Gale Warning 314, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKDT Sun Apr 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A North Pacific low moves into the southern Gulf of Alaska this
morning and will track towards the Barren Islands today before
backtracking and cutting a path towards Yakutat on Monday.

Another round of gales is expected along the northern Coast today
and widespread across the Gulf by tonight. Strong down Inlet gale
force winds ramp up this afternoon, with small craft spilling into
northern Shelikof Strait. Gale force (39+ mph) winds will also be
prevalent along the ridgetops of the Kenai and western Chugach
mountains, with winds to small craft (24+ mph) for the ridgetops
near Cordova and Valdez.

Moderate to heavy precipitation will be mostly confined to the
coastal areas, with drier conditions expected further inland and
along downslope areas such as Anchorage and western Kenai. Some
warmer air has moved in with a front yesterday evening, raising
snow levels enough to produce rain at the surface. Rain is
expected to continue at the surface initially, however, with some
colder air moving in behind the front, snow levels may drop enough
for rain to transition back to snow Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

The current Winter Weather Advisories/Warnings remain in place as
a low in Bristol Bay will pivot westward this morning across the
bay and eventually southward during the rest of the day in the
Eastern Bering. Gusty winds, snowfall, and blowing snow continue
across the mainland Southwest Alaska coast (Kuskokwim Delta
coast/Nunivak Island), southern Alaska Peninsula, and Eastern
Aleutians. The key points to these advisories are as follows:

- Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Blizzard Warning: Snow and
  blowing snow lasting through this morning.
- Southern Alaska Peninsula Winter Weather Advisory: Snow, blowing
  snow, and gusty winds until this evening.
- Eastern Aleutians Winter Weather Advisory: Snow, blowing snow,
  and gusty winds continuing until this afternoon.

The main weather-maker continues to be a low pressure center in
the eastern Bering Sea this morning. Currently its front is
sweeping across the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island this
morning. The low itself will move southward towards and over the
southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) through this afternoon before
dissipating this evening. Snow, blowing snow, and gusty northerly
winds will continue for the Eastern Aleutians through this
afternoon and the southern AKPEN through early this evening. While
conditions improve this evening, winds will remain gusty across
the Eastern Aleutians, southern AKPEN, and Pribilof Islands
through tonight with snow showers lingering across the southern
AKPEN. Meanwhile, a low in the Gulf of Alaska tracks westward
towards the Barren Islands through tonight into early Monday
morning which will give interior Bristol Bay and the northern
AKPEN rain/snow mix with the possibility of a couple inches of
snow accumulation depending on precipitation intensity.

Further west, a weak shortwave across the western
Aleutians/western Bering continues to move east today through
Monday before weakening. This will give the Central Aleutians a
round of snow showers today through Monday afternoon. An
additional low dropping out of Kamchatka looks weak at this point
with most precipitation confined to the Bering as it moves south
through Tuesday. A ridge builds across the Western Aleutians
through Tuesday behind the next impactful North Pacific low
lifting northward for Tuesday into Wednesday.

The aforementioned North Pacific low will initially send its
front into the Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN Tuesday
morning before advancing north to mainland Southwest Alaska by
Tuesday afternoon. The front pushes inland through Wednesday
morning. There is still some uncertainty in the overall placement
and track of this low through Wednesday morning. As of now, it
appears as if the Eastern Aleutians will once again find
themselves on the edge of the warm and cold side of the system.
With a more east and south track, cold air can be locked in longer
and allow for more snow. Conversely, a more northwest track would
allow warmer air to work in quicker changing precipitation over
to rain. Regardless, while the AKPEN might start as a period of
snow or rain/snow mix Tuesday morning, warmer air will surge
northward as the front lifts to mainland Southwest through the day
Tuesday and into Wednesday with precipitation quickly changing to
rain. Also of note will be the strong gusty winds that the low
and front will bring. Storm-force winds will certainly be possible
across the North Pacific south of the Eastern Aleutians and into
the Bering Sea north of the Eastern Aleutians Tuesday evening into
Wednesday. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates as the active
pattern looks to persist across the Southwestern mainland and
eastern Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wed through Sat)...

The progressive high amplitude pattern across the Alaskan upper
level forecast is expected though the extended periods, aided by
some pretty strong jet support. The main feature is an elongated
upper trough extending from the Arctic through the Bering into the
North Pacific on Wednesday and Thursday, tracking eastward along
the Alaska Peninsula. This trough is expected to weaken as it
moves into the interior of Alaska by the end of next week. In the
wake of this system, expect a new area of high pressure to build
back into western Alaska for next weekend.

The high amplitude of the approaching low will bring high winds
to the Aleutian and AKPEN late next week with moderate to heavy
rain along the coast transitioning to snow in the higher
elevations. As the low moves east, expect the intensity of
precipitation in southcentral Alaska to decrease, but remnant
precipitation will likely continue into the next weekend.

- Baker

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The combination of a strong Turnagain Arm wind and tight
pressure gradient over Cook Inlet should keep the flow down-inlet
and away from the terminal this morning. The down-inlet flow
strengthens as the day wears on as a low pressure system moves
near Kodiak and the Kenai Peninsula. Strong cross barrier winds
should keep conditions VFR through Sunday afternoon. Vicinity
showers are possible Sunday evening as spillover precipitation may
permit MVFR conditions.

-AM

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
202 PM AKDT Sun Apr 13 2025

AKZ701>704-711>714-721>728-731-732-735-741>751-141200-
Anchorage-Anchorage Hillside / Eagle River-East Turnagain Arm-
Portage-Lower Matanuska Valley-Hatcher Pass-
Sutton / Upper Matanuska Valley-Eureka / Tahneta Pass-
Southern Kachemak Bay-SW Kenai Peninsula-NW Kenai Peninsula-
Skilak Lake-Southern Kenai Mtns-Interior Kenai Peninsula-
Turnagain Pass-West Prince William Sound & Whittier-Valdez-
Thompson Pass-Cordova-Northern Copper Valley-
Western Copper Valley-Central Copper Valley-Ernestine-
Western Susitna Valley-Southern Susitna Valley-
Central Susitna Valley-Northern Susitna Valley-
Southern Copper Valley-Tok Cutoff-McCarthy-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Eklutna,
Anchorage Hillside, Upper Eagle River, Indian, Girdwood, Portage,
Palmer, Wasilla, Big Lake, Hatcher Pass, Sutton, Chickaloon,
Eureka, Tahneta Pass, Lake Louise, Seldovia, Halibut Cove,
Nanwalek, Homer, Anchor Point, Ninilchik, Clam Gulch, Kenai,
Soldotna, Sterling, Nikiski, Cooper Landing, Skilak Lake, Seward,
Moose Pass, Summit Lake, Hope, Turnagain Pass, Whittier, Chenega,
Valdez, Thompson Pass, Cordova, Tatitlek, Paxson, Nelchina,
Tolsona, Mendeltna, Glennallen, Gakona, Copper Center, Tonsina,
46 Mile, Skwentna, Willow, Talkeetna, Trapper Creek, Petersville,
Chulitna, Broad Pass, Denali Highway, Kenny Lake, Chitina,
Chistochina, Slana, Mentasta Lake, Nebesna, and McCarthy
202 PM AKDT Sun Apr 13 2025

...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT...

A short duration of strong and gusty southeasterly winds will
affect nearly all of Southcentral tonight. Winds will arrive along
the north Gulf coast and Prince William Sound regions between 7pm
and 11pm this evening, then spread inland between 11pm and 2am.
Most areas can expect winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts as high as
40 mph. The strongest winds will occur through mountain passes and
at higher elevations of area mountains, including Portage Valley,
Turnagain Arm and the Upper Hillside of Anchorage, the Eagle
River and South Fork Valleys, the Knik River Valley into Palmer,
and the Copper River. Winds gusts for these areas will reach 60
mph, with isolated higher gusts. The strongest winds will only
last an hour or two at any one location. Winds will then diminish
overnight into Monday morning.

Colder air will arrive with the winds, leading to a quick
transition from rain to snow along the entire coastal zone late
this evening into the overnight hours. This includes Prince
William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Locally heavy snow
showers will push onshore from the Gulf, leading to localized
brief periods of white- out conditions. Thunder is also possible
in these showers, especially over the northern Gulf coastal
waters. Anyone traveling the Seward Highway corridor overnight
should use caution and be prepared for rapidly changing weather
conditions.