Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2025
Gale Warning 355, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at May 7, 2025, 2:06 PM AKDT. It was in force for 13 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 7, 2025, 2:06 PM AKDT (22:06 UTC)
- Expired
- May 8, 2025, 3:15 AM AKDT
- In force
- 13 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
890 FZAK52 PAFC 072206 CWFALU Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ199-081115- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS... A 1007 mb low 35 nm S of Saint Paul dissipates near Saint Paul by Thu morning. A 989 mb low 150 nm SW of Attu maintains its strength as it moves to 130 nm N of Seguam Island by Fri afternoon. $$ PKZ750-081115- Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ751-081115- Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$ PKZ752-081115- Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ753-081115- Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. .THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. $$ PKZ754-081115- Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. .FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ755-081115- Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft. Rain. .FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. $$ PKZ756-081115- Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ757-081115- Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ758-081115- Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ759-081115- Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$ PKZ770-081115- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft. Rain. .FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ772-081115- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain. .FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ771-081115- Unalaska Bay- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...S wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain showers. .FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ773-081115- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. .FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. $$ PKZ774-081115- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. .FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. .MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. $$ PKZ775-081115- Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. .FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. $$ PKZ776-081115- Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. .FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. $$ PKZ777-081115- Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. .FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. $$ PKZ778-081115- Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. $$ PKZ780-081115- Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ781-081115- Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ782-081115- Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 24 ft. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. $$ PKZ783-081115- Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. .FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. $$ PKZ784-081115- Adak to Kiska Bering Side- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 7 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ785-081115- Adak to Kiska Pacific Side- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. .FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$ PKZ786-081115- Kiska to Attu Bering Side- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. .THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. .THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ787-081115- Kiska to Attu Pacific Side- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. .THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ766-081115- Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. .FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ760-081115- Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ761-081115- Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog. .THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. .SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ762-081115- Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Areas of fog. .THU...S wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. .SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ763-081115- Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot. .THU...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. .FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. .SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. .SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. .MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. $$ PKZ764-081115- Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ765-081115- North and West of Nunivak Island- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. .THU...E wind 15 kt. .THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. .SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. $$ PKZ767-081115- Saint Matthew Island Waters- 206 PM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 15 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. .THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. .THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. .FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. .SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at May 7, 9:38 AM AKDT, 4 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 7, 9:38 AM AKDT, 4 hours 28 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 938 AM AKDT Wed May 7 2025 Updated aviation discussion .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... The low in the Gulf continues to slowly move southeast. Due to the orientation of the low, pressure gradients are still favorable for gusty southeasterly winds out of gaps in the Anchorage, Matanuska Valley, and the Copper River Basin areas. Winds are quite light everywhere else, including in the marine areas. Our focus shifts to the north as an upper level low sweeps in from the northeast along the Alaska Range. This will drive up precipitation chances in the Susitna Valley and the Copper River Basin. This precipitation will be stratiform in nature, so expect widespread light rainfall in these regions. Snow and rain has already been reported in Glennallen this morning. Snowfall accumulations is possible north of Glennallen up to the Richardson Highway through Paxson and the Tok Cut Off this morning. Accumulations of about an inch of snow is possible, more or less depending upon how soon temperatures warm up and changes to rainfall along with inevitable compaction. This Interior low will also allow for mostly cloudy skies down to Anchorage and parts of the Kenai Peninsula. There is still some uncertainty with this upper level low in its track and its strength. Its extent southward will affect precipitation chances and lower cloud cover in the aforementioned areas. Wind speeds will not be affected much by this system. Due to the low placement coinciding with the Gulf low, southwesterly flow will be favorable over the next couple days. In particular, Cook Inlet communities could experience breezy south to southwesterly winds all the way into the Susitna Valley. Sea breezes along the Kenai-Cook Inlet coast and Anchorage may become enhanced during the afternoon, especially for Thursday. The low across the Alaska Range will continue to drift west Thursday and precipitation chances will gradually diminish in response. The low in the Gulf will still be hanging around and will swing a shortwave up along the northern Gulf from east to west, increasing wind speeds to small craft along the coast Friday. Inland winds will remain on the lighter side. Precipitation chances along the coast will increase with this wave. The potential for convective showers returns Thursday and more so for Friday, but lightning chances at this time appear to be low. -JAR/Rux && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday morning)... The low pressure that has been stationary south of Kodiak Island the last few days continues to slowly weaken as it meanders farther southward into the North Pacific today. A weak upper-level low across interior Alaska will help to produce some scattered showers across the southwestern interior this afternoon. There is also the possibility for a few isolated thunderstorms as well, mainly across the interior. This will be the case for the next few afternoons as well with lightning strike potential being increasingly confined to the interior and Western Alaska Range. Meanwhile, a weak front will deliver some light snow and rain/snow mix to the Pribilof Islands this morning before precipitation tapers off in the afternoon; little to no accumulation is expected. Light rain showers are possible across the Eastern Aleutians with this system. An upper-level low south of St. Lawrence Island help to keep the weather unsettled across the Pribilofs for Thursday with more light snow and rain/snow mix at times. A weak area of low pressure may clip the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island Thursday night into Friday bringing some light snow to the area. This activity tapers off through Friday morning. A larger North Pacific low will send its front, along with a push of warmer air, eastward across the Aleutians Thursday through Saturday. Rain is expected to accompany this front, along with small-craft winds and some gusts up to gale-force. Gusty winds out of the southeast will pick up through the gaps and passes of the southern Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians starting Thursday as the front approaches. Cold Bay looks to see the gustiest of winds with winds approaching 40 mph by Friday. The low pressure itself straddles the Aleutian Chain and makes it the Central Aleutians by Friday before lifting northward to the central Bering Sea west of the Pribilofs for Saturday. While there could be some rain/snow mix at the onset of precipitation across the Pribilofs Saturday morning, expect mostly rain due to the southeasterly winds. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)... Compared to yesterday, model guidance for the day 4 through 7 time period has trended toward a more amplified upper level pattern. Model spread remains quite large with individual storms and features, though the large scale evolution is similar. Starting out on Saturday, upper level ridging over southern AK looks favorable to produce a good amount of sunshine, normal to above normal temperatures (in the 50s to around 60), and mostly dry conditions. Meanwhile, a trough will extend from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of AK, with weak surface lows likely. Model spread is particularly large with position of the Gulf low, which creates lots of uncertainty in the weather for Kodiak and the Gulf coast. In any case, any impacts of precipitation and wind would be short- lived. For now, the forecast leans toward the ensemble mean which keeps the bulk of impacts offshore. As we continue through the weekend attention will shift to a rapidly deepening low over the north-central Pacific and associated amplification of the upper level flow. Model guidance has trended toward a deeper low and further west low track, taking the low northward into the Bering Sea sometime Sunday or Monday. Even with the fastest of solutions, southern Alaska looks mostly sunny and dry on Sunday as the ridge building out ahead of the Pacific low approaches southern AK. Strong winds and precipitation will initially affect the Bering Sea and Aleutians. In a change from yesterday, a frontal system will then drive eastward toward southern AK, likely bringing winds and rain to the region Monday through Tuesday. With a low track to the northern Bering Sea, will need to keep an eye on potential for storm surge along the SW AK coast. Unsettled weather will likely continue behind the deep low, with strong and progressive upper level flow and additional areas of cyclogenesis (storm development) over the North Pacific. -SEB && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will continue. Lots of uncertainty today with winds. The Turnagain Arm wind continues this morning despite some model guidance shifting to and up-Inlet and eventually a sea breeze this afternoon. However, higher resolution guidance keeps the light Turnagain Arm wind through the evening. Currently the TAF is a mix of the up-Inlet flow and weak Turnagain wind. There is a still a chance that a sea breeze develops this afternoon and evening. Showers are less likely today, even if they develop, will remain along the mountains. &&
The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2:17 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| May 7, 3:08 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 11 hr | |
| May 7, 2:06 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 13 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.