattern will persist into the early weekend, and as the front
approaches the Southwest coastline by late Friday, onshore winds
may increase, decreasing by the late weekend.

-KM/CL

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

High pressure will generally continue for the northern half of
the state. Meanwhile, a low will move into the Bering and another
in the eastern Gulf will retrograde westward into next week. A
North Pacific low will drift east along the Aleutians towards the
Gulf. The phasing of these troughs will keep the weather unsettled
across much of the Bering, Aleutians, and towards the
Southwestern coast and possibly for the Southcentral coasts.
Periods of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds will be likely
along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula given the plentiful
moisture advection associated with this storm.

Some differences appear in the models for the low in the Gulf and
the weather outcome will depend on how it interacts with the
approaching north Pacific low. A slightly northward movement will
lead to higher chances of showers along the Southcentral coast,
while a southward movement of the low into the Gulf could mean the
bulk of the precipitation will remain farther offshore. Over the
mainland, easterly waves emanating from the Gulf low could mean
afternoon showers or thunderstorm development. Toward midweek
however, the ridge appears to strengthen inland, suppressing the
trough southward, leaving warmer and drier conditions more likely
across Mainland Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail. A sea breeze is expected
during the day with southerly, light winds overnight. Showers
could develop within the vicinity during peak heating hours.

&&